North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[lfromnj]

Have y'all tried drawing with NC on the new population numbers? I've been tinkering around with some maps (nothing finished yet). So far it seems like the population distribution is a little better as far as drawing decent community of interest based districts ( ) but there seem to be fewer whole-county combinations which make concise districts ( ).

There also seem to be a few other "difficult points." The 1st district has been declining in population all decade even as NC has been gaining a seat, so it doesn't change much from 2010. Eastern North Carolina seems to have had laggy growth in general, but unlike last time it does seem to be possible to draw three ENC districts. Another thing worth noting is that Eastern Wake County is increasingly black; it means that a district based in Johnston or Franklin County might shouldn't cut in in that direction.

Yeah the map with the Charlotte split was with 2018 numbers as its now possible for a majority minority district there while keeping a Safe D white suburban district, anyway I wouldn't try for whole counties in a map rn, 2018 estimates are close to what actually happens but 2 years is still a lot of possible deviation.

That's fair. Still it's depressing to see that concise whole county NC-11 is basically impossible, at least under the current numbers, especially when there were multiple reasonable whole county combinations in 2010.

Actually you can start from the west and go to Asheville and then drag a county strip to wautaga for a deviation of only +333. Not perfectly compact but still follows the COI of the mountain ranges and allows for the most competitive seat in the region possible. So its basically a no brainer seat.

That excludes Henderson County no? Frankly I'd call a version of NC-11 which excludes Henderson County unreasonable, considering how interconnected Buncombe and Henderson are. Still, a good catch, though I might actually prefer a map with a county split to cleaving those two counties.

No just look at Oryx slayers map, it will probably have to take a few precints from the next county over too but seriously this district makes no sense not to make in any court/fair map


Preserves COI's(mountain ranges)
has a mostly reasonable shape with a very slightly odd arm
and keeps a slightly competitive district(Trump got 54% here) and it was only MCrory +2, trends aren't great here for D's but its the best district possible.
Obama lost it by 3.5 in 08 and if you divide the district into 2 parts(Wautaga+Henderson+Buncombe) vs the rest  you get a Roy Cooper +10 and Obama +4, part and a Mccrory +20 which was Mccain +16 so trends aren't completely awful here but it isn't great as Cooper still overperformed in the western rurals.

Ah I see-how dumb of me; assumed McDowell was included.

Not a bad district at all! In an ideal world this district would be a bit more southwesterly (i.e. exchanging Watauga and Avery for McDowell and Polk, but that's obviously splitting hairs.

Nah I think districts should at the very least prioritize a degree of competitiveness if its a fair map if possible while not tearing COI's up(Arizona went too far it used native Americans in the north along with liberals in Flag staff and then went to the South Phoenix burbs), but this is merely a choice of a perfectly clean district but mostly noncompetitive or a slightly competitive district but a touch messier but also keeps reasonable COI's together.

[lfromnj]

Any D court is gonna squish a 4th tossup/ D district in the Piedmont to the triangle, you just have to start by using all of Forsyth then add a few extra moderately R leaning Counties in the north for the tossup. This keeps it relatively clean, one could make it a bit messier but more COI based by pushing it into one of Wake's exurbs counties.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/533404207668133888/707062709010694144/unknown.png
Blue is the main COI for the 4 districts and green is the remaining 250k or so pop needed to boost it to exactly 4 districts by 2018 pop.

[lfromnj]

Any D court is gonna squish a 4th tossup/ D district in the Piedmont to the triangle, you just have to start by using all of Forsyth then add a few extra moderately R leaning Counties in the north for the tossup.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/533404207668133888/707062709010694144/unknown.png
Blue is the main COI for the 4 districts and green is the remaining 250k or so pop needed to boost it to exactly 4 districts by 2018 pop.

