North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/lekhashupeck/status/1448698473348542466

State senate draft

Democrats could try a VRA lawsuit between 1 and 2 for the county splits but I think those clusters were forced by the algorithm. Nothing too crazy besides Wilmington I guess. Fayetteville I guess is weird but honestly just blame the algorithm there.

Seems to be 20 Biden districts in 2020 although the Northern Wake + Granville would be relatively close.

Robeson Scotland and Hoke being together is great for the Lumbee though.


For Democrats to win a majority they need to win the Nash/Franklin/Vance district which is Trump +1, Wilmington district which is like Trump +3,Robeston,Scott, Hoke which is Trump +8 but Clinton +2 the Wilson/Wayne district at Trump +6, and Cabarrus county which is Trump +8 and zooming left

Looks like they turned the Wilmington seat into a Trump 2020 seat.  What are the Presidential numbers on the Moore-Fayetteville seat?  I assume that was another Biden seat that shifted to Trump?  What was the other district that changed from Biden to Trump (I think there were previously 23 Biden seats).

Like Trump +18, Definitely is ugly but it can be defended under the purpose of keeping Fayetteville whole and being forced by county clusters. Currently the 2nd Fayetville district is paired with Hoke county and not Moore.



Now that Wake and Mecklenburg are relatively uniform(The GOP can still win 2 seats out of Wake and 1 seat in South meck) the crazy gerrymandering just isn't there.  Strict County split rules arent always the best(See SD01/SD02) but they did limit gerrymandering .

County splitting rules seem to be the way to go.  Honestly, every state should have a rule that says you can only split 1 county per congressional district and/or you can only split a county once unless it's literally the population of more than 2 districts.

New England counties basically don't exist. Although to be fair outside of South East MA they work fairly well for CD's. It does get ugly down there. CT is amazing. One East seat. Then one seat each for the 3 big counties and one leftover seat in the NW that is currently slightly gerrymandered as a leftover .

[lfromnj]

The thing about the county cluster rule is that it basically acts as an insurance policy, preventing each party from getting thrown out by an overpowered gerrymander.

My big issue with it tbh is that the clusters often don't make any sense with reference to geography (as seen in the above discussion) or communities--you get jokes like Moore+Cumberland.

Yeah state senate is pretty much restricted in what the GOP can do. The only real gerrymandering is in Wilmington. They may have cherry picked a few precincts in Mecklenburg and Wake as well I guess but nothing crazy. I guess Democrats could wish that the Guilford and Cumberland R districts are more compact and also more D but the seats there aren't anything crazy.Statehouse has a lot more freedom for gerrymandering as there are multiple county cluster options. Along with that you can carve out more pockets.

[lfromnj]

I remain confused as to why R gerrymanders keep giving Watauga to Cawthorn. Are they that confident in their chances there, or are they ambivalent about Cawthorn's electoral position? It would cost them nothing to make that district likely R rather than Lean R.

Not sure, Some of it could be that they are working without partisan data and don't remember exact details. Maybe Tim Moore has certain demands?

[lfromnj]

Asheville state house should be interesting. Democrats do have an incumbency deal there in place right now and I wonder if the GOP will keep that. Asheville is super blue but if you just draw one district with 90k in the center covering most of Asheville besides the southern arm the rest of the county is 50/50 by 2020 numbers You could definitely get an R seat out of this but right now after Democrats flipped both seats which were 50/50 in 2018 the GOP shored them both up by triple splitting Asheville.

[lfromnj]

A lot of these maps have NC-05 taking a deep dive into Greensboro--the Republicans might be thinking that putting Boone and Greensboro in the same district might be taking things too far, especially given the big swings to Democrats in the former.

That's a very good point, thank you.

I also wonder if the awkward western split of Watauga might come from trying to do this without miffing Virginia Foxx. Foxx lives in Avery right over the county line, but started her political career in Watauga County government and used to work at App. She might want the area near her home so she doesn't get slammed as a full on carpetbagger.

By the way Sol, how should Buncombe have its 3 state house districts ideally?

[lfromnj]

https://www.johnlocke.org/update/redistricting-dilemmas-all-the-kings-horses-and-all-the-kings-men-cannot-put-caldwell-county-back-together-again/

https://www.johnlocke.org/update/redistricting-dilemmas-legislators-must-either-split-fayetteville-or-surround-it/

https://www.johnlocke.org/update/redistricting-dilemmas-if-you-aint-packing-asheville-youre-cracking-asheville/

Some interesting articles on the state legislative maps from some conservative think tank.

