North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Sol]

Have y'all tried drawing with NC on the new population numbers? I've been tinkering around with some maps (nothing finished yet). So far it seems like the population distribution is a little better as far as drawing decent community of interest based districts ( ) but there seem to be fewer whole-county combinations which make concise districts ( ).

There also seem to be a few other "difficult points." The 1st district has been declining in population all decade even as NC has been gaining a seat, so it doesn't change much from 2010. Eastern North Carolina seems to have had laggy growth in general, but unlike last time it does seem to be possible to draw three ENC districts. Another thing worth noting is that Eastern Wake County is increasingly black; it means that a district based in Johnston or Franklin County might shouldn't cut in in that direction.

Yeah the map with the Charlotte split was with 2018 numbers as its now possible for a majority minority district there while keeping a Safe D white suburban district, anyway I wouldn't try for whole counties in a map rn, 2018 estimates are close to what actually happens but 2 years is still a lot of possible deviation.

That's fair. Still it's depressing to see that concise whole county NC-11 is basically impossible, at least under the current numbers, especially when there were multiple reasonable whole county combinations in 2010.

Actually you can start from the west and go to Asheville and then drag a county strip to wautaga for a deviation of only +333. Not perfectly compact but still follows the COI of the mountain ranges and allows for the most competitive seat in the region possible. So its basically a no brainer seat.

That excludes Henderson County no? Frankly I'd call a version of NC-11 which excludes Henderson County unreasonable, considering how interconnected Buncombe and Henderson are. Still, a good catch, though I might actually prefer a map with a county split to cleaving those two counties.

[Sol]

Have y'all tried drawing with NC on the new population numbers? I've been tinkering around with some maps (nothing finished yet). So far it seems like the population distribution is a little better as far as drawing decent community of interest based districts ( ) but there seem to be fewer whole-county combinations which make concise districts ( ).

There also seem to be a few other "difficult points." The 1st district has been declining in population all decade even as NC has been gaining a seat, so it doesn't change much from 2010. Eastern North Carolina seems to have had laggy growth in general, but unlike last time it does seem to be possible to draw three ENC districts. Another thing worth noting is that Eastern Wake County is increasingly black; it means that a district based in Johnston or Franklin County might shouldn't cut in in that direction.

Yeah the map with the Charlotte split was with 2018 numbers as its now possible for a majority minority district there while keeping a Safe D white suburban district, anyway I wouldn't try for whole counties in a map rn, 2018 estimates are close to what actually happens but 2 years is still a lot of possible deviation.

That's fair. Still it's depressing to see that concise whole county NC-11 is basically impossible, at least under the current numbers, especially when there were multiple reasonable whole county combinations in 2010.

Actually you can start from the west and go to Asheville and then drag a county strip to wautaga for a deviation of only +333. Not perfectly compact but still follows the COI of the mountain ranges and allows for the most competitive seat in the region possible. So its basically a no brainer seat.

That excludes Henderson County no? Frankly I'd call a version of NC-11 which excludes Henderson County unreasonable, considering how interconnected Buncombe and Henderson are. Still, a good catch, though I might actually prefer a map with a county split to cleaving those two counties.

No just look at Oryx slayers map, it will probably have to take a few precints from the next county over too but seriously this district makes no sense not to make in any court/fair map


Preserves COI's(mountain ranges)
has a mostly reasonable shape with a very slightly odd arm
and keeps a slightly competitive district(Trump got 54% here) and it was only MCrory +2, trends aren't great here for D's but its the best district possible.
Obama lost it by 3.5 in 08 and if you divide the district into 2 parts(Wautaga+Henderson+Buncombe) vs the rest  you get a Roy Cooper +10 and Obama +4, part and a Mccrory +20 which was Mccain +16 so trends aren't completely awful here but it isn't great as Cooper still overperformed in the western rurals.

Ah I see-how dumb of me; assumed McDowell was included.

Not a bad district at all! In an ideal world this district would be a bit more southwesterly (i.e. exchanging Watauga and Avery for McDowell and Polk, but that's obviously splitting hairs.

