North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[lfromnj]

Gotta say, Dems attempting to wave away past/present Democratic gerrymandering is pretty cringe

It's definitely fair to say that Democrats are better on the issue (considering how the party has passed independent commissions in several states) but attempting to justify IL gerrymandering as necessary to avoid unilateral disarmament or excuse the disgusting NC 2000 map by claiming it as a conservadem thing (lol) shows that you actually don't care about the issue.

I mean a large portion of it is precedent from HW bush forcing it but yeah it definitely wasn't a conservadem issue. Brad Millers district wasn't needed but he got himself a free seat.


But as you mentioned in that weakest state party thread the North Carolina Democrats have long had atleast a small base of Urban white liberals. Cooper and Cunningham weren't exactly these(Nash and Salisbury) but I don't think anyone could call them DINO's. Funnily enough wasn't David Price relatively moderate although now he just seems to be a generic progressive backbencher.

Overall in 2008 the NC map elected 8 Democrats

2 black Democrats(Butterfield/Watts)
3 White liberals(Etherridge/Miller/Price) with broad meaning of the liberals as voted to pass AHCA.
2 Moderate Democrats(Larry Kissel and Schuler)
1 probably DINO(McIntyre)

I think the unilateral disarmament thing is a fair enough argument and not sure why you argue against it though. I mostly just posted earlier to correct Brittain's mostly incorrect history.
 

[lfromnj]

By the way is the new Charlotte district the most compact district in the entire nation?
(And yes Circle > Square such as in Wyoming.)

[lfromnj]

Funny how overall NC-6 is actually pretty compact and clean except for the bottom part which is absolutely horrendous lol. From what I've heard though it's more for the sake of roughly following some city lines rather than for real partisan reasons.

This is why after a certain point following these lines to a tea really ain't worth it IMO.

Yeah it also makes it such a headache for election administrators as each split precinct is a pain to deal with. It definitely is going to be the new earmuffs if the lines stand.

[lfromnj]

What are the odds that the lawsuit works again and this map gets drawn by the NC SC?

A lot of situations

Scenario 1: Gets struck down and NC GOP is allowed a redraw to something resulting in 9-5 with a narrow Trump district in the Fayetteville region

Scenario 2: Gets struck down and court takes over and the court takes a dem/special master plan. The Court could theoretically get impeached over this as well.

Scenario 3: About to get struck down but the NC GOP decide to impeach the state supreme court.

Scenario 4: Doesn't reach trial and stuck in appeals if 4 dems decide not to overrule Newby.  Dems are probably on the path to lose the court in 2022


Other scenarios could include a limited VRA intervention in Butterfields district ec.

[lfromnj]

Finally, similar to District 11 in the 2016 Plan, Legislative Defendants created a
safe Republican seat in District 14 by capturing heavily Republican counties in the western part
29
of the state, pairing them with Asheville’s Democratic voters to ensure that they cannot elect a
candidate of their choice. District 14 pairs Watauga County and Buncombe for the first time
since the 1870s and meticulously avoids the Watauga County boot covering Republican
incumbent Virginia Fox

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e909f4422f7a40a188de597/t/61859e7b8789a02515e620e2/1636146812238/2021.11.05+Supplemental+Complaint.pdf

According to the lawsuit Asheville voters should be afforded a VRA district.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/DallasWoodhouse/status/1458614993126105088

Posting here as well.

[lfromnj]

Wow. This must be really new news. I'm real-life friends with Jasmine Beach-Ferrara (D candidate in NC-14) and I haven't heard from her campaign about this yet.

RIP money machine.

[lfromnj]

Are there no lawsuits on the legislative maps?

I guess for the state senate district if a court struck down anything other than SD1 and SD02 , I think the NC GOP would certainly impeach the court because the rest of the map is forcibly reasonable.

[lfromnj]

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article256309297.html

No blocking, they also muddled the case heavily by mixing the legislative maps and the congressional map

[lfromnj]

Superior Court Judges Nathaniel Poovey and Dawn Layton joined in the decision.

