UK General Election Prediction Thread

[RGM2609]

No idea what I am doing and will defo come back to this, but:

CONSERVATIVE - 337 seats
LABOUR - 208 seats
LIB DEMS - 30 seats
SNP - 50 seats
GREENS - 1 seat
BREXIT - 1 seat
PLAID - 4 seats

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Almost nothing about this election is predictable at this stage? We have very little idea of what it will look like in any sense; other than that it won't look like the last one.

Not even sure we can count on that. Soul crushing though it may be to contemplate, a near identical seat split (315/260/35/15/other) is very much possible.

Actually that's true, yes. Quite plausible - as plausible as anything else at this stage. Of course the distribution of votes would be different, but...

[Serenity Now]

Almost nothing about this election is predictable at this stage? We have very little idea of what it will look like in any sense; other than that it won't look like the last one.

Quite, the only thing I'm sure about is that the result will come as a 'big surprise' to most people but it's anyone's guess as to which form this could take. The last 'predictable' national election I can remember is the 2010 general election and that's probably only with the benefit of hindsight.

[Serenity Now]

Just in case this hasn't been posted yet, here's a fun tool for this kind of thing:

http://principalfish.co.uk/electionmaps/?map=prediction

If, like me, you're not a supporter of the Conservative party you should probably to avoid the 'nowcast' if you've been having a good day until this point. If you are though, I'd also caution that the resulting pleasure you may experience potentially makes it NSFW content.

[CumbrianLefty]

Almost nothing about this election is predictable at this stage? We have very little idea of what it will look like in any sense; other than that it won't look like the last one.

Quite, the only thing I'm sure about is that the result will come as a 'big surprise' to most people but it's anyone's guess as to which form this could take. The last 'predictable' national election I can remember is the 2010 general election and that's probably only with the benefit of hindsight.

2010, where many if not most people forecast an outright Tory majority - not to mention the wild swings in public opinion during the campaign?

I think you must have meant 2005

[Serenity Now]

Almost nothing about this election is predictable at this stage? We have very little idea of what it will look like in any sense; other than that it won't look like the last one.

Quite, the only thing I'm sure about is that the result will come as a 'big surprise' to most people but it's anyone's guess as to which form this could take. The last 'predictable' national election I can remember is the 2010 general election and that's probably only with the benefit of hindsight.

2010, where many if not most people forecast an outright Tory majority - not to mention the wild swings in public opinion during the campaign?

I think you must have meant 2005

At the time I was thoroughly convinced (despite everything that was going on in the run-up) that there would be a hung Parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party, and that David Cameron would somehow become PM. However, I admit that was really vague and not really a 'prediction' as such

But yes, 2005 was definitely more predictable (at the national but not constituency level).

[Serenity Now]

To be honest whenever people ask me for a prediction I tend to go with 'hung Parliament' partly to hedge my bets and partly to be annoying and express my displeasure for political predictions.

In keeping with that spirit, I've gone with 'Conservatives largest party' in this poll for now.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I think there will be heavy geographic sorting between the Labour North and Lib Dem south, and the Tory seat share is being overestimated. I would be unsurprised if the Lib Dems clear 40% of the vote in London, and take a majority of seats there. If I had to guess what partiament would be, I'd go with:

Conservative: 257
Labour: 236
Lib Dem: 82
SNP: 50
DUP: 10
Sinn Fein: 7
Plaid Cymru: 4
Brexit: 3
Green: 1

In terms of the percentage vote, I'd speculate:
Conservative: 31.4%
Labour: 29.3%
Lib Dem: 22.6%
Brexit: 8.7%
SNP: 3.4%
...


This would pretty clearly lead to a Lab-Lib-SNP Coalition, which is probably the best thing Britain can hope for.

[Walmart_shopper]

Just in case this hasn't been posted yet, here's a fun tool for this kind of thing:

http://principalfish.co.uk/electionmaps/?map=prediction

If, like me, you're not a supporter of the Conservative party you should probably to avoid the 'nowcast' if you've been having a good day until this point. If you are though, I'd also caution that the resulting pleasure you may experience potentially makes it NSFW content.

Their "nowcast" is literally the worst election predictiom I have ever seen. It's like Tory Brexiteer electoral cosplay, and bears virtually no relationship with reality.

[Epaminondas]

An overlooked factor is a possible 3 seat pickup by SDLP in NI, in
- Foyle (very likely)
- South Down (likely, if 3 point swing from Sinn Féin)
- Belfast South (possible, if 2 point swing swing from DUP)

Numbers here.

Contingent of Sinn Féin & DUP losing ground after their high water mark of 2017, these 3 seats would be very pro-Remain and necessitate a higher Tory threshhold.