[Sol]

I'd argue that the parts of WNC which are in Asheville's sphere of influence are definitely a CoI, albeit a weak one for all but Henderson since most of them are more exurban (and not in the sense of massive developments of ticky tacky) than suburban. Henderson is different because it's more built up and linked to Asheville.

I doubt Heath Shuler would come back succesfully; he's cashed in as a lobbyist. Plus he's never represented Watauga, Avery, or Mitchell. These days he's a crappy fit for the Democratic primary electorate in that hypothetical NC-11, which would probably be dominated by lefties in Buncombe and Watauga.

(Watauga wildly punches above their weight in primaries; the Watauga Democrats picked the Democratic nominee in every NC-05 primary before Winston-Salem was added, and Bill Tooele won the Lt. Gov. primary this year there because he got the crucial local endorsement).

Wrt: WNC trends, there's a fair amount of counter-momentum to Asheville getting more D; Western NC is a popular place for retirees and Dems probably still haven't bottomed out in Madison, Yancey, Haywood, etc.

[Sol]

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1253737004229066760

Why is this so ugly? Splitting Orange and Durham, the odd shape of the 5th, etc.

IMO the most likely outcome is a fair map imposed by the court which is more on the Democratic side of the range of possibilities. 

[Sol]

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1253737004229066760

Why is this so ugly? Splitting Orange and Durham, the odd shape of the 5th, etc.

IMO the most likely outcome is a fair map imposed by the court which is more on the Democratic side of the range of possibilities.  

Are you referring to map 1, 2, or 3 here? 2 only micro-cuts Orange, and that's because of pop. But on the broader topic...incumbent protection deals are not the prettiest maps, they are guided by partisanship. Almost everything is copied from the current map, so blame the legislature for the mess. In concerning the makeup of 4 and 14, it came down to the easiest way to make all seats safe.  The way how the Dems in the legislature would see this is an expansion of the Triangles power since they would have Ross in Raleigh, Price, or likely his successor, in Chapel Hill, and someone new in Durham. That's just how parochial legislators think, which is why commissions are better. Unfortunately, NC lacks a commission so that style of map is not drawn.

I have no idea why you assume that 1. The NCGOP would consult with Democrats even if drawing a fairly modest map, and 2. that the Democrats would want a Fayetteville to Chapel Hill district. If your new 14th district is open, it's liable to elect a Fayetteville democrat. The status quo of a Durham-Chapel Hill district is pretty sensible and wouldn't be controversial with the local Democrats. Then you can draw a district based in Fayetteville and environs. The previous gerrymandered 4th went all the way to Fayetteville and was loathed, and not just because it was a hyper-partisan vote sink--Orange and Cumberland counties are extremely different.

Additionally, cutting Mecklenburg into 5 districts with 7 pieces is grotesque. No party wants to do something like that unless they're engaging massive scale gerrymandering, which isn't what they're supposed to be doing in this map and which isn't necessary. They'd split Catawba or Iredell or something first.

Sorry for the quote gore.

[Sol]

I understand why you'd want two districts dipping into South Charlotte, but splitting Northern Mecklenburg two ways is unecessary for a region which is much less populated, and which hasn't trended as far as certain areas in the south of the county.

[Sol]

Here's a map which I've been spitballing, roughly a fair map drawn by a Dem court. There's a few things which I'd alter if I could--the real version of this map would have the 4th splitting a precinct in Lee. I'd also have to split a precinct in Northern Mecklenburg as well as they cut across city lines and are huge.

A few things:
-I tried to split counties where it'd make sense--so Franklin and Iredell are cut to separate their rural from suburban areas (roughly). The cuts in Northern Mecklenburg, Wake, and Pitt are designed to follow city lines.
-I wish the 1st was further east, but it was that or send the 7th into suburban Raleigh or Robeson County, which I figured were worse.
-Likewise, I wish the 4th went east rather than south. Alamance, Lee, and Moore aren't great fits for a Triangle district.
-I also don't like Goldsboro going into the Wilmington district, but I don't feel too guilty. Wilmington is too small on its own.