This was merely just a preliminary injunction but interestingly the Cooper justice joined as well.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/north-carolina/articles/2021-12-03/nc-judges-weigh-attempts-to-block-elections-under-new-maps

[lfromnj]

This is pointless. The SCONC will flip anyway and republicans will draw another gerrymander mid decade

There’s no downside for us; why not fight it in court and see what we can get?

This.  It's also unconstitutional in NC to redraw the state legislative districts mid-decade, so if either of those maps get thrown out, the changes will stick.  Dems could plausibly flip a chamber over the course of the decade.

The question is what should be changed in the state senate maps for example other than the  NE senate districts. If the court starts demanding the NC GOP just start gerrymandering certain legislative districts in favor of the Democrats they might just go the impeachment route.


A lot of the legislative lawsuits is merely sticking everything they can. It really does risk a crisis.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/TravisFain/status/1467990073043996675

[lfromnj]

This is pointless. The SCONC will flip anyway and republicans will draw another gerrymander mid decade

There’s no downside for us; why not fight it in court and see what we can get?

This.  It's also unconstitutional in NC to redraw the state legislative districts mid-decade, so if either of those maps get thrown out, the changes will stick.  Dems could plausibly flip a chamber over the course of the decade.

The question is what should be changed in the state senate maps for example other than the  NE senate districts. If the court starts demanding the NC GOP just start gerrymandering certain legislative districts in favor of the Democrats they might just go the impeachment route.


A lot of the legislative lawsuits is merely sticking everything they can. It really does risk a crisis.

well seats like that 29 look quite bizarre, though I still expect the GOP to come out with a map that'd give them House and Senate majorities after the lawsuit, on the congressional level, the big sticking point is ofc NC-01 with a valid argument that it has been illegally diluted.

29 is a county cluster and its super safe r.The court isn't touching that. No partisan purposes here.

[lfromnj]

North Carolina Supreme Court has agreed to delay the primaries.

https://twitter.com/SFalmlen/status/1468697706994544640?s=20

GOOD

If the NCGOP wants war, they'll get war. They might still win it, but they'll have to fight it out and pay a price.

All out war ends in impeachment, the NC court should be careful about pushing it too far especially with regards to legislative districts. You tell me what you would strike down on the above senate maps.

https://sites.duke.edu/quantifyinggerrymandering/files/2021/08/countyClusters2020.pdf

Use these if you are confused about any weird districts. For example 19/21 look weird but are 100% justifiable.  Democrats wanted to split Fayetteville in 2 to get 2 Dem seats. The GOP merely said no to that. In exchange they were however consistent on the senate map and did not split Wilmington. If the NC court is going to say you can't split Wilmington but must split Fayetteville they really are pushing their luck.

[lfromnj]

I think the more egregious state legislative districts are in the lower chamber?

To some degree.
https://www.carolinaforward.org/blog/state-house-gerrymander

Heres what I think are the Democrat complaints.

First one is Wilmington. But actually the thing is it seems IMO to me that Wilmington is actually Dem friendly in the state house map because instead of packing Wilmington into 1 district it splits it into 2 which thereby creates a 2nd Cooper district while leaving the main seat somewhat safe. Ok so first one can be chalked off to Dem whining. The deviation complaints are also total BS here because even if the district is 4.8% overpopulated the surrounding districts are similarly overpopulated because the cluster as a whole is very overpopulated.

Pitt: Somehow a North south split of this county is a gerrymander by creating a 61% Biden seat and a 53% Trump seat. I don't really like it and I think a donut here makes more sense but the partisan effect would exactly be the same.

Cumberland: The GOP made 2 swing seats for their 2 incumbents . I think this attack is reasonable although the swing seats are merely swing seats and both voted for Cooper. The GOP didn't even abuse the "rotten borough" of Fort Bragg so it isn't that egregious. I think the court could reasonably shut this down to just forcing 1 GOP seat though.

Next on the list is Durham/Wake. The Durham seat has legitimate complaints but no drawing 2 Trump Wake seats in the North and South is perfectly justifiable.

