North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[lfromnj]

CJ Beasley is now likely to lose.  The late absentees and provisionals were surprisingly R, as they have been in other states.  So the court will be 4D/3R when it reviews the maps.  This leaves a couple of different scenarios:

1. Is one of the remaining D's known as a don't-rock-the-boat moderate?  Did any Dems dissent from or more narrowly concur in the decision throwing out the 2010's maps?  It only takes one crossover vote to defer to the legislature now. 

2.  If they are all committed liberals, they could go for broke in trying to set up the most Dem possible maps for 2022 knowing that they will almost surely lose their 1-seat majority in a Biden midterm anyway?

As of this morning Beasley is still ahead by 35 votes, but Robeson still has some provisionals.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1327628816345411585

Oh dear god, not Robeson again.

looks like Newby is up 230 now on the NCSBOE website.

Yeah there was an error in Washington county where they doubled the votes for both for absentee votes IIRC  which gave Beasley 250 more votes.

[lfromnj]

Basically the NC GOP Also flipped the lower court and Newby who is the slight favorite for Chief Justice would be in charge of the redistricting panel. The NC GOP can probably keep any map they pass tied up in appeals for a year I guess?11-3 will not happen though as long as Ds still have the majority.

[lfromnj]

What's the restrictions on mid decade redistricting if any?

Tbh not sure, if they draw a 10-4 in the beginning maybe they won't take the move of mid decade redistricting for 1 congressional seat that slightly weakens others. If there aren't any restrictions but the D court imposes some 6D map or something I would expect them to do it.

[lfromnj]

And I'll say again

Hr1 needs to be passed. I don't care if Biden has to sign an executive order, that way no one will gerrymander. This is insanity and has to stop.  The legislatures have shown they are not capable of drawing fair districts. I dont like when dems do it either, I know you have to fight fire with fire but it needs to stop nationwide.

would it survive SCOTUS?

I doubt it lol Thats why I'm hoping we win the senate so we could pass it legislatively

That doesn't mean it would hold up.  The constitution doesn't say much on how elections are held, there is a solid originalist argument against HR1

It literally says congress may make regulations and I'm pretty sure Ruching v Common cause directs congress to make those regulations.

[lfromnj]

My unpopular opinion is that the 5-2 court becoming a 4-3 one doesn't change much here, I'd expect all D seats to be preserved and probably one additional D seat (likely in the Sandhills) on a map handed down from the court.

This is a rough idea of what they could do: https://davesredistricting.org/join/ec2e10ca-645b-43d7-87d4-20241b263810, the county borders on this map obviously need to be cleaned up, but I don't have the luxury of splitting precincts for population equivalency (so I need to awkwardly pick up precincts to get population equivalency), while the drawers will (also this makes the new seat a tossup seat spanning multiple metros, which is an approach I don't think they'll take, but then again this is a rough idea)

It was 6-1, now its 4-3, what else changed is the lower courts are now like 10-5 GOP and the chief justice can choose the lower court panels. Its very easy to hold up the case for a few months for redistricting litigation.

[lfromnj]

Fair does not mean taking an arm to gaston to get a 2 D- split of Charlotte.

[lfromnj]

He is my map of trying to make a fair map. What do you guys think?

Seems pretty good all things considered. 4 and 6 could be reworked to look nicer, but I know how annoying that region is. The biggest thing I don’t like is the east/west split of Davidson. It’s more fitting for a north/south split. (Overall I personally would like less county splits).

However, I am deeply disappointed and concerned that the small democratic towns in the western part of the state COI has been grossly ignored. It’s truly the absolute top priority when districting there state

How is that the absolute top priority lol?  Anything excluding an Asheville split in Western NC is fine.

[lfromnj]

Didn't realize it but in a fair map(and not the incumbent protection/ local D gerrymander as currently) Buncombe county Ds are pretty badly distributed.  The County is exactly 3 state house seats and one would be a very D Asheville seat and then there would be 2 Tilt R east and west suburban seats that are both Trump +5 in 2016 although I imagine Biden won both.



Not super harmful for Democrats to win a majority in the state house but still hurts them and is probably a major reason  why the local legislative gerrymander's  might continue but the GOP can draw some 10-4 map congressionally.