And since I think any fair district should have obvious Canadian-style names, here are some:
1. Rocky Mount-Albemarle
2. Raleigh
3. Jacksonville-Outer Banks
4. Durham-Chapel Hill
5. Hickory-Yadkin
6. Greensboro-Winston Salem
7. Cape Fear
8. Fayetteville-Sandhills
9. Charlotte South and West (or Charlotte-Concord-Monroe?)
10. Gastonia-Shelby
11. Blue Ridge (or Western North Carolina?)
12. Charlotte
13. Raleigh East
14. Piedmont

[Sol]

If y'all are concerned about adding another Dem district, how about this?

[Sol]

Played a bit with Mecklenburg, but it's hard to make the 9th district competitive without slicing up the Black community or putting one of Union or Cabarrus in the 12th, which I would assume are no-gos.

[Sol]

I just think you're overrating the thoughtfulness of the GOP/their willingness to draw ugly districts to satisfy a purpose other than partisan gain. I suspect the GOP would look at a light blue (atlas red) Sandhills district and see it as more appealing than an extra Democratic vote sink which takes in several Republican counties and is ugly.

The scenario which you've outlined is one where Republicans are trying to draw a non-partisanish district which appeals to some Democrats. The map which the Republicans drew in 2019, which was about the same scenario, was significantly less ugly!


Wrt: Mecklenburg, I think I expressed above the specificity of my criticism. I don't mind that you dipped into South Charlotte, or the removal of Northern Mecklenburg--both make sense from pretty much any perspective. But slicing Northern Mecklenburg twice (!) is unecessary. If you look at the 2016 results, Northern Meck swung a good bit less and remains Republican. It will probably get more D so I don't think putting it in the 5th is crazy, but splitting a still Likely R area filled with a lot of Rich GOP power players seems a little odd.

In any case, very little here is certain. All of us, myself included, like to assume that we have some insight into what these legislators are going to do, but probably all of us will assume wrong at some point. A little humility is necessary, especially when one is arguing for outcomes which are certain to be controversial.

[Sol]

This is what I came up with: https://davesredistricting.org/join/c97e624d-8fd5-4448-8fe4-ea91e60f8eb4

I'm not sure who would draw this, as I doubt any political actor would like it. Possibly a citizens' commission?

Most of the elements are pretty familiar from other maps. The distinctive bits are having separate seats for Winston-Salem (safely Republican) and Greensboro (swing seat) and trying to keep the 5th away from both Charlotte and the Piedmont Triad, so that it's primarily a Catawba Valley seat instead.

It's a 4D-8R-2 swing map, but both of the swing districts voted for Clinton and at least one is trending blue, so it would have no appeal to the Republicans.

That's a great map! I'd maybe trade some territory in the Nothern part of the 7th in exchange for unifying Pender (which is pretty Wilmington-oriented) but this is a very nice map! I especially enjoy the thoughtfulness of keeping RTP together.

[Sol]

You guys care to explain why you are sending NC01 into Durham? That was ruled as a gerrymander in December, especially since AAs can get their candidate of preference fine using only the belt counties. If you really need more AAs for partisan safety, east non-Raleigh wake is readily available and closer to the belt.

I was using His map. This is my fair map: https://davesredistricting.org/join/b8c66314-894f-4281-acd7-cc66dc6e3bb6

Why the ugly 14th?

[Sol]

Here's a subtle GOP gerry, with the idea being avoiding court intervention with a relatively compact map.



NC-01, NC-02, NC-04, and NC-12 are safe D, while NC-14 is a D-leaning seat. NC-06 is very likely R, while NC-13 is safe R now but might move more towards the Democrats over the decade.

The one downside of this map is that it screws over Budd, who's double-bunked with McHenry. He might could primary Foxx or run in the 6th though.

[Sol]

Here's a subtle GOP gerry, with the idea being avoiding court intervention with a relatively compact map.



NC-01, NC-02, NC-04, and NC-12 are safe D, while NC-14 is a D-leaning seat. NC-06 is very likely R, while NC-13 is safe R now but might move more towards the Democrats over the decade.