Chatham/Randolph: GOP conceded that one already for the final map and the seat is now Biden +6 instead of Biden +1. Ergo doesn't matter.

Guilford/Forsyth: These are weird to draw. I think Guilford is fine but Forsyth is a medium  GOP gerrymander. They didn't go all in as I think the 3rd seat voted for Cooper but it still seems to be a GOP gerrymander. Forsyth is a bit awkward to draw .

Mecklenburg: More Dem whining. Northern seat loses a precinct thanks to an extra seat in the first place but somehow that is GOP gerrymandering. Southern swing seat as well.

Watauga/Ashe: Dems did win the Watauga seat in 2018 fwiw but at the same time they didn't remove Dem precincts from Watauga and one of the counties had to be split anyway

Buncombe: No Democrats, the GOP getting 1 R seat or 2 swing seats from Buncombe is perfectly reasonable as Asheville is a super pack. The map is ugly I guess  and I wouldn't mind a redraw to what I drew earlier in this thread when discussing with Sol but the effect would be the same.

Surprisingly the post didn't mention what I would actually call a gerrymander unlike most of this whining.

Cabarrus/Gastonia. You can draw a Cooper seat based in Gastonia which is Trump +4. They also split Cabarrus in a GOP friendly way . This is pretty egregious but if I was the Democrats I would consider letting it stay I guess as it could very likely dummymander.


The simple answer is if you place a strict relatively non partisan criteria such as the county clusters, you can't gerrymander that much. The GOP managed to get some egregious legislative gerrymanders in 2010 by breaking the counties to just claim every seat was VRA. Thomas struck down that down.

[lfromnj]

Top is NC GOP map,
Bottom is my expectation of a fair map for this cluster. NC GOP green district isn't even contiguous lol. My map creates a logical Wilmington seat, one Coastal New Hanover seat, one inland seat with both counties featuring the suburbs of Wilmington and one Coastal Brunswick seat. The court could shut this down I guess and I would be fine with it because its good for COI but it merely hurts Democrats so not sure why they would do this. The other option is to make the area even more Dem friendly for some reason.

[lfromnj]

North Carolina Supreme Court has agreed to delay the primaries.

https://twitter.com/SFalmlen/status/1468697706994544640?s=20

GOOD

If the NCGOP wants war, they'll get war. They might still win it, but they'll have to fight it out and pay a price.

All out war ends in impeachment, the NC court should be careful about pushing it too far especially with regards to legislative districts. You tell me what you would strike down on the above senate maps.

https://sites.duke.edu/quantifyinggerrymandering/files/2021/08/countyClusters2020.pdf

Use these if you are confused about any weird districts. For example 19/21 look weird but are 100% justifiable.  Democrats wanted to split Fayetteville in 2 to get 2 Dem seats. The GOP merely said no to that. In exchange they were however consistent on the senate map and did not split Wilmington. If the NC court is going to say you can't split Wilmington but must split Fayetteville they really are pushing their luck.

The lawsuit also includes CD maps, right? Obviously those are indefensible.

Yes its both.  I still want to hear your perspective on what legislative districts you would change. Analysis is very easy and objective with regards to legislative districts as you can easily only rotate a few at a time.

[lfromnj]

I could easily see the state court dismissing all the suits except for the obviously gerrymandered choice of clusters in the NE/NC-02. I also think that's less likely to result in backlash from the NCGA, since those are relatively insignificant portions of the map and it's obviously a bit out on a limb anyway.

Ultimately the real reason why the current lines are bad for Dems on the state legislative level comes down to a combination of unlucky clusters (especially in the house) and a crummy rural vote distribution, especially in the eastern part of the state, where there are a lot of 54R-46D type districts unless you try very hard to avoid this.

There is of course the occasional GOP thumb on the scale, which is certainly present (see the Charlotte suburbs as lfromnj mentioned) but tbh the county cluster rule imposes such intense regulation on districting that it makes it hard to do sophisticated gerrymandering of any kind. Often too these are justifiable--Moore+Outer Cumberland is no worse that Moore+Fayetteville.