1st article is just about some rural county in western NC and has no partisan implications but shows a good explanation of how the county clusters can be a bit annoying to certain communities and infuriate legislators.
2nd is about the ugly Moore/Cumberland district. Obviously the GOP would prefer to keep Fayetteville whole but it just showed both options from a relatively non partisan perspective.
The third article is arguing for a sort of proportional gerrymander which would benefit the GOP as of from now but they aren't wrong in that the old map kept Asheville whole while creating 2 swing seats .
 The new map just has 3 Safe D seats by cracking Asheville 3 ways. It would still be better for Democrats to have an Asheville pack and 2 swing seats as those swing seats would probably be left of the median district compared to 2 Safe D and a Likely R.

[lfromnj]

https://sites.duke.edu/quantifyinggerrymandering/files/2021/08/countyClusters2020.pdf
Never mind. There were 2 choices for the NE seats.

This other choice creates a Biden +4 seat.

[lfromnj]

A lot of these maps have NC-05 taking a deep dive into Greensboro--the Republicans might be thinking that putting Boone and Greensboro in the same district might be taking things too far, especially given the big swings to Democrats in the former.

That's a very good point, thank you.

I also wonder if the awkward western split of Watauga might come from trying to do this without miffing Virginia Foxx. Foxx lives in Avery right over the county line, but started her political career in Watauga County government and used to work at App. She might want the area near her home so she doesn't get slammed as a full on carpetbagger.

By the way Sol, how should Buncombe have its 3 state house districts ideally?

I think it's pretty obviously 1 Asheville district and two outer seats. Though splitting Asheville isn't horrible--a lot of the neighborhoods have stuff in common with the suburbs.

Here's an interesting idea that arguably makes sense. Blue seems to be the upscale part of the county right?

[lfromnj]

So David Price is retiring. Wonder if the Republicans will try to draw out his district to prevent another Dem from winning there

Why would the GOP ever want to crack Durham and Chapel Hill?
Super high turnout areas that are 75% +D.

No it is pretty much given now that the goal is to just remove the 3 rural/exurban counties attached to this district and add a few ten thousand more from Wake. That is the one constant in all the maps that has happened in that it is just Durham + OC.

[lfromnj]

No it is pretty much given now that the goal is to just remove the 3 rural/exurban counties attached to this district and add a few ten thousand more from Wake. That is the one constant in all the maps that has happened in that it is just Durham + OC.

The current NC-4 doesn't have that. That was a previous NC-4 earlier in the decade.

It has Granville/Franklin and the Eastern part of Chatham.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/lekhashupeck/status/1448698473348542466

State senate draft

Democrats could try a VRA lawsuit between 1 and 2 for the county splits but I think those clusters were forced by the algorithm. Nothing too crazy besides Wilmington I guess. Fayetteville I guess is weird but honestly just blame the algorithm there.

Seems to be 20 Biden districts in 2020 although the Northern Wake + Granville would be relatively close.

Robeson Scotland and Hoke being together is great for the Lumbee though.


For Democrats to win a majority they need to win the Nash/Franklin/Vance district which is Trump +1, Wilmington district which is like Trump +3,Robeston,Scott, Hoke which is Trump +8 but Clinton +2 the Wilson/Wayne district at Trump +6, and Cabarrus county which is Trump +8 and zooming left

What are the 2020 numbers on the congressional NC-1?

Biden +0.2

[lfromnj]

Statehouse minority leader is being moved from a Biden +22 to Biden +900 votes district.

https://twitter.com/ForwardCarolina/status/1450891182280691718

North Carolina R's literally pull a Mattis !

[lfromnj]

Statehouse minority leader is being moved from a Biden +22 to Biden +900 votes district.

https://twitter.com/ForwardCarolina/status/1450891182280691718

North Carolina R's literally pull a Mattis!

I think this tweet does not understand the redistricting process at play here in North Carolina. Given the requirements made around clustering counties, it is inevitable that Reives would no longer sit in a massively Biden-favoring district. Last cycle, Chatham county, a county Biden won by 11.5%, was paired with Durham county, home of the city of Durham. Durham gave Biden 80% of the vote to Trump's 18% and the three precincts taken from the county to bring Reives's district up to population all roughly split that way too. Now, after the 2020 Census, Durham was optimally matched with Person county to its north. Chatham is now in a five county cluster of which it is by far the most Democratic of those counties. Even if you were to try and create the most Biden district possible in the cluster while abiding by the assembly's own rules, Trump would still win it 49.6% to 49.1%, and that district wouldn't even include the Reives residence. In fact, the only reason that the current draft map gives Reives a Biden district at all is because the NC GOP, in violation of its own redistricting criteria, is splitting Moore county, something that shouldn't be done given Moore's population.

The NC GOP moderately used deviation to add an extra precinct to shift it from Biden +6 to Biden +1.  The rest of the districts in the cluster are relatively underpopulated while this one is nearly 5%(max legal) overpopulated. Really not the biggest gerrymander in the history of the world but it is funny to note.