[cp]

Don't forget Belfast North. Sinn Féin has gained ground in that seat every election for 2 decades.

Also, seeing Nigel Dodds lose his seat would be Greek drama levels of irony.

[ObserverIE]

An overlooked factor is a possible 3 seat pickup by SDLP in NI, in
- Foyle (very likely)
- Down South (likely, if 3 point swing from Sinn Féin)
- Belfast South (possible, if 2 point swing swing from DUP)

Numbers here.

Contingent of Sinn Féin & DUP losing ground after their high water mark of 2017, these 3 seats would be very pro-Remain and necessitate a higher Tory threshhold.

I can't see the SDLP regaining South Down, but Foyle looks a possibility and South Belfast looks likely to be gained by either SDLP or Alliance.

On the other hand, Fermanagh South Tyrone is a possibility for a UUP gain, and whatever about the new UUP leader's position on Brexit, the local candidate may have other ideas.

[Oryxslayer]

An overlooked factor is a possible 3 seat pickup by SDLP in NI, in
- Foyle (very likely)
- Down South (likely, if 3 point swing from Sinn Féin)
- Belfast South (possible, if 2 point swing swing from DUP)

Numbers here.

Contingent of Sinn Féin & DUP losing ground after their high water mark of 2017, these 3 seats would be very pro-Remain and necessitate a higher Tory threshhold.

Don't forget Belfast North. Sinn Féin has gained ground in that seat every election for 2 decades.

Also, seeing Nigel Dodds lose his seat would be Greek drama levels of irony.

Northern Ireland is going to be a proper mess this year...but when is it not? Here's an analysis from a northern Irishman from another forum:

Anyway, as regards Northern Ireland one thing I'm quite interested in is how the overall vote goes. In 2017 the DUP and Sinn Fein surged well out in front - Sinn Fein finished on 238,915 (+62,683) and the DUP on 292,316 (+108,056). The SDLP mostly stood still on 95,419 (-4,390), Alliance likewise on 64,553 (+2,997), while the UUP's dropped like a stone to 83,280 (-31,655).

Both the DUP and Sinn Fein ran excellent campaigns that time around. Sinn Fein were able to take advantage of the recent collapse of the Assembly, the DUP's blocking of an Irish Language Act, the simplicity of the "Equality, Respect, Integrity" message, anger about Brexit and the sea change that was their phenomenal performance in the Assembly Election three months prior to ratchet up nationalist turnout in a way that hadn't been seen in some years. Sinn Fein's success was also the DUP's greatest campaigning tool. Sinn Fein's success wasn't just a political rival doing well, it was an existential threat. In March 2017 Sinn Fein reduced the gap between them and the DUP from the ten seats and and forty thousand votes it had been a year before to one seat and one thousand first preferences. It gave confidence to nationalism, but also sparked a rally round the flag effect in unionism that the DUP took advantage of to ruinous effect. While Sinn Fein's voters had previously stayed at home on election day the DUP's were swept up from across the board - some were from new turnout, some from minor unionist parties (between them in 2015 UKIP and the TUV got some thirty five thousand votes - in 2017 the former stood no candidates, the latter only one, who got three thousand), and a solid chunk from the UUP, who were themselves coming off a wretched Assembly election that had resulted in their leader stepping down.

Now things are a bit less rosy for them. Northern Ireland has been without a government for over one thousand days due primarily to the fact that these two parties can't get around a table and agree something between the two of them. For the DUP there are a litany of other problems - dodgy dealings like Wee Ian's Sri Lankan getaways, the drip drip of RHI (and Sam McBride's comprehensive retelling of it in Burned, which has sold like hotcakes), the fact that most of the money they crowed about from their deal with the Tories hasn't actually appeared, the Brexit related bind in which they find themselves, and the fact that Sinn Fein themselves aren't so scary. The momentum they had in 2017 has faded a little. Gerry Adams and his Radical Republican Agenda are gone, replaced by Mary Lou and Michelle who are both just a bit crap really. They're also coming off a dispiriting electoral performance and poor polling down south, and their abstentionist policy is coming under renewed pressure after two years where nationalism has abdicated representation of Northern Ireland in London to the DUP, and when seven Sinn Fein MPs could have made more of a difference than any nationalists in the House of Commons in the last century. That puts them in a bind, but it also makes them a less effective bogeyman for the DUP to use to rile up their own base.

