UK General Election Prediction Thread

[Arkansas Yankee]

Election Calculus sets out that the Poll of Polls as of 10/25/19 gives the Torres a majority of 76 with 363 seats, Labour with 186 seats, the Liberal Dems with 31, Scottish National Party with 48, the Greens with 1, PlaidC with 3, DUP with 9, Sinn Fein with 7.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

As of of now I will take that as my prediction.

The Political Betting Blog sets out ten reasons why it is not likely that Corbyn will recover as he did in
2017.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/11/02/labours-fan-club-is-far-too-confident-10-reasons-why-2019-may-not-be-2017-part-2/

1.   Labour is polling is really badly.
2.   Corbyn is record – breakingly unpopular with a net satisfaction rating of -60% In 2017 he was at -35.  Johnson is at +2%
3.   Johnson is not very popular but still has strong lead
4.   The campaign is likely be more dominated by Brexit.  Labour’s position on Brexit question is badly defined and easily mocked
5.   The Tory campaign cannot be as bad as in 2017.  That campaign is widely regarded as the worst in history.
6.   Corbyn is not as good a campaigner as he is given credit for.
7.   The Liberal Democrats will not be talking about sex for 4 weeks
8.   Scottish and Welsh Labour are doing worse than in 2017
9.   Labour is more internally divided than at any point under Corbyn
10.   Labour’s front bench is very weak

At the time of the 2017 election there still was about 2 more years to consider Brexit.  We  have presently completed  2 and ½ years of intense Brexit discussion. The public is tired.  This hung Parliament has created a terrible impression. The public wants the issue settled.  It does not want more discussion.  The EU has made it clear it does not want further discussion.  The public does not want another hung Parliament.

The Tories are the only answer to solve Brexit.
A
In addition Johnson has looked strong in telling Farage to get lost with his demand for that the Brexit Party be given 150 constituencies to run in free of Conservative opposition. The same rejection showed strength in dealing with Trump.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I wonder if the general election could more or less duplicate the current deadlock.

If the Conservatives are the largest party but have no obvious allies to give them a majority, the natural outcome would be for the leader of the second largest party to form a government.

Would Jeremy Corbyn be any more acceptable as the Prime Minister in a new hung Parliament than in the last one? We might easily have the same problem that Corbyn will not receive majority support but that he will block anyone else from forming a government of national unity.

Johnson could then decline to resign, as is the constitutional right of a Prime Minister who does not have a clear majority against him. He could meet Parliament and then it might be that Lib Dem etc. abstentions prevent a motion of no confidence being passed, but without the Lib Dems being willing to support any Johnson legislation the new Parliament would be as much if not more paralyzed than its predecessor.

Hopefully this sequence of events can be avoided, but it would involve MPs changing their behaviour in the new term.

To avoid the turmoil you have described I predict large enough numbers of  Brexiteers will vote vote Conservative so a majority party will complete Brexit.  In addition a fair number of Conservative Remainers will vote Conservative out of fear of Corbyn.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I think there will be heavy geographic sorting between the Labour North and Lib Dem south, and the Tory seat share is being overestimated. I would be unsurprised if the Lib Dems clear 40% of the vote in London, and take a majority of seats there. If I had to guess what partiament would be, I'd go with:

Conservative: 257
Labour: 236
Lib Dem: 82
SNP: 50
DUP: 10
Sinn Fein: 7
Plaid Cymru: 4
Brexit: 3
Green: 1

In terms of the percentage vote, I'd speculate:
Conservative: 31.4%
Labour: 29.3%
Lib Dem: 22.6%
Brexit: 8.7%
SNP: 3.4%
...


This would pretty clearly lead to a Lab-Lib-SNP Coalition, which is probably the best thing Britain can hope for.

