Will Matt Bevin win by more or less than he did in 2015?
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  Will Matt Bevin win by more or less than he did in 2015?		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Will Matt Bevin win by more or less than he did in 2015?  (Read 1685 times)
IceSpear
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« on: October 29, 2019, 08:36:01 PM »
The only interesting question about KY-Gov, other than about the swings we're sure to get from individual counties.

Bevin won by 8.7% in 2015.

I'm guessing more, but I would not be stunned if it was slightly less.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2019, 08:55:43 PM »
Quote from: Bevinevitable on October 29, 2019, 08:36:01 PM
The only interesting question about KY-Gov, other than about the swings we're sure to get from individual counties.

Bevin won by 8.7% in 2015.

I'm guessing moreless, but I would not be stunned if it was less more.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2019, 08:59:54 PM »
Less because he will lose😀
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2019, 09:01:17 PM »
More. If he’s polling 6-10 ahead now, oof. We know how KY polling is
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Pericles
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2019, 09:06:10 PM »
Around about the same I think, if he wins by 9.5% or 8.5% it's not really much difference.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2019, 09:08:59 PM »
Hes gonna lose
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2019, 10:27:05 PM »
Quote from: TrendsareReal on October 29, 2019, 09:01:17 PM
More. If he’s polling 6-10 ahead now, oof. We know how KY polling is

Literally no polls have said that. Except maybe polls conducted entirely within your ass.

The latest real poll had Beshear up 19 points.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2019, 10:36:16 PM »
Quote from: KYWildman on October 29, 2019, 10:27:05 PM
Quote from: TrendsareReal on October 29, 2019, 09:01:17 PM
More. If he’s polling 6-10 ahead now, oof. We know how KY polling is

Literally no polls have said that. Except maybe polls conducted entirely within your ass.

The latest real poll had Beshear up 19 points.

I believe he is referring to Bevin's internals, which are no less credible than the Beshear internals you guys were wanking over all summer.

Also, I am not pretending to be a Kentucky Republican, it is simply a tribute to Matt Bevin's inevitability. Smiley
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Roblox
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2019, 10:41:14 PM »
I voted more. I'm feeling 53-43 or 54-42. Maybe 53-44 or something on the low end.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2019, 11:54:09 PM »
If he wins by low double digits, which I'm thinking he might, it will obviously be more. Beshear is going to get annihilated in the ancestrally Democratic regions of Eastern Kentucky, though he will get at least Jim Gray level numbers (and probably more) in Jefferson and Fayette Counties. That will not be enough to save him though.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2019, 03:53:13 AM »
Very slightly less, but with a very different distribution of votes. A lot fewer people are undecided now so I think the potential for the polls to be as wrong as they were in 2015 is less, but I still expect the polling average to be at least 5 points skewed in the Democrats direction (that is, IF we get any more polls).
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2019, 04:17:36 AM »
The real question is: "have more Demosaurs died than there are people who have been alienated by Bevin over the past four years?". It feels like Bevin will win based on past cycles of KY polling and their trajectory, but I can't definitely answer the former question in a state like KY in 2019.

Based on the totality of Bevin's tenure, I'm saying less - but completely unsure.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2019, 06:05:13 AM »
Quote from: TrendsareReal on October 29, 2019, 09:01:17 PM
More. If he’s polling 6-10 ahead now, oof. We know how KY polling is
No poll has said this? Are you seriously trusting Begin' s mind model over the actual polling we have?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2019, 07:59:10 AM »
There's no reason to believe he'll beat his 2015 margin, much less win outright.
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Xing
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2019, 10:51:55 AM »
I'll be #bold and say more.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2019, 10:55:12 AM »
This race seems hard to predict. For now, I think he wins by the same as in 2015.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2019, 11:32:59 AM »

That's not that bold. Kentucky has gotten even more red since 2015, and Trump's hypercharging polarization.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2019, 11:36:54 AM »
He’ll win by more than Trump because of polarization.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2019, 11:38:41 AM »
A bit less but still a comfortable win.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2019, 11:49:02 AM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on October 30, 2019, 11:36:54 AM
He’ll win by more than Trump because of polarization.

Are you channeling me?
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Xing
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« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2019, 12:34:08 PM »
Quote from: SnowLabrador on October 30, 2019, 11:32:59 AM

That's not that bold. Kentucky has gotten even more red since 2015, and Trump's hypercharging polarization.

According to the poll in this thread it is.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2019, 01:21:36 PM »
It's a possibility, but it's unlikely. Probably a 25% probability he does better than two years ago
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2019, 02:41:21 PM »
Quote from: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on October 30, 2019, 06:05:13 AM
Quote from: TrendsareReal on October 29, 2019, 09:01:17 PM
More. If he’s polling 6-10 ahead now, oof. We know how KY polling is
No poll has said this? Are you seriously trusting Bevin' s mind model over the actual polling we have?

Since this is Kentucky polling which routinely overestimates Dems by double digits, yes.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2019, 03:24:46 PM »
53-45 loss for Beshear
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IceSpear
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« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2019, 05:33:37 PM »
Quote from: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on October 30, 2019, 06:05:13 AM
Quote from: TrendsareReal on October 29, 2019, 09:01:17 PM
More. If he’s polling 6-10 ahead now, oof. We know how KY polling is
No poll has said this? Are you seriously trusting Begin' s mind model over the actual polling we have?

Well, Bevin's mind model was certainly more accurate than any poll was in 2015. In fact, my guess is that his mind model actually overestimated the Democrats, lol.
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