North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Mr.Phips]

They should try for an incumbent protection 9-5 map.  Base it off the current one, except Butterfield gets a bit of Raleigh which makes him totally safe.  It would be a tilt R map, not anything egregious like before.

Yeah I think that is probably the safest bet and Dems likely wouldn’t sue.

[palandio]

They should try for an incumbent protection 9-5 map.  Base it off the current one, except Butterfield gets a bit of Raleigh which makes him totally safe.  It would be a tilt R map, not anything egregious like before.

Something like this?




1: Clinton +27.8
2: Clinton +16.0
3: Trump +16.1
4: Clinton +33.0
5: Trump +35.0
6: Clinton +24.9
7: Trump +19.5
8: Trump +24.2
9: Trump +14.4
10: Trump +37.6
11: Trump +15.9
12: Clinton +47.5
13: Trump +21.3
14: Trump +19.2

The 14th must go to the East because the West already has too many Republican incumbents. Hudson has to take some areas in Mecklenburg County, so that Bishop doesn't have to. To compensate this and help Hudson, Fayetteville is crammed into Budd's titanium district.

[Idaho Conservative]

They should try for an incumbent protection 9-5 map.  Base it off the current one, except Butterfield gets a bit of Raleigh which makes him totally safe.  It would be a tilt R map, not anything egregious like before.

Something like this?




1: Clinton +27.8
2: Clinton +16.0
3: Trump +16.1
4: Clinton +33.0
5: Trump +35.0
6: Clinton +24.9
7: Trump +19.5
8: Trump +24.2
9: Trump +14.4
10: Trump +37.6
11: Trump +15.9
12: Clinton +47.5
13: Trump +21.3
14: Trump +19.2

The 14th must go to the East because the West already has too many Republican incumbents. Hudson has to take some areas in Mecklenburg County, so that Bishop doesn't have to. To compensate this and help Hudson, Fayetteville is crammed into Budd's titanium district.

yeah

[Sol]

My unpopular opinion is that the 5-2 court becoming a 4-3 one doesn't change much here, I'd expect all D seats to be preserved and probably one additional D seat (likely in the Sandhills) on a map handed down from the court.

This is a rough idea of what they could do: https://davesredistricting.org/join/ec2e10ca-645b-43d7-87d4-20241b263810, the county borders on this map obviously need to be cleaned up, but I don't have the luxury of splitting precincts for population equivalency (so I need to awkwardly pick up precincts to get population equivalency), while the drawers will (also this makes the new seat a tossup seat spanning multiple metros, which is an approach I don't think they'll take, but then again this is a rough idea)

IMO Republicans would probably put all of Orange into the 4th and then give the counties north of Durham to the 14th, since the 4th is a vote sink taking in swingy and even Republican territory on your map. Plus since Chapel Hill fits pretty logically with Durham, people probably won't be that mad.

[Sol]

My unpopular opinion is that the 5-2 court becoming a 4-3 one doesn't change much here, I'd expect all D seats to be preserved and probably one additional D seat (likely in the Sandhills) on a map handed down from the court.

This is a rough idea of what they could do: https://davesredistricting.org/join/ec2e10ca-645b-43d7-87d4-20241b263810, the county borders on this map obviously need to be cleaned up, but I don't have the luxury of splitting precincts for population equivalency (so I need to awkwardly pick up precincts to get population equivalency), while the drawers will (also this makes the new seat a tossup seat spanning multiple metros, which is an approach I don't think they'll take, but then again this is a rough idea)

IMO Republicans would probably put all of Orange into the 4th and then give the counties north of Durham to the 14th, since the 4th is a vote sink taking in swingy and even Republican territory on your map. Plus since Chapel Hill fits pretty logically with Durham, people probably won't be that mad.

Apologies, misread this and thought it was a GOP map.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

So I've been messing trying to make a good dem gerrymander and I've made an 8/6 map that does so pretty well. And boy is it ugly. Containing 3/4 snake districts it's probably one of the worst intentional maps I've created. It also contains two minority majority (just barely) districts.



NC-01 - Clinton won, 31.1% (53.1% Black)
NC-02 - Clinton won, 17.2%
NC-03 - Clinton won, 17.8%
NC-04 - Clinton won, 17.0%
NC-05 - Clinton won, 15.9%
NC-06 - Clinton won, 11.9%
NC-07 - Trump won, 25.7%
NC-08 - Trump won, 23.5%
NC-09 - Trump won, 38.3%
NC-10 - Clinton won, 13.2%
NC-11 - Clinton won, 27.1% (50.8% "Minority Coalition"/ 34.1% Black
NC-12 - Trump won, 35.0%
NC-13 - Trump won, 46.9%
NC-14 - Trump won, 39.2%

All of these districts are pretty safe for their respectively parties, the only ones that show much chance of flipping are the 10th and *maybe* the 8th. But both would take strong wave years.

