North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Torie]

Here is a “new and improved” map that probably most effectively leashes the Dems to 3 seats for the balance of the decade. Brutal stuff. It in particular excises NC-01 from Wake County, while NC-13 still has a pretty good pad to survive the hostile trends going forward in the 10% or so of the CD that is in Wake County to take up the slack from NC-01.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/aa533672-f562-47cb-a759-2d584d631cc1

[Torie]

This is the least offensive NC map that creates safe Pub seats outside of 3 Dem vote sinks that with the constraints of my failing abilities, I was able to concoct.



It requires a chop of Greensboro to make it “work.”



Even though I got up a 5 am today (Dan and Roby were still asleep on the throne bed when I returned, but I digress) to drive 20 minutes into the hinterlands of the Taconic Hills to swim 20 laps at a high school pool (I have to exercise or die, and I not quite ready for the latter and the pool heater was on the fritz, so the water was quite frigid – pro tip, just dive in and for about 10 seconds pretend your fingernails are being pulled out without anesthetic, but this too will pass), I still feel like I need a shower now.  (Now you know why I will never do a ask Torie anything thread – you know far more than you ever wanted to know about the mouthy, opinionated geezer.)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/08cda99f-f5b1-452f-9627-69567267b957

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/decunningham2/status/1603792842718998528?cxt=HHwWgMCjufvF6ME...

The hope that stare decisis might have some traction with the new members of the Court.

[Torie]

Let the take no prisoners gerrymander begin.

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1651974129938046978?t=cCqyuUWuNlZqBsKfig4Vew&s=19

[Torie]

Here is my best effort to balance beauty and efficacy for the Pubmander. Will the Pubs show this much restraint, or will they be inspired by the Illinois map to try to snatch another CD?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8b6998b4-28cf-4fcd-bbb5-8e38b874c4c9



I don't think the Dems will get much out of WI and NY. We shall see.

[Torie]

Why would Milligan prevent the GOP from gerrymandering NC-01 out of existence? It is currently drawn basically to maximize Black population, and it's still only 41% Black by VAP. Obviously it is a Black performing district (for now) but still, couldn't North Carolina just say, "well, there is no minority population sizeable and compact enough to be a majority in a compact single member district here, therefore Gingles prong 1 fails and this district is not protected by Section 2"? I think you'd probably have a stronger case arguing that gerrymandering NC-01 out of existence is a racial gerrymander impermissible under the Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments. I think this case would be very strong, but it would be more analogous to the South Carolina redistricting challenge pending before the Supreme Court than to Milligan.

You can draw a more black seat, but VRA seats don’t require black majority, just one that lets black voters elect the candidate of their choosing.

What if the black % is kept simillar, but exchanging Greenville (which actually has some liberal whites) for some more conservative small towns and rurals? This can push NC-01 to be a right trending narrow Biden or even narrowly Trump seat while still being like 40-41% black. Would this be illegal?

If Gingles requires the drawing of a 50% BVAP CD that takes in some urban black precincts in the Triangle, then assuming a swing CD is deemed not a black performing CD (why would it?), the answer is most probably no. The issue is whether getting a NE area CD in NC up to 50% BVAP is a map that looks pretty enough to the Court and gets enough neutral metrics points. The answer is probably yes (the Gingles trigger map in AL is not all that perfect), and a Pub gerrymander is overall going to look a heck of a lot worse in comparison. Justice Roberts would go into a feeding frenzy.

The only out is if a 50% BVAP CD can be drawn using reasonably neutral metrics that is swing. If so, that would probably pass muster. 50% should be a safe harbor unless games are played (e.g., packing in prisons where nobody votes).

[Torie]

Somebody or several bodies needs to read the Allen v. Milligan decision with more care, assuming they have read it at all.

Here is the cleanest map I can draw that I had the skill to draw that turns NC-01 into a Gingles CD. It was tough going.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe568442-204c-48a4-be07-54e2969d0fff

[Torie]

Somebody or several bodies needs to read the Allen v. Milligan decision with more care, assuming they have read it at all.

Here is the cleanest map I can draw that I had the skill to draw that turns NC-01 into a Gingles CD. It was tough going.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe568442-204c-48a4-be07-54e2969d0fff

Can we stop with the splitting of Guilford and Forsyth counties?  I understand that they don’t need to be put in the same district, but at least keep them whole.  Something like the 2016 map is fine in this area, but just keep Guilford whole this time.

That is what a Pubmander requires alas. There is no escape. Guilford needs to be split to draw a Gingles CD as well.

[Torie]

Somebody or several bodies needs to read the Allen v. Milligan decision with more care, assuming they have read it at all.

Here is the cleanest map I can draw that I had the skill to draw that turns NC-01 into a Gingles CD. It was tough going.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe568442-204c-48a4-be07-54e2969d0fff

Can we stop with the splitting of Guilford and Forsyth counties?  I understand that they don’t need to be put in the same district, but at least keep them whole.  Something like the 2016 map is fine in this area, but just keep Guilford whole this time.

That is what a Pubmander requires alas. There is no escape. Guilford needs to be split to draw a Gingles CD as well.

It's my understanding that under Cooper v. Harris NC-01 doesn't need to be over 50% BVAP to be performing, and in fact said iteration of the district was ruled to be a violation of the VRA by everyone on the court, including the conservatives.

In fact, if you want to draw a Republican gerrymander, giving NC-01 white liberals in Durham is way more useful than dipping into Greensboro, because the eastern half of the state is much less Republican, making it harder to pack Democrats. Meanwhile it's pretty easy to sink the Triad with hyper-Republican communities in the Piedmont and Foothills.

You need the 50% number as one prong to trigger Gingles as you well know. if you can't draw it on a "compact" basis, then the VRA does not apply. The Pubs "should" just draw the Pubmander below, and if someone says VRA, say hey, court draw your Gingles CD (that horrible looking thing above), and we will ask Roberts and Kavanaugh to take a look at it.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/53a2e5ca-e6e9-44a2-93b8-cee2b10e80d1



The most aesthetic looking NC-01 will fall into the Pub’s lap in due course, maybe even in 2024.

[Torie]

Nothing in the current SCOTUS iteration of the VRA precludes dilution. That prong is dead. The only thing a hostile 4th Circuit could do is force the Gingles CD. I doubt that will happen, particularly with a NC-01 that looks so nice and pretty and compact and yeah, drawn hewing to neutral redistricting principles, that would need to be tossed into the dumpster.