North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Torie]

I was wondering if NC-02 could be drawn in a way that got if over 50% BCVAP, thus potentially triggering Gingles if deemed compact. The answer is yes, barely, with a lot of contortions. The odds that a federal court deems it compact enough to trigger Gingles is probably fairly low, but if triggered, the issue is then whether a 2% Biden margin CD is deemed a black performing CD. Perhaps, since the black incumbent would have run way ahead of that, but it is a close call. So there is some VRA risk with the Butterfield CD, but if called on it by a court, it can with another chop or two, be made more Dem, so it probably is not an imprudent Pub risk to take.

Butterfield actually ran behind Biden by 0.1%. He faced a C/B tier candidate just like  Vicente Gonzalez did instead of the regular no namer. A lot of incumbent overperformances are fairly paper thin.

That surprises me, but OK, then the compact issue becomes more salient. The voting must be very racially polarized.

[Oryxslayer]

I was wondering if NC-02 could be drawn in a way that got if over 50% BCVAP, thus potentially triggering Gingles if deemed compact. The answer is yes, barely, with a lot of contortions. The odds that a federal court deems it compact enough to trigger Gingles is probably fairly low, but if triggered, the issue is then whether a 2% Biden margin CD is deemed a black performing CD. Perhaps, since the black incumbent would have run way ahead of that, but it is a close call. So there is some VRA risk with the Butterfield CD, but if called on it by a court, it can with another chop or two, be made more Dem, so it probably is not an imprudent Pub risk to take.

Butterfield actually ran behind Biden by 0.1%. He faced a C/B tier candidate just like  Vicente Gonzalez did instead of the regular no namer. A lot of incumbent overperformances are fairly paper thin.

That surprises me, but OK, then the compact issue becomes more salient. The voting must be very racially polarized.

In most of the NE NC counties we are talking about, it is racially polarized to a degree comparable to other parts of the deep south. You have to go into the cities of Greensville, or the much larger ones of Raleigh and Durham for large crossover voting. This is the issue with cutting NC-01 like republicans are attempting: the district is still majority-minority, can be maintained majority minority, and the degree of racial polarization in the region means that a seat 49% White by CVAP is performing - and very strongly. All their proposals make the seat majority white despite the state getting more diverse, so regression then comes into play.

[lfromnj]

I was wondering if NC-02 could be drawn in a way that got if over 50% BCVAP, thus potentially triggering Gingles if deemed compact. The answer is yes, barely, with a lot of contortions. The odds that a federal court deems it compact enough to trigger Gingles is probably fairly low, but if triggered, the issue is then whether a 2% Biden margin CD is deemed a black performing CD. Perhaps, since the black incumbent would have run way ahead of that, but it is a close call. So there is some VRA risk with the Butterfield CD, but if called on it by a court, it can with another chop or two, be made more Dem, so it probably is not an imprudent Pub risk to take.

Butterfield actually ran behind Biden by 0.1%. He faced a C/B tier candidate just like  Vicente Gonzalez did instead of the regular no namer. A lot of incumbent overperformances are fairly paper thin.

That surprises me, but OK, then the compact issue becomes more salient. The voting must be very racially polarized.

It's a bit farther north than say SC/AL/GA/MS so not as racially polarized.  Biden runs like 10% ahead of black VAP %

[Torie]

I was wondering if NC-02 could be drawn in a way that got if over 50% BCVAP, thus potentially triggering Gingles if deemed compact. The answer is yes, barely, with a lot of contortions. The odds that a federal court deems it compact enough to trigger Gingles is probably fairly low, but if triggered, the issue is then whether a 2% Biden margin CD is deemed a black performing CD. Perhaps, since the black incumbent would have run way ahead of that, but it is a close call. So there is some VRA risk with the Butterfield CD, but if called on it by a court, it can with another chop or two, be made more Dem, so it probably is not an imprudent Pub risk to take.

Butterfield actually ran behind Biden by 0.1%. He faced a C/B tier candidate just like  Vicente Gonzalez did instead of the regular no namer. A lot of incumbent overperformances are fairly paper thin.

That surprises me, but OK, then the compact issue becomes more salient. The voting must be very racially polarized.

