North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Vern]

Someone sent this map in a Discord I'm in, saying it's a leak of the draft NC map for 2022. I have no idea if it's legitimate or not, as they haven't provided a source.

Lol if that's their intended map, it's so sloppy in addition to being a gerrymander.

It doesn't seem that implausible though tbh, especially since Republicans in the NCGA appear to be misunderstanding the judicial decisions wrt: NC-01 and think that it can just be drawn any kind of way. NC-10 makes sense here too as a seat drawn explicitly for Tim Moore. And tbh the NC Republicans are kind of into being really sloppy at mapping.

The formatting also looks a lot like NCGA maps, not that that means anything.

I don't believe this is true. 

Also I tried to recreate this map, and it seems like they used very old population data.

[Vern]

Someone sent this map in a Discord I'm in, saying it's a leak of the draft NC map for 2022. I have no idea if it's legitimate or not, as they haven't provided a source.

Lol if that's their intended map, it's so sloppy in addition to being a gerrymander.

It doesn't seem that implausible though tbh, especially since Republicans in the NCGA appear to be misunderstanding the judicial decisions wrt: NC-01 and think that it can just be drawn any kind of way. NC-10 makes sense here too as a seat drawn explicitly for Tim Moore. And tbh the NC Republicans are kind of into being really sloppy at mapping.

The formatting also looks a lot like NCGA maps, not that that means anything.

I don't believe this is true. 

Also I tried to recreate this map, and it seems like they used very old population data.

For me it works out almost prfectly on 2019 data on DRA; it's just difficult to get the border between 4 and 14 and 9 and 12

One thing I noticed is this map puts to incumbents in District one. I doubt they would do that

[Vern]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/944c5502-3400-438b-99e0-b1cc765d6f59

My Fair map: it makes 5-5-4 with 2 leaning Dem and 2 leaning Rep. So pretty much a 7-7 map

[Vern]

I was able to make a 9-6 Dem Gerrymander. I was trying to do a 10-4 D map by making two Dem seats in the Winston-Salem and Greensboro area, but the margins were way too small to be sustainable for the Dems, so I had to combined that area.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b920bf1a-b50f-420f-8e33-cdf93731c92f

That map is hideous.  Unbelievable that it takes that much effort to do 9-6 D gerrymander in a relatively close state.

It’s because the Democrats are in a few area of the state while the rest lean Republican.

[Vern]

Tomorrow, well I guess today the 5th, I believe they will start the process of putting the maps together or at least getting a game plan going. Public Comment tour is over and they are meeting.

[Vern]

They are working on the NC House and Senate maps today.

[Vern]

are those whole county CDs within proper deviation?

No, not at all. I did the map in DRA and it is wildly off in a lot of districts. If I had to guess, this is a starting point and they will play with the numbers.

[Vern]

I wonder if we will get the final draft today or next week.

[Vern]

I believe we should see the final maps come out this week or next week. I read that they want to get the maps done by the end of Oct or beginning of Nov.

[Vern]

Word is, we may see some final maps today.

[Vern]

I looks like I will end up being in the 7th district, if they keep the numbering the same, and they do not add any more maps. 

[Vern]

https://twitter.com/MurphinNC/status/1455660028103479300?s=20
Moving towards house.

This map is beautiful considering what Dems are doing in other states.

[Vern]

If you honestly think that is why the Democrats in then states do that. Then you are fooling yourself.

[Vern]

If you honestly think that is why the Democrats in then states do that. Then you are fooling yourself.

I’m not saying it’s the only reason. But it was definitely republicans that started the modern gerrymandering war with the old Texas, Louisiana, Florida maps of the 2000s & 2010s. Democrats also are playing in this, but we’re the ones trying to end it.

I think you are forgetting what Democrats did in NC for years. Republicans in NC at least are making maps that are too crazy

[Vern]

If it’s wrong then why do Democrats do it now? And you can’t say well the Republicans are doing it so we have to do it to off set them… that crap and we know it. No matter who it is. The party in power will do what they can to help their party. There is no such thing as a fair map when you have people making them. They will alway bring in their bias view point.

And don’t say the Democrats made a fair map in NC, because even though their map was 7-7, it put Communities together that shouldn’t have been for the sake of making a more Democrat friendly map.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t like everything about the Republican map, there are things I would change. But it is what it is.

[Vern]

Who do you guys think will run in NC-7?

People I would like to run would be:

Rep. Jon Hardister
Rep. Pat Hurley
Sen. Amy Galey
Rep. Erin Paré

[Vern]

So what do you think the map would look like if the courts throw this one out?

[Vern]

So what is the TLDR for this point in time on the outcome?

The map used in 2020 was pretty damn fair, it's frustrating that it couldn't just have been kept in place, since that *should* satisfy the rationals on both sides.

This is a “Tell me you know nothing about the subject at hand, without telling me you know nothing about the subject at hand” post.

[Vern]

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::b27d87e4-1fa1-4a9d-aaeb-70b7795a5a14


This is a map I came up with trying to keep the metro areas together. It ended up being 7-6 map. 14 and 6 are your battleground districts. 

[Vern]

So today we find out what the courts have to say right?

[Vern]

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::c4f80bd3-cfea-4095-b83f-53618a371d03

This map has 3 minority districts. Which are 1, 8 and 11. 

[Vern]

So when would we expect to have a ruling?

[Vern]

So when are we expecting a ruling?

[Vern]

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::c4f80bd3-cfea-4095-b83f-53618a371d03

This map has 3 minority districts. Which are 1, 8 and 11. 

Here is a map I did not too long ago. I think this would be a fair map for NC

[Vern]

If I were the Democrats I would put up a 7-7 map and a 8-6 map