[lfromnj]

https://www.carolinajournal.com/news-article/its-official-14th-congressional-seat-coming-to-n-c-whats-next/


https://twitter.com/lekhashupeck/status/1386845242217861123

It was deleted within the article but I saw it myself before it was changed.

[lfromnj]

So, since Republican control redistricting, what do you think the map will look like.

On Average 9-4-1? They do have a limit on top by the court. A 10-4 involves  Greensboro to Chapel hill, Raleigh sink and Durham with Black belt.

9-4-1 is either make a tossup seat out of Greensboro by tossing in Randolph and other red areas in central NC or push the Black belt seat rightwards.

[lfromnj]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/03/madison-cawthorn-republican-party-gerrymandering

LOL.

[lfromnj]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/03/madison-cawthorn-republican-party-gerrymandering

LOL.

I literally can't.

This is meant to be a prestigious newspaper but the guy can't even do the most basic research.

Its better, this guy wrote Ratf**cked.

[lfromnj]

https://www.johnlocke.org/update/redistricting-dilemmas-legislators-must-either-split-fayetteville-or-surround-it/

Lol although county split rules are usually fine, they kinda screwed the map in this area. An ideal map would probably have Exurban Fayetville placed with rural Sampson and Bladen counties but I am guessing that would mess with other county clusters.

[lfromnj]

That 1st district would be so much better if they just put in Pitt and removed Nash and some of the coastal counties. As it is right now though it's likely a Trump district though.

It is a Trump 2020 district by like 4 points although Clinton won it by 0.1%

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/lekhashupeck/status/1445856830933057536

Second draft before they closed for the day. Swing district in West removed that was lean to Likely R .

Lean D swing district created using Guilford and 4 whole counties.

[lfromnj]

Why are people assuming this map is going to get struck down at all lmao

This proposal is playing with fire regarding racial gerrymandering, and the North Carolina Supreme Court is 4D-3R

A federal suit’s likely result would be SCOTUS easing or eliminating the VRA district requirement, and the NCSC will be majority Republican by the time this reaches them. The map will hold up.

The state suit happens first, not the federal one. Democrats would be stupid to sue in federal court, and there's no removal if the suit is based on the state constitution.

Yes, but as I also pointed out, the full NCSC will probably not rule on this until after 2022 when it will likely have a GOP majority. So both avenues are fruitless.

Why would you think it would take that long? The NC SC will rule in late 2021, or at the latest early 2022. Even if you assume the Republicans win, the court election isn't until Nov. 2022 and the change in office not until Jan. 1, 2023. In any event, I don't think it's certain at all that all of the Republicans on the NC SC would vote to overturn their precedents on partisan gerrymandering.

Pretty sure sure the NC Democrats on the court just made up some stuff just like the PA court did about gerrymandering. Not sure why NC R's would be very likely to keep some random standard made up.

(Note same applies in the opposite direction to the Oregon court/Florida court/IL court for legislative maps where all these states actually do have standards but the courts have or will likely ignore them.

[lfromnj]

Also just noticed that they seem to want NC01 to reach the 70% counties on the coast but also exclude Dare county. Dare is the whitest county in that area but its only mildly Republican. It even voted for gay marriage in 2012.

[lfromnj]

I mean this has to be trolling right? Yesterday's map seemed plausible but this one is just lol.

[lfromnj]

Why does the city of Charlotte have such a small Black population for other Southern cities its size?

Is it really closer to an Upper South city such as Nashville?

A bit of it not being fully deep southern city, one could say, although it also is just the fact the city is basically the entire county

[lfromnj]

Weirdly NC democrats have been fairly quiet about what is happening. So far the only guy who I see has said anything is the Cumberland state senator.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/lekhashupeck/status/1448698473348542466

State senate draft

Democrats could try a VRA lawsuit between 1 and 2 for the county splits but I think those clusters were forced by the algorithm. Nothing too crazy besides Wilmington I guess. Fayetteville I guess is weird but honestly just blame the algorithm there.

Seems to be 20 Biden districts in 2020 although the Northern Wake + Granville would be relatively close.

Robeson Scotland and Hoke being together is great for the Lumbee though.