In most of the NE NC counties we are talking about, it is racially polarized to a degree comparable to other parts of the deep south. You have to go into the cities of Greensville, or the much larger ones of Raleigh and Durham for large crossover voting. This is the issue with cutting NC-01 like republicans are attempting: the district is still majority-minority, can be maintained majority minority, and the degree of racial polarization in the region means that a seat 49% White by CVAP is performing - and very strongly. All their proposals make the seat majority white despite the state getting more diverse, so regression then comes into play.

I don't think retrogression is a thing anymore. SCOTUS killed it off. So you are just left with the Gingles trigger, and if triggered (you can draw a 50%+ BCVAP CD that is deemed "compact"), whether a CD is minority performing if less than 50% BCVAP. The odds I think are pretty low that the erose monster that I drew that grabs black inner city hoods in various cities, will be deemed by the current SCOTUS to be "compact." This is particularly true given that the subject CD is not really gerrymandered and the county chops are minimized. If it were gerrymandered to get the black percentage down, a court might be more aggressive in deeming such erosity nevertheless compact.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/MurphinNC/status/1455660028103479300?s=20

Moving towards house.

[BoiseBoy]

Sigh. Hoping it gets challenged in court.

[Antonio the Sixth]

They're really that f**king shameless huh.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/MurphinNC/status/1455933928691351555

Democrats tried to get some amendments to get all the Charlotte and Wake seats Safe D(No reason for the GOP to do that when not doing so isn't even a gerrymander)

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

At least the Johnston based seat is compact and the Mountains are decent. They also did a east-west renumbering, which is nice.

But good god, Charlotte and central NC.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

What's the Trump-Biden number on the Fayetteville seat(NC-04)

[lfromnj]

What's the Trump-Biden number on the Fayetteville seat?

Like Trump +7.5. Cooper narrowly loses it.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Renee Ellmers Round 3?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What's the Trump margin in that NC-11?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/aggou/status/1455996047252205576
Chatham seat is no longer tossup as they have decided not to overpopulate it by the 4.9% .

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems like the GOPs goal was to try increase the chances of holding a majority rather than worrying about seat 30 or 31.

[lfromnj]

Seems like the GOPs goal was to try increase the chances of holding a majority rather than worrying about seat 30 or 31.

I mean seat 72(veto override) would be nice for the GOP for  2022 although they probably pick that up ..

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1456053111362097156

[Vern]

https://twitter.com/MurphinNC/status/1455660028103479300?s=20
Moving towards house.

This map is beautiful considering what Dems are doing in other states.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/MurphinNC/status/1455660028103479300?s=20
Moving towards house.

This map is beautiful considering what Dems are doing in other states.

You do realize it’s maps like these that’s why democrats are doing what we’re doing in Illinois, Cali, etc.?

Like you’ve got vaguely the right idea just wrong Way around

[😥]

https://twitter.com/MurphinNC/status/1455660028103479300?s=20
Moving towards house.

This map is beautiful considering what Dems are doing in other states.

Ever heard of Ohio GOP? Or Texas GOP? Republicans are the reason why we are still having this ugly gerrymandering all across the country

[Vern]

If you honestly think that is why the Democrats in then states do that. Then you are fooling yourself.

[Nyvin]

If you honestly think that is why the Democrats in then states do that. Then you are fooling yourself.

Uhh, it certainly is why.   Democrats are the ones promoting at least SOME form of fair redistricting, like in Virginia or Colorado, or even legislation passed in Congress at some level.   Republicans are the ones completely gun-ho about gerrymandering as much as possible to their benefit.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MurphinNC/status/1455660028103479300?s=20
Moving towards house.

This map is beautiful considering what Dems are doing in other states.

Other than Illinois name another state were Dems right now are doing what's already happened in North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

If you honestly think that is why the Democrats in then states do that. Then you are fooling yourself.

I’m not saying it’s the only reason. But it was definitely republicans that started the modern gerrymandering war with the old Texas, Louisiana, Florida maps of the 2000s & 2010s. Democrats also are playing in this, but we’re the ones trying to end it.

[Vern]

If you honestly think that is why the Democrats in then states do that. Then you are fooling yourself.

I’m not saying it’s the only reason. But it was definitely republicans that started the modern gerrymandering war with the old Texas, Louisiana, Florida maps of the 2000s & 2010s. Democrats also are playing in this, but we’re the ones trying to end it.

I think you are forgetting what Democrats did in NC for years. Republicans in NC at least are making maps that are too crazy