Yes, any Dem court map is going to find a way to squeeze 4 D/Competitive seats out of the cities in north NC. However, they probably won't go with exactly the blue counties you selected because of the cascade effect it would have of the map. The 1st is already getting desperate for more favorable turf, so it probably needs AT LEAST one of Franklin or Granville. Even still, it would then require eating more from the west of the state. This then either requires 9 to give up needed swingy turf in the Sandhills or Johnston ends up with one of the eastern seats - neither a good outcome. That said, taking in a bit of red won't really hurt any of the seats in the long term - the court drawn map I suggested above for instance found a way to get a swing seat out of the region even with Johnston and Hernet. there is zero chance a dem court map tries to revive 2016 NC02 like in sols previous map.

Also, I will go over Sol's response point by point later, when it is not 11pm at night.

You mean the green counties right?
The blue ones are the big counties while the green counties are what I needed to boost up the district. Anyway IMO the 4th "Triangle" district should still be pretty R leaning like sol's map but yeah   a D court is gonna shove that 4th seat in, similar to decisions like PA 17th(made for Lamb) or smaller decisions like PA 1st which shifted it 3 points left, or PA 10th to squeeze a seat there.(taking in York)

[lfromnj]

If y'all are concerned about adding another Dem district, how about this?

Yeah that should work, Also the court may try to make the 2nd Mecklenburg district more competitive say around Trump +9 or +8.

[lfromnj]

Butterfield might need Durham back, in some deal or so considering he is only up by 8 points. I think a 9-5 map is probably what happens. NC D's look likely to take a net of -1 in the state supreme court and possibly -2 to a total of 4-3.

[lfromnj]

If there's a concern about Butterfield you could also draw something like this, pronging into Raleigh instead of Durham.



It has the advantage of relieving the pressure on ENC, thereby allowing for more logical districts--though obviously it's still not optimal. Eastern Wake County is also getting a good bit Blacker, which might help too if there are concerns about a decline in minority communities in the Northeast.

Well I still believe that a rural coi is key im merely commentating on what could happen

[lfromnj]

As the court seems its heading towards 4-3 here is a clean map the NC GOP could draw. Guilford can mostly be drowned out by Randolph but it still is Clinton +3 FWIW. I didn't take much of Durham btw, its only like 10k.

[lfromnj]

As the court seems its heading towards 4-3 here is a clean map the NC GOP could draw. Guilford can mostly be drowned out by Randolph but it still is Clinton +3 FWIW. I didn't take much of Durham btw, its only like 10k.

are any of the R seats marginal?

The one with Fayetville and Hudson kinda is at Trump +7.

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a802d155-c302-4c53-a994-d876550a22c4

Here's the link.

[lfromnj]

Technically it should be neither, it would be a swing district but all of us know thats unlikely.

[lfromnj]

Technically it should be neither, it would be a swing district but all of us know thats unlikely.

Yeah Harnett, Johnston and southern wake right

Yeah what I did in my moderate GOP map was have eastern Wake taken up by the black seat basically which cancels the need for this new swing seat.

[lfromnj]

Which is why Southern wake and Harnett and Chatham works great.

[lfromnj]

Reminder that fair map and non-partisan map are NOT the same and pro-Dem lines in the Triangle are perfectly fine if the aim is to have a map proportional to the state.

It depends on what you are doing in the rest of the state and if you are engaging in horesh@%t like the parrellel 8th and 9th etc, then sure, but those are not even justifiable in any map, any more then the Asheville 10th bs or the Johnston in with Wilmington garbage.

I actually think I drew a fair map which did unfortunately squish Johnston with Wilmington, it was unfortunate but it was a leftover district for that

[lfromnj]

Technically it should be neither, it would be a swing district but all of us know thats unlikely.

A fair map pretty clearly produces 6 Democratic districts and then a tossup, but yeah, it's unlikely. Anyway, the black belt seat, Charlotte seat, Triad seat, and 3 Triangle seats should go to Dems (plus a Sandhills toss-up). Dropping a Triangle seat for a Chapel Hill-Fayetteville seat (yielding 6D-8R) or dropping a Triangle seat for a Chatham-Alamance-Orange-Person-Randolph-Guildford-Rockingham tossup seat and a Sandhill tossup seat (yielding 5D-7R-2S) would also be acceptable.