For Democrats to win a majority they need to win the Nash/Franklin/Vance district which is Trump +1, Wilmington district which is like Trump +3,Robeston,Scott, Hoke which is Trump +8 but Clinton +2 the Wilson/Wayne district at Trump +6, and Cabarrus county which is Trump +8 and zooming left

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/lekhashupeck/status/1448698473348542466

State senate draft

Democrats could try a VRA lawsuit between 1 and 2 for the county splits but I think those clusters were forced by the algorithm. Nothing too crazy besides Wilmington I guess. Fayetteville I guess is weird but honestly just blame the algorithm there.

Seems to be 20 Biden districts in 2020 although the Northern Wake + Granville would be relatively close.

Robeson Scotland and Hoke being together is great for the Lumbee though.


For Democrats to win a majority they need to win the Nash/Franklin/Vance district which is Trump +1, Wilmington district which is like Trump +3,Robeston,Scott, Hoke which is Trump +8 but Clinton +2 the Wilson/Wayne district at Trump +6, and Cabarrus county which is Trump +8 and zooming left

Looks like they turned the Wilmington seat into a Trump 2020 seat.  What are the Presidential numbers on the Moore-Fayetteville seat?  I assume that was another Biden seat that shifted to Trump?  What was the other district that changed from Biden to Trump (I think there were previously 23 Biden seats).

Like Trump +18, Definitely is ugly but it can be defended under the purpose of keeping Fayetteville whole and being forced by county clusters. Currently the 2nd Fayetville district is paired with Hoke county and not Moore.



Now that Wake and Mecklenburg are relatively uniform(The GOP can still win 2 seats out of Wake and 1 seat in South meck) the crazy gerrymandering just isn't there.  Strict County split rules arent always the best(See SD01/SD02) but they did limit gerrymandering .

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/lekhashupeck/status/1448698473348542466

State senate draft

Democrats could try a VRA lawsuit between 1 and 2 for the county splits but I think those clusters were forced by the algorithm. Nothing too crazy besides Wilmington I guess. Fayetteville I guess is weird but honestly just blame the algorithm there.

Seems to be 20 Biden districts in 2020 although the Northern Wake + Granville would be relatively close.

Robeson Scotland and Hoke being together is great for the Lumbee though.


For Democrats to win a majority they need to win the Nash/Franklin/Vance district which is Trump +1, Wilmington district which is like Trump +3,Robeston,Scott, Hoke which is Trump +8 but Clinton +2 the Wilson/Wayne district at Trump +6, and Cabarrus county which is Trump +8 and zooming left

Looks like they turned the Wilmington seat into a Trump 2020 seat.  What are the Presidential numbers on the Moore-Fayetteville seat?  I assume that was another Biden seat that shifted to Trump?  What was the other district that changed from Biden to Trump (I think there were previously 23 Biden seats).

Like Trump +18, Definitely is ugly but it can be defended under the purpose of keeping Fayetteville whole and being forced by county clusters. Currently the 2nd Fayetville district is paired with Hoke county and not Moore.



Now that Wake and Mecklenburg are relatively uniform(The GOP can still win 2 seats out of Wake and 1 seat in South meck) the crazy gerrymandering just isn't there.  Strict County split rules arent always the best(See SD01/SD02) but they did limit gerrymandering .

What are the 2020 numbers for the south Meck district and the two Wake districts you are referring to?

South meck is around Biden +6, South wake is like Biden +3, North Wake is like Biden +0  IIRC. All 3 should still be winnable downballot for now

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/lekhashupeck/status/1448698473348542466

State senate draft

Democrats could try a VRA lawsuit between 1 and 2 for the county splits but I think those clusters were forced by the algorithm. Nothing too crazy besides Wilmington I guess. Fayetteville I guess is weird but honestly just blame the algorithm there.

In addition to the VRA violation, the 2nd lacks road contiguity. Hyde and Pamlico Counties are not connected.

Iirc they have a ferry connection. Don't get me wrong it is an absurd district but I think the GOP just got lucky in this area regarding county clusters.

[lfromnj]

It also looks like they made it so only one black Democrat can win a seat in the rural east.

County cluster algorithm. I don't know how many options there were. Dems can still sue under VRA of course and ask Federal courts to provide a county split option.