The one downside of this map is that it screws over Budd, who's double-bunked with McHenry. He might could primary Foxx or run in the 6th though.

Splitting Guilford County three ways isn't subtle imo.

But thank you for getting rid of the NC-08 and 09 bacon strips. The light blue Union to Gaston district with a strip in South Charlotte is pretty ugly, but at least it's all in areas of the same metro area, unlike the aforementioned current strips. 

You could probably go into Stanly/Montgomery or Rockingham.

[Sol]

If there's a concern about Butterfield you could also draw something like this, pronging into Raleigh instead of Durham.



It has the advantage of relieving the pressure on ENC, thereby allowing for more logical districts--though obviously it's still not optimal. Eastern Wake County is also getting a good bit Blacker, which might help too if there are concerns about a decline in minority communities in the Northeast.

[Sol]

If there's a concern about Butterfield you could also draw something like this, pronging into Raleigh instead of Durham.



In fairness, it's pretty easy to draw logical majority Black districts without splitting Jackson or
It has the advantage of relieving the pressure on ENC, thereby allowing for more logical districts--though obviously it's still not optimal. Eastern Wake County is also getting a good bit Blacker, which might help too if there are concerns about a decline in minority communities in the Northeast.

Well I still believe that a rural coi is key im merely commentating on what could happen

There’s no problem in the rest of the South with creating VRA seats which contain Black Belt rurals and inner cities.

Of course, none of those are optimal wrt: Communities of Interest.

[Sol]

As the court seems its heading towards 4-3 here is a clean map the NC GOP could draw. Guilford can mostly be drowned out by Randolph but it still is Clinton +3 FWIW. I didn't take much of Durham btw, its only like 10k.

Beasley actually still has a decent shot; probably the narrow favorite at this point though there will be a recount.

[Sol]

As the court seems its heading towards 4-3 here is a clean map the NC GOP could draw. Guilford can mostly be drowned out by Randolph but it still is Clinton +3 FWIW. I didn't take much of Durham btw, its only like 10k.

Do you have a link?

[Sol]

Technically it should be neither, it would be a swing district but all of us know thats unlikely.

A fair map pretty clearly produces 6 Democratic districts and then a tossup, but yeah, it's unlikely. Anyway, the black belt seat, Charlotte seat, Triad seat, and 3 Triangle seats should go to Dems (plus a Sandhills toss-up). Dropping a Triangle seat for a Chapel Hill-Fayetteville seat (yielding 6D-8R) or dropping a Triangle seat for a Chatham-Alamance-Orange-Person-Randolph-Guildford-Rockingham tossup seat and a Sandhill tossup seat (yielding 5D-7R-2S) would also be acceptable.

Going for 9+ safe R seats, however, simply isn't going to fly.

Not really sure how you get 3 Democratic Triangle seats if you're going for a fair map? It'd be more like 2-1R or 2-0-1 at best.

[Sol]

Technically it should be neither, it would be a swing district but all of us know thats unlikely.

A fair map pretty clearly produces 6 Democratic districts and then a tossup, but yeah, it's unlikely. Anyway, the black belt seat, Charlotte seat, Triad seat, and 3 Triangle seats should go to Dems (plus a Sandhills toss-up). Dropping a Triangle seat for a Chapel Hill-Fayetteville seat (yielding 6D-8R) or dropping a Triangle seat for a Chatham-Alamance-Orange-Person-Randolph-Guildford-Rockingham tossup seat and a Sandhill tossup seat (yielding 5D-7R-2S) would also be acceptable.

Going for 9+ safe R seats, however, simply isn't going to fly.

Not really sure how you get 3 Democratic Triangle seats if you're going for a fair map? It'd be more like 2-1R or 2-0-1 at best.

District 1: Burlington, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill, Cary, Apex, Pittsboro
District 2: Durham, RTP, Wake Forest, Henderson
District 3: Raleigh, East Wake, Johnston County

Durham and Chapel Hill go together--they're a pretty logical community.

[Sol]

Technically it should be neither, it would be a swing district but all of us know thats unlikely.