Going for 9+ safe R seats, however, simply isn't going to fly.

Not really sure how you get 3 Democratic Triangle seats if you're going for a fair map? It'd be more like 2-1R or 2-0-1 at best.

District 1: Burlington, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill, Cary, Apex, Pittsboro
District 2: Durham, RTP, Wake Forest, Henderson
District 3: Raleigh, East Wake, Johnston County

Yea, thats D gerrymander straight out of 2002.

I am not going to get trapped into this R versus D gerrymandering dance of death.

How?

The Raleigh-Durham MSA has 2,105,771 people. That's 2.9 congressional districts. Adding in Caswell and Person Counties brings it up to 3.0. Starting out, you obviously have to pair Wake and Johnston Counties.

This is where the first problem comes in. Wake+Johnston is 1.7 congressional districts. You have to drop 0.7 of a cd and give it to the rest of the metro area in the north and west. Conveniently, the cities of Cary, Apex, Holly Springs, and Wake Forest add up to 0.7 congressional districts. Since they are closer to Durham/Chapel Hill than Johnston County, they should obviously be paired with the former.

The second challenge is dividing Caswell, Person, Granville, Vance, Warren, Franklin, Durham, Orange, Alamance, Chatham, North Wake, and West Wake into two congressional districts. Obviously, Caswell, Person, Orange, Alamance, and Chatham should be lumped together based on geography. However, that's only 0.6 of a congressional district. You can choose to get the remaining 0.4 of a congressional district by splitting the city of Durham (not ideal) or take it from Cary/Apex/Holly Springs (much better.)

This leaves behind a district of Durham, Granville, Vance, Warren, Franklin, and Wake Forest.

What else would you do?

Well unfortunately I don't think that the MSAs are fundamentally great guidelines in this circumstance.

First of all, Durham and Raleigh are both relatively small cities. Johnston, for example, is very much an exurban rather than inner urban county--the kind of place where a lot of it is fairly rural still (NCYankee please correct if wrong). Franklin is similar.

Granville and Person are even less metropolitan; Southern Granville isn't too far from Durham but the northern portion is pretty dang rural. Person is pretty much just in the metro because it's small and has a weak economy --> more commuters. Even Chatham has areas (Western half) which aren't really oriented towards the Triangle.

The Black Belt counties you put into the Durham district are not good fits. Granted, Henderson is part of the CSA, but it's a lot more like Roanoke Rapids or Rocky Mount in most matters of culture or economy. No clue why you put Warren in there. Plus the 1st district needs those Black voters to continue to perform under the VRA.

I actually don't think there's anything objectionable about putting Johnston into a district with Wake if you do it smartly--i.e. not sinking it in with Raleigh but putting in Wake Forest, Garner, Fuquay-Varina, along with other exurbanish areas like Franklin.

I don't think anyone here is complaining about Johnston being with Wake, its probably one of the better choices, its just obviously not with Raleigh.

[lfromnj]

Is NC really gaining a seat in 2022?

It was 436 in 2012 so 100% .

[lfromnj]

I mean putting Randolph with Orange/Durham is just a clear and obvious way to unsink those 2 counties lol and there is no reason to split Raleigh in half to get a 2nd Safe D district there. If you want to talk about a D court map, go ahead but that isn't a good map.

[lfromnj]

No there isn't if you want a more proportional map, then do logical stuff like putting Wautauga with Western NC having the Charlotte district take in North Mecklenburg so the main suburban district can be a bit more swing, then form a last swing district in the actual Raleigh suburbs instead of that absurd gerrymander which splits a major city to form 2 Safe districts.

[lfromnj]

No thats stupid, you can easily create a lean Rsuburban seat based on Cary/Apex instead of blatantly splitting Raleigh.

[lfromnj]

No thats stupid, you can easily create a lean Rsuburban seat based on Cary/Apex instead of blatantly splitting Raleigh.