[palandio]

Taking into account population growth and D trends in the Raleigh, Charlotte and Durham metros, the following much cleaner map (still a massive gerrymander) would do a similar job:



1: Clinton +14.5 (45.8% black, should be a performing VRA district)
2: Clinton +24.9
3: Trump +30.2
4: Clinton +14.5
5: Trump +44.0
6: Clinton +25.4
7: Trump +27.0
8: Clinton +16.5
9: Clinton +10.9 (45.3% white, 34.2% black)
10: Trump +37.9
11: Trump +13.0
12: Clinton +18.8 (48.3% white, 33.5% black)
13: Trump +45.3
14: Clinton +22.3

[palandio]

And if you don't mind really ugly gerrymandering and if you want to spread the D butter even thinner:



1: Clinton +12.6
2: Clinton +14.4
3: Trump +35.3
4: Clinton +14.1
5: Trump +45.6
6: Clinton +13.8
7: Clinton +16.3
8: Clinton +16.5
9: Clinton +10.0
10: Trump +37.9
11: Trump +13.0
12: Clinton +19.0
13: Trump +46.2
14: Clinton +15.5

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

And if you don't mind really ugly gerrymandering and if you want to spread the D butter even thinner:



1: Clinton +12.6
2: Clinton +14.4
3: Trump +35.3
4: Clinton +14.1
5: Trump +45.6
6: Clinton +13.8
7: Clinton +16.3
8: Clinton +16.5
9: Clinton +10.0
10: Trump +37.9
11: Trump +13.0
12: Clinton +19.0
13: Trump +46.2
14: Clinton +15.5

It's beautiful, shame Boone and Asheville can't get a blue seat

[palandio]

They can:


The 8th, 10th and 12th are Clinton +9.3, 9.8 and 9.3, respectively. Biden results should be even better.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

They can:


The 8th, 10th and 12th are Clinton +9.3, 9.8 and 9.3, respectively. Biden results should be even better.

Oh this. I hate and love this.

[Stuart98]

Fair map:

Districts split 7-7 in 2016. 1st is majority black and 12th is plurality black.

[lfromnj]

Fair does not mean taking an arm to gaston to get a 2 D- split of Charlotte.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

This is my attempt to make a better looking dem fixed map that includes the crucially important and neglected "Democratic voting towns in the Western part of the state" COI that is totally legit and should be ignored no longer!

• NC-01 Clinton 13.4, The Asheville/Boone/Gastonia/Winston-Salem snake(s)
• NC-02 Clinton 15.3, Centered around Rocky Mount (47.7% Black)
• NC-03 Clinton 18.0, High Point, Greensboro, and Burlington
• NC-04 Clinton 17.7, Durham, Chapel Hill, and a bunch a deep red rural areas (This would make some fun elections
• NC-05 Clinton 20.1 Most of Raleigh
• NC-06 Clinton 15.9 Cary to Fayetteville
• NC-07 Clinton 30.8 North Mecklenburg
• NC-08 Clinton 10.7 Charlotte suburbs to Wilmington(The least democratic, and could possibly flip in an R Wave year)
• NC-09 Trump 26.4 The Outer banks mostly
• NC-10 Trump 26.8 Raleigh exurbs to the Wilmington Coast... I guess?
• NC-11 Trump 22.5 Fayetteville suburbs to the Charlotte exurbs
• NC-12 Trump 42.9 Kannapolis then parts of the Charlotte suburbs, sorta
• NC-13 Trump 34.0 The Mountains
• NC-14 Trump 38.9 The rural Northwest

[palandio]

Fair map:

Districts split 7-7 in 2016. 1st is majority black and 12th is plurality black.

The purpose of the arm to Gaston is obviously not to make it more D, but to make it plurality black. Northern Mecklenburg county is probably more D than the arm to Gaston. Still unnecessary, since the 12th already elects Black congresswoman without the arm to Gaston.

I can't tell whether the map is what I'd call fair, because I haven't seen election results for the potentially competitive seats. What I can tell though is that the map offends the following rules:
1. Compactness (particularly district 13, but also 2, 6/14)
2. Avoiding unnecessary splits. As a rule of thumb: If the 5th shares a county with the 10th, the 10th with the 12th, the 12th with the 9th, the 9th with the 13th and the 13th with the 5th, i.e. if you can go full circle then there is at least one county split too much.
3. Similarly: If two districts share two counties (or five, like your 8th and 13th), there is at least one split (or five) too much.

Now I'm not a strict adept of Muon's Orthodox School of Redistricting, therefore I think that these rules can be offended if there are good reasons, but here I just don't see these reasons.

[Sol]

Fair does not mean taking an arm to gaston to get a 2 D- split of Charlotte.

Or that weird af carveout of Winston-Salem.

[Sol]

This is my attempt to make a better looking dem fixed map that includes the crucially important and neglected "Democratic voting towns in the Western part of the state" COI that is totally legit and should be ignored no longer!

hahaha

I especially enjoy the fact that that district has a semi-decent chance of electing a pol from Winston-Salem.