A fair map pretty clearly produces 6 Democratic districts and then a tossup, but yeah, it's unlikely. Anyway, the black belt seat, Charlotte seat, Triad seat, and 3 Triangle seats should go to Dems (plus a Sandhills toss-up). Dropping a Triangle seat for a Chapel Hill-Fayetteville seat (yielding 6D-8R) or dropping a Triangle seat for a Chatham-Alamance-Orange-Person-Randolph-Guildford-Rockingham tossup seat and a Sandhill tossup seat (yielding 5D-7R-2S) would also be acceptable.

Going for 9+ safe R seats, however, simply isn't going to fly.

Not really sure how you get 3 Democratic Triangle seats if you're going for a fair map? It'd be more like 2-1R or 2-0-1 at best.

District 1: Burlington, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill, Cary, Apex, Pittsboro
District 2: Durham, RTP, Wake Forest, Henderson
District 3: Raleigh, East Wake, Johnston County

Durham and Chapel Hill go together--they're a pretty logical community.

Just realized you have Cary and Apex in the Chapel Hill district--you do realize that they're right on top of RTP right?

[Sol]

Technically it should be neither, it would be a swing district but all of us know thats unlikely.

A fair map pretty clearly produces 6 Democratic districts and then a tossup, but yeah, it's unlikely. Anyway, the black belt seat, Charlotte seat, Triad seat, and 3 Triangle seats should go to Dems (plus a Sandhills toss-up). Dropping a Triangle seat for a Chapel Hill-Fayetteville seat (yielding 6D-8R) or dropping a Triangle seat for a Chatham-Alamance-Orange-Person-Randolph-Guildford-Rockingham tossup seat and a Sandhill tossup seat (yielding 5D-7R-2S) would also be acceptable.

Going for 9+ safe R seats, however, simply isn't going to fly.

Not really sure how you get 3 Democratic Triangle seats if you're going for a fair map? It'd be more like 2-1R or 2-0-1 at best.

District 1: Burlington, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill, Cary, Apex, Pittsboro
District 2: Durham, RTP, Wake Forest, Henderson
District 3: Raleigh, East Wake, Johnston County

Yea, thats D gerrymander straight out of 2002.

I am not going to get trapped into this R versus D gerrymandering dance of death.

How?

The Raleigh-Durham MSA has 2,105,771 people. That's 2.9 congressional districts. Adding in Caswell and Person Counties brings it up to 3.0. Starting out, you obviously have to pair Wake and Johnston Counties.

This is where the first problem comes in. Wake+Johnston is 1.7 congressional districts. You have to drop 0.7 of a cd and give it to the rest of the metro area in the north and west. Conveniently, the cities of Cary, Apex, Holly Springs, and Wake Forest add up to 0.7 congressional districts. Since they are closer to Durham/Chapel Hill than Johnston County, they should obviously be paired with the former.

The second challenge is dividing Caswell, Person, Granville, Vance, Warren, Franklin, Durham, Orange, Alamance, Chatham, North Wake, and West Wake into two congressional districts. Obviously, Caswell, Person, Orange, Alamance, and Chatham should be lumped together based on geography. However, that's only 0.6 of a congressional district. You can choose to get the remaining 0.4 of a congressional district by splitting the city of Durham (not ideal) or take it from Cary/Apex/Holly Springs (much better.)

This leaves behind a district of Durham, Granville, Vance, Warren, Franklin, and Wake Forest.

What else would you do?

Well unfortunately I don't think that the MSAs are fundamentally great guidelines in this circumstance.

First of all, Durham and Raleigh are both relatively small cities. Johnston, for example, is very much an exurban rather than inner urban county--the kind of place where a lot of it is fairly rural still (NCYankee please correct if wrong). Franklin is similar.

Granville and Person are even less metropolitan; Southern Granville isn't too far from Durham but the northern portion is pretty dang rural. Person is pretty much just in the metro because it's small and has a weak economy --> more commuters. Even Chatham has areas (Western half) which aren't really oriented towards the Triangle.