The thing about the county cluster rule is that it basically acts as an insurance policy, preventing each party from getting thrown out by an overpowered gerrymander.

My big issue with it tbh is that the clusters often don't make any sense with reference to geography (as seen in the above discussion) or communities--you get jokes like Moore+Cumberland.

^^This is my big takeaway about the cluster rule: it prevents anything drastic by creating dumb random seats that aren't good at doing anything : it blocks gerrymandering and incumbent protection but also blocks sensible lines and population equality.  Democrats argued for the county rule because it was the obvious way to overturn Republican maps but now it's in place I'd argue that it's an obstacle to genuinely good mapping.

Did you mean the thumb on the scale as the actual Mecklenburg districts or the surrounding counties? Like the Southern Charlotte senate district is perhaps one could describe as that as its a quite reasonable district although they likely pushed certain precincts, but the splits of Cabarrus and especially Gastonia are not what I would call the thumb on a scale but just full out gerrymandering.

Also I think the cluster rule works ok for the state house? Obviously state senate has some joke clusters like as the aforementioned Cumberland/Moore one but I can't really see anything that bad in the state house other than the Chatham to Richmond 5 district cluster. Even then its really only Moore county that gets screwed there.

Also I went ahead and looked some other areas that are gerrymandered by the NC GOP in the state house which weren't mentioned by that Dem group.

Alamance:  GOP gerrymander that splits Burlington to keep the Dem seat more swingy while still not risking the GOP outer seat too much.

Robeson: They split the Lumbee areas.  The Democrats offered an amendment to fix this but the GOP refused for some reason. Not really partisan, just not sure why they didn't fix it. The Lumbee are more elastic than whites but the seat still flips at this point.

edit: The split of the Lumbee isn't super egregious as the district is still 45% native and the Dem amendment split Lumberton compared to the R proposal which keeps it whole.

Onslow: Not sure if this is a full gerrymander but it is reasonably possible to use the "Rotten Borough" of the military base to create a Cooper seat in this deep red county.

[lfromnj]

What are the odds this map gets overturned by the court? What would happen next?

Overturned, in part of in whole is pretty likely, though not a shoe-in

Thing is though I don’t think the court can actually seize redistricting power in NC so it goes back to leg who prolly draws something that technically is what the court wants to see but is still gerrymandered.

Technically the court can do whatever they want. The leg just has a realistic nuclear option.

[lfromnj]

Technically the court can do whatever they want. The leg just has a realistic nuclear option.

Lol imagined getting impeach for using special master to draw a map.

This is where our system really starts to fail. There are no repercussions for lawmakers who do this, even though their motives and actions are brazenly corrupt.

the repercussions are elections, if voters see no fault with the legislators' actions then so be it

When you use gerrymandering to rig the elections in your favor, then impeach if the court tries to undo this gerrymandering, you create a Catch 22.

Well as I said, I don't know if it would happen. I highly doubt they would do it over fixing the major gerrymander in the legislative district which is the 2 NE senate districts. But on the other hand there isn't much one could definetively say was a gerrymander in the state senate. The state house has a few examples like Cabarrus/Gastonia. Overall the court would definetely be pushing their luck by "ungerrymandering" a map that doesn't have much to really change. Maybe there is appetite for it at all. ProgMods statement about being worried from blowback is certainly a factor which is why there is no point in fighting a fix of the VRA senate districts. Infact even if the court fixes that it is possible the GOP could still win both seats anyway.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/lekhashupeck/status/1478055610209951753

As we can see the point of this lawsuit is not merely to prevent a GOP gerrymander but to make Democratic gerrymanders in reverse.

Having an R buncombe district or 2 swing districts is reasonable. I don't know why the GOP made it so ugly though. There aren't any R incumbent demands here as all 3 are D.This is simply due to the fact that even If Buncombe is a safe D County there is an Asheville pack. The rest of the county is like Biden +2. The plaintiffs rather than actually fighting for fair maps by demanding that Gastonia not be split demands an Asheville crack to save the 3 Dem incumbents.