I guess as you said the NC GOP is violating other criteria in favor of compactness which favors Reives in the end. However this does make sure Democrats can only win 1 district instead of 2.

https://twitter.com/NCJim2/status/1450894855387983873

So yeah the tweet is wrong in that they aren't really trying hard to go after him as they could just do what you suggested by keeping Moore whole. They are correct in the deviation abuse though as they could obviously reduce deviation for the district but they had a freebie here.

[lfromnj]

Statehouse minority leader is being moved from a Biden +22 to Biden +900 votes district.

https://twitter.com/ForwardCarolina/status/1450891182280691718

North Carolina R's literally pull a Mattis!

I think this tweet does not understand the redistricting process at play here in North Carolina. Given the requirements made around clustering counties, it is inevitable that Reives would no longer sit in a massively Biden-favoring district. Last cycle, Chatham county, a county Biden won by 11.5%, was paired with Durham county, home of the city of Durham. Durham gave Biden 80% of the vote to Trump's 18% and the three precincts taken from the county to bring Reives's district up to population all roughly split that way too. Now, after the 2020 Census, Durham was optimally matched with Person county to its north. Chatham is now in a five county cluster of which it is by far the most Democratic of those counties. Even if you were to try and create the most Biden district possible in the cluster while abiding by the assembly's own rules, Trump would still win it 49.6% to 49.1%, and that district wouldn't even include the Reives residence. In fact, the only reason that the current draft map gives Reives a Biden district at all is because the NC GOP, in violation of its own redistricting criteria, is splitting Moore county, something that shouldn't be done given Moore's population.

The NC GOP moderately used deviation to add an extra precinct to shift it from Biden +6 to Biden +1.  The rest of the districts in the cluster are relatively underpopulated while this one is nearly 5%(max legal) overpopulated. Really not the biggest gerrymander in the history of the world but it is funny to note.

Yeah. Rereading the thread on Twitter, I think my criticism is actually more on what you added in your post. The district no longer being Biden+22 or anywhere near that was inevitable. The extra work done by the NC GOP to press the population up to its limit as the other districts remain far smaller than needed is fairly blatant.

Well maybe blatant to the NC supreme court and us of course.. Definitely not blatant to the average person. Federal courts generally look down at population deviation abuse although it generally has to be statewide and it is probably weaker after Rucho.  One use of it is not enough to draw the Federal courts ire atleast. IIRC the Georgia state house 2000 maps were struck down because literally every single district was +5 or -5% .  

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DallasWoodhouse/status/1451239387577081859

Note this isn't about redistricting  but rather the court trying to declare the state constitution unconstitutional .

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/NCGOP/status/1451259866417410054

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/DestinHall/status/1451609456958222346
State house

Also didn't realize but a fair map can actually have a fairly swing seat in Gastonia.

[lfromnj]

I imported it into DRA.

Oddly fair 6-8 in 2020 president data, with 9 and 14 very close. Who drew this thing?

Ben Clarke.(D-Fayetville)

[lfromnj]

CMT-9 is 100% just bait for public comment .

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/will_doran/status/1453778674491215880

Seems they decided to use the other cluster in the NE.

Other than Wilmington it doesn't seem like anything is really gerrymandered.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/will_doran/status/1453778674491215880

Seems they decided to use the other cluster in the NE.

Other than Wilmington it doesn't seem like anything is really gerrymandered.

Looks like they gave back one of the black NE seats. 

Yeah thats what I said they changed in the NE. The old cluster was a ridiculous non contigious cluster.

[lfromnj]

It doesn't do anything partisan-wise but the split of Durham is kind of silly (it's not for VRA reasons).  I guess they're trying to keep incumbents happy, though why they would care what Natalie Murdock and Mike Woodard think is anyone's guess.

It helps to keep the Fayetville district logical.

There is a comment in the above tweet screaming its a gerrynander to get a GOP senate district out of Durham lol! The GOP did use some population deviation in the house to get a swing district out of Durham but half of the district is a Trump +20 rural county.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/will_doran/status/1453784660287369216

Nvm they changed Wilmington ?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/will_doran/status/1454160570043838473


Never mind seems they don't want to draw the fair map in the NE and are taking the gamble.

[lfromnj]

Another potential NC map. This one is labelled CST-13.



There are 10 R seats to 4 D seats.

I think this is a very skillful Pubmander, or at least one in the style I would have drawn. It minimizes county chops and erosity to the extent reasonably possible without materially degrading  efficacy, avoids VRA risk (the Butterfield district is not a Gingles CD, and in fact is a Dem pack CD, sort of, to leave adjacent CD’s Pub safer – sorry Wasserman), and packs Charlotte and the Research Triangle, while neutralizing the Dem nodes of Asheville, Winston-Salam, and Goldsboro.

Well it doesn't really neutralize Asheville but actually helps make that district probably in the competitive range. Also you mean Greensboro? Goldsboro is in Wayne County. The actual city leans D but the county was Trump +10.