[Sol]

The purpose of the arm to Gaston is obviously not to make it more D, but to make it plurality black. Northern Mecklenburg county is probably more D than the arm to Gaston. Still unnecessary, since the 12th already elects Black congresswoman without the arm to Gaston.

You can actually draw a plurality Black district just in Mecklenburg.

[palandio]

The purpose of the arm to Gaston is obviously not to make it more D, but to make it plurality black. Northern Mecklenburg county is probably more D than the arm to Gaston. Still unnecessary, since the 12th already elects Black congresswoman without the arm to Gaston.

You can actually draw a plurality Black district just in Mecklenburg.

Ok, then nevermind. It seems to me though that the arm to Gaston like several other offenses on the map is not made with partisan intent or if it is, it is ineffective because its purpose could have been reached easier and better with less offensive means.

[Stuart98]

Edited to resolve the identified issues:


This made the 8th a bit more democratic (from Clinton <1 to Clinton +3.5) while the 9th shifted ~2 points to the right (to Trump +14) and the 7th shifted from about Trump +8 to Trump +21.

EDIT: Tuned the 2nd and 7th a bit to improve the compactness of the former.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

This is my attempt to make a better looking dem fixed map that includes the crucially important and neglected "Democratic voting towns in the Western part of the state" COI that is totally legit and should be ignored no longer!

hahaha

I especially enjoy the fact that that district has a semi-decent chance of electing a pol from Winston-Salem.

I’d say the two biggest bases are Asheville and Winston-Salem. So I could see a primary battle between people from the two. (What an unholy match)

[Sol]

Edited to resolve the identified issues:


This made the 8th a bit more democratic (from Clinton <1 to Clinton +3.5) while the 9th shifted ~2 points to the right (to Trump +14) and the 7th shifted from about Trump +8 to Trump +21.

EDIT: Tuned the 2nd and 7th a bit to improve the compactness of the former.

Sorry to nitpick--but I have a few:

- It looks like you're splitting Greensboro--easily avoidable if you send suburban Guilford into the 14th instead of the city.
-New Hanover to Johnston on the current map is a gerrymander designed to prop up Rouzer--Johnston belongs in your green district
-I feel like I'm beating a dead horse, but Chapel Hill and Durham belong together on any fair map. If you do put the 1st district into Durham, which does have some benefits elsewhere, you should take advantage of those--you can make the 7th stay on the coast.
-Chatham goes with the Triangle, ideally.

[Stuart98]

Edited to resolve the identified issues:


This made the 8th a bit more democratic (from Clinton <1 to Clinton +3.5) while the 9th shifted ~2 points to the right (to Trump +14) and the 7th shifted from about Trump +8 to Trump +21.

EDIT: Tuned the 2nd and 7th a bit to improve the compactness of the former.

Sorry to nitpick--but I have a few:

- It looks like you're splitting Greensboro--easily avoidable if you send suburban Guilford into the 14th instead of the city.
-New Hanover to Johnston on the current map is a gerrymander designed to prop up Rouzer--Johnston belongs in your green district
-I feel like I'm beating a dead horse, but Chapel Hill and Durham belong together on any fair map. If you do put the 1st district into Durham, which does have some benefits elsewhere, you should take advantage of those--you can make the 7th stay on the coast.
-Chatham goes with the Triangle, ideally.

Better?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

This is my somewhat terrible attempt at a "fair map". I like most of it, but the center of the state could be better. This would breakdown to a 5 democrats (1,3,4,5,10), 1 swing ( 8 ), and 8 republicans (the rest). I like District 14 being the "Mountain" district and I like 2 being almost exclusively the Outer banks. The 3rd is a plurality black (by literally just 300 people). 6, 9, and 11 are really awkward though. There was an iteration of this map where 11 was a ring district around Winston-Salem & Greensboro, with the 9 being a northern counterpart to the 8th. (I have the map saved if anyone is interested in seeing that mess)

[Sol]

This is my somewhat terrible attempt at a "fair map". I like most of it, but the center of the state could be better. This would breakdown to a 5 democrats (1,3,4,5,10), 1 swing ( 8 ), and 8 republicans (the rest). I like District 14 being the "Mountain" district and I like 2 being almost exclusively the Outer banks. The 3rd is a plurality black (by literally just 300 people). 6, 9, and 11 are really awkward though. There was an iteration of this map where 11 was a ring district around Winston-Salem & Greensboro, with the 9 being a northern counterpart to the 8th. (I have the map saved if anyone is interested in seeing that mess)

That's not terrible! The 14th-12th boundary is a bit rough--a lot of the counties in the NE portion of the 14th are actually more Foothills than Mountains proper--you could trade McDowell, Burke, Caldwell, and Wilkes for Buncombe and Henderson and it'd be a lot more sensible. I don't know if the 2nd-7th boundary makes much sense--better to draw North-South rather than inland-coastal.