Note that the GOP map is still bad imo but what the plaintiffs are demanding is much worse.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/lekhashupeck/status/1478055610209951753

As we can see the point of this lawsuit is not merely to prevent a GOP gerrymander but to make Democratic gerrymanders in reverse.

Having an R buncombe district or 2 swing districts is reasonable. I don't know why the GOP made it so ugly though. There aren't any R incumbent demands here as all 3 are D.This is simply due to the fact that even If Buncombe is a safe D County there is an Asheville pack. The rest of the county is like Biden +2. The plaintiffs rather than actually fighting for fair maps by demanding that Gastonia not be split demands an Asheville crack to save the 3 Dem incumbents.

Note that the GOP map is still bad imo but what the plaintiffs are demanding is much worse.

All of the Democratic incumbents in Asheville are retiring though--I don't think it's that. (And it's not a side effect of the maps as far as I can tell, the two who are in safe districts are leaving too).

IMO it's more of a combination of wanting genuinely proportional districts--which is understandable though I disagree, genuinely not thinking of Gastonia as an area where they could get a district (Gaston County has a much smaller footprint in D party politics than Buncombe), and, in recognition of the previous judicial decision which split Asheville three ways, going for something which might be more attractive to the court.

Fair enough. A Gastonia district would still help with proportionalityif one cares. It would be +2 Cooper. So this would be a swing seat Democrats could win if they are winning North Carolina. Unlike the other mill towns in Western NC it seems that Gastonia has not trended much in any direction so overall the seat would be a possible majority winner for Democrats.
Also let's not forget a Biden Cabarrus district . Although Democrats are new to Cabarrus that would be a possible diversifying district that Democrats could win. Even then the old Asheville map never really needed to be fixed if one cared about proportionality. Packing Asheville into 1 super blue seat and then evenly dividing the rest of the county would result in 2 very narrow Biden seats. So still keeps proportionality it is just that those seats would be competive. I really don't think the goal here is proportionality but another reason. It's very suspicious these good government groups which always want "competive" districts and/or proportionality don't instead ask for the option of 2 hyper competitve Buncombe districts. It's also not terrible on COI grounds as it just requires cherry picking a few precicnts really.  


Also I know you would know about the Gastonia district but here we go. Cooper +2, Trump +4 2020 and Tillis +5 in 2014. I used 2014 as I think its a good way to show the trends in NC.



An Actual good government group that cares about balancing proportionality/competitive concerns should obviously sue for this. 2 narrow Biden seats(+1/+2) which Democrats would easily win in a year like 2018. It keeps most of the city of Asheville together and only has a few cherry picked precincts to keep both districts a bit evened out(not what I would do but its not the worst).

Instead the demand is that the 3 Safe D protection offer stay in place instead of actual "good government" districts. Overall I can't see any reason other than your court ruling reason to go for 3 Asheville districts.


Also yes the Asheville district here is a slight Dem overpack but nothing crazy. Point is just to demonstrate that the older GOP dummymander is what should have been kept from certain perspectives.
Overall you are right with one of your points about the Dem footprints. Asheville seems like an area more involved in politics rather than more diverse working class areas in Cabarrus/Gastonia. It seems to be that they want to control 3 districts rather than merely 1. Meanwhile Cabarrus and Gastonia are overlooked.

[lfromnj]

SNIP

Technically if you are willing to cut 5-7 precincts you can get a compact Gastonia seat <50% White by population. Obviously not VRA protected given the VAP and the electoral results demonstrating the need for a higher minority%, but if you are drawing a compact seat, why not go all the way?

I don't see how you can get that.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/will_doran/status/1478480966100275200

Atlas user in NC court.

[lfromnj]

So what is the TLDR for this point in time on the outcome?

The map used in 2020 was pretty damn fair, it's frustrating that it couldn't just have been kept in place, since that *should* satisfy the rationals on both sides.

There's 14 districts in the first place.