Blatantly splitting Raleigh is better if it creates an extra bona fide Democratic district as opposed to one lean/likely R seat and one solid Dem one.

So its a D gerrymander then?

[lfromnj]

Proportional isn't fair if actual districts are involved, Nothing stays proportional for 10 years, what do you do if some trends cause the map to go 10 -3 or something?

[lfromnj]

Would this type of map ever get approved in NC? Its a 9R - 5D map

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::cf4d4eb1-0b6a-4d93-a24e-340dc8141612

No because you double bunked Bishop and Hudson. Bishop lives somewhere in south Charlotte while Hudson is from Cabbarus.

[lfromnj]

Here's a coincidentally proportional that is also made with mostly non partisan intent map that actually plays within the bounds of communities instead of drowning out Randolph and Johnston with mega Democratic areas.

5 Safe D with 1 lean D trending R and 2 Lean/Likely  R trending D with a last likely R not trending anywhere and 6 Safe R.

[lfromnj]

Here's a coincidentally proportional that is also made with mostly non partisan intent map that actually plays within the bounds of communities instead of drowning out Randolph and Johnston with mega Democratic areas.

5 Safe D with 1 lean D trending R and 2 Lean/Likely  R trending D with a last likely R not trending anywhere and 6 Safe R.

Best map I have seen all day.

Agreed, from a fairness standpoint.  I think it might be the first one where Cawthorn’s seat isn’t an a R gerrymander.

Uh what?

There are plenty of other districts that are fair in Western NC this one has the advantage of making the seat back to slightly swingy. The OLD NC 11th didn't have Wautauga either in 2002.

[lfromnj]

Here's a coincidentally proportional that is also made with mostly non partisan intent map that actually plays within the bounds of communities instead of drowning out Randolph and Johnston with mega Democratic areas.

5 Safe D with 1 lean D trending R and 2 Lean/Likely  R trending D with a last likely R not trending anywhere and 6 Safe R.

Best map I have seen all day.

I think it might be the first one where Cawthorn’s seat isn’t an a R gerrymander.

Actually, I would argue running the 11th up to Boone is a subtle but real gerrymander or at least has the looks of one, while the whole-county configuration you see on the maps I posted is more of a non-partisan map kind of arrangement that has more compactness is in the vein of the shapes the district had from the 80s till 2013.

Its a touch of a very light D gerrymander but for partisan fairness decisions much less worse than drawing Johnston with Raleigh. Drawing upto Boone also does go along with the Blue Ridge Mountain ranges so I consider it acceptable. After drawing my fully non partisan map I made a few changes that made the map "fair" which included the Boone Arm.

5 Safe D  with 1 Lean R and 1 Lean R  trending oppositely means 6 D seats and then 2 Likely R is worth about half a D seat.




source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_North_Carolina

As you can see in the county map the mountain range only continues in the Boone Arm .

[lfromnj]

I mean it was an alternative option that I still found 100% acceptable and it creates a nice compact 10th district in return.



Anyway 11-3 NC, 2 shakiest seats are a Wake seat and Bishop's. Honestly Bishop's seat is a masterpiece because any trend in Charlotte will probably be counteracted by the sandhills trend leaving it as a permanently Likely R seat.

Used Hudson who lives in Cabarrus to take high point so I could use Randolph to drown out Fayetville.

Edit:shored up the Wake seat by giving it Franklin and taking out Wilson.


Don't really see a point going for 10-4, you can't create 2 Charlotte sinks really as 1 is clearly enough, You might as well drown out the Piedmont Triad using the 70% R counties surrounding them so that just leaves you the Black +Durham seat and the Chapelhill with Raleigh

The trick with any NC gerrymander is to use the counter trend areas wisely . About half the wake seat is just medium town deep southern areas which aren't really going to move left. The Triad might be moving left but the rest of the area isn't etc.

The old NC map 2011 to 2016 despite all its ugliness actually did focus a touch on suburban communities  so it included a suburban Raleigh and suburban Charlotte seat that would have certainly flipped in 2018.