North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Vern]

the bottom map I posted looks like the map the GOP  are going to go with.

[Vern]

Today they will make changes to the map. Let’s see what happens. But we do know we will get two new Dems seats.

[Vern]

Honestly, this map is not terrible.  There are thinks I don’t like. But overall I will get it a C.

[Vern]

So, if the Senate passes the current map. How long until we know if the courts approve it or not?

[Vern]

When can we expect to hear something from the court?

[Vern]

So if the courts don’t say anything by dec 2, the map they put out will be the final map?

[Vern]

Well, hopefully the courts can make a good map

[Vern]

I just wish they will hurry this up and give us the final map.

[Vern]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b8c66314-894f-4281-acd7-cc66dc6e3bb6

This is my fair map for NC. It's a 6R-6D and 2 Even

[Vern]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ed5b1056-1df4-4243-85e9-fbbc927477a3
this is a fair map based off 2010 data (outdated, I know)
Effort was taken to minimize county splits.
Chapel Hill and Durham were separated for compactness and to preserve the whole-county NC-13 in central NC.
A new 14th district is made that covers most of Wake County.
The 9th becomes mostly centered Charlotte McMansion suburbs and exurbs, and its eastern territory is lost to the 8th, which is now D-leaning and maj-min, with a sizable Lumbee population.
Compactness is fairly decent on this map, as is keeping CoI such as counties together. But it is not really as useful for 2020 as it otherwise would have been otherwise due to it using 2010 numbers.

That is a good map. I would love see it using the updated 2018 data.

[Vern]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ed5b1056-1df4-4243-85e9-fbbc927477a3
this is a fair map based off 2010 data (outdated, I know)
Effort was taken to minimize county splits.
Chapel Hill and Durham were separated for compactness and to preserve the whole-county NC-13 in central NC.
A new 14th district is made that covers most of Wake County.
The 9th becomes mostly centered Charlotte McMansion suburbs and exurbs, and its eastern territory is lost to the 8th, which is now D-leaning and maj-min, with a sizable Lumbee population.
Compactness is fairly decent on this map, as is keeping CoI such as counties together. But it is not really as useful for 2020 as it otherwise would have been otherwise due to it using 2010 numbers.

That is a good map. I would love see it using the updated 2018 data.

I've enabled all the possible data sets for viewing on the map. If you reload I think they would show up now?
And should I try to make an updated 2018 pop version of it?

Yes, that worked! I can work on an updated one.

[Vern]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a2b4d6c0-db04-4591-a73c-bed067f75a15
This is mine

[Vern]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ed5b1056-1df4-4243-85e9-fbbc927477a3
this is a fair map based off 2010 data (outdated, I know)
Effort was taken to minimize county splits.
Chapel Hill and Durham were separated for compactness and to preserve the whole-county NC-13 in central NC.
A new 14th district is made that covers most of Wake County.
The 9th becomes mostly centered Charlotte McMansion suburbs and exurbs, and its eastern territory is lost to the 8th, which is now D-leaning and maj-min, with a sizable Lumbee population.
Compactness is fairly decent on this map, as is keeping CoI such as counties together. But it is not really as useful for 2020 as it otherwise would have been otherwise due to it using 2010 numbers.

That is a good map. I would love see it using the updated 2018 data.

I've enabled all the possible data sets for viewing on the map. If you reload I think they would show up now?
And should I try to make an updated 2018 pop version of it?

Yes, that worked! I can work on an updated one.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ec158509-ff02-438d-94df-c067b8de5a98
I made an updated one but I also enjoy seeing what your version of an updated one looks like. Compare and contrast and such...

[Vern]

You guys care to explain why you are sending NC01 into Durham? That was ruled as a gerrymander in December, especially since AAs can get their candidate of preference fine using only the belt counties. If you really need more AAs for partisan safety, east non-Raleigh wake is readily available and closer to the belt.

I was using His map. This is my fair map: https://davesredistricting.org/join/b8c66314-894f-4281-acd7-cc66dc6e3bb6

[Vern]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f73cd568-9517-4d09-9023-06ddd4ed2ec9

This is my map.

[Vern]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f73cd568-9517-4d09-9023-06ddd4ed2ec9

This is my map.

What you guys think of this map?

[Vern]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f73cd568-9517-4d09-9023-06ddd4ed2ec9

This is my map.

What you guys think of this map?

what's the partisan data on that Fayetteville district?

50-48 Democrat. But it will be more democratic now since New Hanover swing toward the Democrats in 2020.

[Vern]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f73cd568-9517-4d09-9023-06ddd4ed2ec9

Quick question: how do you export a DRA file to make a nice shaded map like the one I quoted?

There is now a button in DRA program that you can shade it like that.

[Vern]

He is my map of trying to make a fair map. What do you guys think?

[Vern]

He is my map of trying to make a fair map. What do you guys think?

Generally good. It looks relatively similar to mine, which might be a reason why I like it. Also shows that there actually exists at least one satisfying 14-seat map for North Carolina where every single district makes more or less sense.

That being said 2020 population numbers will pose a few new difficulties:
- The NE corner of the state (1st and 3rd district) will have suffered further population losses that need to be compensated by taking in more territory. A part of that can come from the growing 7th, but that still leaves ca. 40k population missing. And the Sandhill district is over 20k short as well.
- The Research triangle districts (your 2nd, 4th, 14th) will have a surplus of over 60k. And if the 1st went even further into metro Raleigh, you would completely change its character, which you probably don't want to. (Your 1st cutting into Johnston county is in my opinion the most that is still tolerable.) On the other hand the exact position of the Triad seat (your 6th) is relatively delicate. I you shift it eastwards to take in population from the 4th, you will at some point have to cut deeply into Winston-Salem. (That's also one of the points where I was uncomfortable when drawing my own map.)

Finally as leecannon_ already said, the east-west split of Davidson is ugly.

I can't wait until we get the 2020 numbers so we can make better maps. I do need to work on the Davidson split.

[Vern]

This is an 8-6 Democratic map that I feel like isn't crazy.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::998ace71-3bb5-487d-8544-e5378ca716f6

[Vern]

Look one of my Maps made the NC page!! Its the new nc one under most proportional.

[Vern]

So, since Republican control redistricting, what do you think the map will look like.

[Vern]

This is a fair map that I would be fine with. *Note, the numbers below are 2020 numbers*




https://davesredistricting.org/join/53ea3d0c-b25d-45bd-aad3-f1fc432eda4e

[Vern]

Someone sent this map in a Discord I'm in, saying it's a leak of the draft NC map for 2022. I have no idea if it's legitimate or not, as they haven't provided a source.

Lol if that's their intended map, it's so sloppy in addition to being a gerrymander.

It doesn't seem that implausible though tbh, especially since Republicans in the NCGA appear to be misunderstanding the judicial decisions wrt: NC-01 and think that it can just be drawn any kind of way. NC-10 makes sense here too as a seat drawn explicitly for Tim Moore. And tbh the NC Republicans are kind of into being really sloppy at mapping.

The formatting also looks a lot like NCGA maps, not that that means anything.

I don't believe this is true.