You believe that with current polls showing the three leader satisfaction rates of Johnson +2, Swinson
-12, Farage -22, and Corbyn -60.  That +2 for Johnson is the best for any leader since 2017 that

1.   the Conservatives will lose 51 seats
2.   Labour only loses 7
3.   the Liberal Democrats gain 61

I think you are just picking numbers out of the air. 

You dream of the Liberal Democrats skyrocketing to 40% in London.   Election Calculus is predicting the following numbers for London

                     2019                                2017         
      Conservatives 29.5%                   33.1%
      Labour  34.2%                               54.5%
      Lib Dem 21.2%                                8.8%
      Brexit/UKIP 7.8%                             1.3%
      Green       5.5%.                                1.8%
      Other.       1.8%                                   0.5%
 
Do you also release 40.7% of voting Londoners voted for Brexit

Where are the Liberal Democrats to get the extra 18.8%.
 
80% of Conservatives are satisfied with Johnson.  9% are dissatisfied.  11% do not know

Labour is 46% - 49%  - 5% concerning Corbyn

47% of all voters think Johnson has done a good job handling Brexit.  45% think he has done a bad job.
84% of Conservatives approved.

Corbyn’s rating for handling Brexit is 11% good and 79% bad.  Labour voters are divided on Corbyn 37% good and 52% bad.

40% of the vote for the Liberal Dems is a real leap requiring the absolute collapse of the Labour Party.  I wish that would happen.  It would end the the threat of Labour to Britain.   But unfortunately it is not going to happen. 

I think it best for Britain to leave an EU


     


                                                     

[Arkansas Yankee]

You look foolish to so openly mix predictions and desires.

Were six weeks out from the  poll and the campaigns have not even started. If you are making a prediction now, some chunk of any prediction will be based on hope and desire.

The thread is a prediction thread.

I think  the Political Betting Blog reference gives a reasonable basis for the hope.

I think Farage  could blow things up.  It is duty of his party to cqontrol him.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Electoral Calculus with the Brexit stand down reduces the Tory loses in Scotland to 2, leaving them with 11.   It is predicting Scottish Labour’s worst run in a 100 year with the retention of only Edinburgh South.

[Arkansas Yankee]

ORYXSLAYER MY $64,000 question for you is:  How do the Lib Dems ever catch fire?

Without proportional representation I do not truly see how the Lib Dems ever catch fire.

FPP systems are set up to discourage third parties.

Also party loyalty runs very deep.  I was a never Trumper until I considered the prospect of Hillary as President   My wife had preceded me and pulled me along.   

[Arkansas Yankee]

Are you serious?   As of today the polling averages show that the Tories are a bit less than 1% (actually .72%) from reaching the 43.43% they attained in 2017.  Some polls show them receiving between 45 to 47%.  The same averages show that Labour is running 9% behind its 41.02% received in 2017. Some show it receiving 30% or less.

In spite of that, do you truly believe that the Tories are going to run further behind its 2017
share than Labour? If you really do, I think you need to explain how you reach this conclusion.

I understand the argument that Labor will close the gap.   But I think you are a little over exuberant in your estimation.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Well it is approaching 7 p.m.   One poll I read pointed out that a disproportionate number of undecided were Labour Leavers.  I am going to stick my neck out.  I am going to predict these Leavers are going to give the Tories an unexpectedly large majority closing in on 360 to 370 seats.  They want Brexit completed. They do not want the uncertainty and mess of a hung Parliament  that was clearly revealed in October.

I may provide a list of seats later this evening.

The popular vote
   Tories 45%
    Labour 32%
   Lib Dem 12%
    Brexit.    3%
    Green.    3%
     SNP.       3.5%
     Plaid.        .5
      Other.     1%

This prediction has a calming effect on me.  It meets my hopes.  If I am wrong, it is no skin off my back.  It will be Britain which will suffer with a hung Parliament and Corbyn messing things up.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I’ll regret this, but underwhelming CON majority of 328 seats.

I take it you are pro Tory.  Cheer up.  It is going to be good evening.