The Black Belt counties you put into the Durham district are not good fits. Granted, Henderson is part of the CSA, but it's a lot more like Roanoke Rapids or Rocky Mount in most matters of culture or economy. No clue why you put Warren in there. Plus the 1st district needs those Black voters to continue to perform under the VRA.

I actually don't think there's anything objectionable about putting Johnston into a district with Wake if you do it smartly--i.e. not sinking it in with Raleigh but putting in Wake Forest, Garner, Fuquay-Varina, along with other exurbanish areas like Franklin.

[Sol]

Technically it should be neither, it would be a swing district but all of us know thats unlikely.

A fair map pretty clearly produces 6 Democratic districts and then a tossup, but yeah, it's unlikely. Anyway, the black belt seat, Charlotte seat, Triad seat, and 3 Triangle seats should go to Dems (plus a Sandhills toss-up). Dropping a Triangle seat for a Chapel Hill-Fayetteville seat (yielding 6D-8R) or dropping a Triangle seat for a Chatham-Alamance-Orange-Person-Randolph-Guildford-Rockingham tossup seat and a Sandhill tossup seat (yielding 5D-7R-2S) would also be acceptable.

Going for 9+ safe R seats, however, simply isn't going to fly.

Not really sure how you get 3 Democratic Triangle seats if you're going for a fair map? It'd be more like 2-1R or 2-0-1 at best.

District 1: Burlington, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill, Cary, Apex, Pittsboro
District 2: Durham, RTP, Wake Forest, Henderson
District 3: Raleigh, East Wake, Johnston County

Durham and Chapel Hill go together--they're a pretty logical community.

Yes but then you have to put Cary and Apex and Wake Forest somewhere else. And I don't think connecting them around to Johnston which is on the far side of Raleigh is fair at all.

There's a decent argument for putting Cary and Apex into the Durham/Chapel Hill district, actually, on account of RTP.

[Sol]

With regards to the Durham-Chapel Hill thing, just take a look at the area on Google Earth. The area along  15-501 is pretty heavily littered with strip malls and suburban developments, without labels you'd be hard pressed to find the county or municipal line. Both of them are university towns with a high degree of contact between the local colleges. There are lots of commuters, in both directions--I know because I used to be one. They're kind of a no-brainer link.

[Sol]

Technically it should be neither, it would be a swing district but all of us know thats unlikely.

A fair map pretty clearly produces 6 Democratic districts and then a tossup, but yeah, it's unlikely. Anyway, the black belt seat, Charlotte seat, Triad seat, and 3 Triangle seats should go to Dems (plus a Sandhills toss-up). Dropping a Triangle seat for a Chapel Hill-Fayetteville seat (yielding 6D-8R) or dropping a Triangle seat for a Chatham-Alamance-Orange-Person-Randolph-Guildford-Rockingham tossup seat and a Sandhill tossup seat (yielding 5D-7R-2S) would also be acceptable.

Going for 9+ safe R seats, however, simply isn't going to fly.

Not really sure how you get 3 Democratic Triangle seats if you're going for a fair map? It'd be more like 2-1R or 2-0-1 at best.

District 1: Burlington, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill, Cary, Apex, Pittsboro
District 2: Durham, RTP, Wake Forest, Henderson
District 3: Raleigh, East Wake, Johnston County

Durham and Chapel Hill go together--they're a pretty logical community.

Yes but then you have to put Cary and Apex and Wake Forest somewhere else. And I don't think connecting them around to Johnston which is on the far side of Raleigh is fair at all.

There's a decent argument for putting Cary and Apex into the Durham/Chapel Hill district, actually, on account of RTP.

Right. But if you do that, it messes up the rest of the map. Durham-Chapel Hill-Apex-Cary-RTP is a district and (most) of the rest of Wake is a district. However, once you pencil in the Sandhills, Triad, and Black Belt districts, you have a bunch of awkward, stranded territory you have to work around--Johnston County and Alamance County being the most obvious examples.

North Carolina is a hard state to draw--it's population is both dense and even and as a consequence you kind of have to screw over some areas. IMO the best approach is to draw most districts as being just slightly off from optimal in order to most closely draw to communities.