The last couple of elections we've had locally have indicated (with the usual provisos about how it's a mug's game extrapolating local/European results to a general election) that there isn't quite so much momentum behind either party as there was in 2017. In the locals in May the DUP did see their first preference vote increase overall (144,928 to 163,615 first preferences) but that was fuelled almost entirely by the collapse of smaller parties (the PUP, TUV and UKIP got twenty councillors and fifty thousand votes in 2014, that fell to nine and twenty three thousand this time around). Sinn Fein meanwhile saw a slight dip in their first preferences overall (six thousand or so, give or take), which'll be a concern given they'd have been hoping for a decent increase if any of that 2017 momentum was sticking around. Both parties also saw their vote drop in European elections in June - the DUP's by six thousand to 124,991, Sinn Fein's by 33,000 to 126,951 - both due to falling turnout and the astonishing Alliance result (more on that later).

As for the other parties the SDLP have stood up reasonably well. In 2017 as noted above they stood still, and actually saw their vote go up in two of the three seats they held (Foyle and Belfast South - South Down was the odd one out but Ritchie was still only a couple of hundred votes off her 2015 total). There have been slight drops in their vote (in the Euros it went from 81,594 to 78,589, the locals 85,237 to 81,419). I'd expect that to stay broadly the same this time around, perhaps a slight uptick with a good campaign.

The UUP will be hoping to undo the damage of the past few years with Aiken's new strategy. The European elections were a particular blow, where they lost a seat they've held since the European Parliament's inception to Alliance and their vote collapsed from 83,438 to 53,052. They held up reasonably well on a local level (101,385 to 95,320), but that was oveshadowed by the loss of 13 seats. Their new confrontational policy sees them actually properly coming out against the DUP for the first time in a while, a sharp contrast to 2017 (where they stood aside for the DUP in Belfast North, Belfast West, North Down and Foyle). Actually standing in all eighteen seats will at least give them a few more votes, but it remains to be seen whether their brave stand will be able to undo any of the damage of the last few elections, or indeed whether it'll make things worse (the DUP are already trying to attacking them for helping to surrender "Edward Carson's Seat" in Belfast North to Sinn Fein).

Alliance are the proper wild card here. The last two elections have seen stratospheric increases in the parties vote. The locals in May saw it jump from 41,769 first preferences to 78,052, while the Euros a month later saw it leap from
44,432 to a phenomenal 105,928. If any of the parties could be said to have the momentum with it at the moment it's Alliance, and most of that is focused upon Belfast East and South. However Alliance's vote increases in March weren't restricted to those two seats, and if the Yellow Surge is replicated in December then Alliance could be the spanner in the works for a few races where they've not really figured before - not necessarily to win obviously, but increasing Alliance votes could throw off predictions in a few places (Belfast North and South Antrim are the two ones to immediately come to mind).

The smaller parties aren't going to feature much. UKIP is dead, the TUV seem to have given up on Westminster contests going off last time (though Jim Allister may make another tilt at Ian Og's seat), the PUP aren't a factor, PBP will be second in West Belfast but not likely to be anywhere elsewhere (though a decent PBP run in Foyle could have an effect on the Sinn Fein-SDLP contest), and while the Greens have had a strong local election that wasn't matched by much of a change in their European result, and even in the seats where they do have a strong presence (Belfast East, Belfast South, North Down) it isn't enough of one to do much more than keep a few deposits.

[Epaminondas]

Oryxslayer, could you tell me where you found that interesting quote?

Glad I'm not alone in thinking NI could play a big role in 2019, like it did in 2017.
Isn't it curious that such a small, educated, wind-swept corner of the world, with virtually no natural resources or immigration, would elicit such dark passions and hatred?

SDLP winning in South Down makes would change the margin of power in Westminster by only 1, while SDLP flipping Belfast South would change it by 2.
It's only a mess in the sense that political parties reflect more than transactional choices in NI, they become part of our identity.

I'm considering registering to vote in the North, as I have family in Foyle. Not sure it's worth the (considerable) effort of claiming residence.

[Oryxslayer]

Oryxslayer, could you tell me where you found that interesting quote?

Glad I'm not alone in thinking NI could play a big role in 2019, like it did in 2017.
Isn't it curious that such a small, educated, wind-swept corner of the world, with virtually no natural resources or immigration, would elicit such dark passions and hatred?

SDLP winning in South Down makes would change the margin of power in Westminster by only 1, while SDLP flipping Belfast South would change it by 2.
It's only a mess in the sense that political parties reflect more than transactional choices in NI, they become part of our identity.

I'm considering registering to vote in the North, as I have family in Foyle. Not sure it's worth the (considerable) effort of claiming residence.

General election thread on the alternate history forum.

He's also provided a subsequent analysis on some of the more minors who are standing which can be found here.

If you cannot see the links, then it's because it's on one of the boards blocked to those without an account, I forget which ones have that lock.

Also in a unrelated note, the DUP are standing down in Fermanagh and S Tyrone for the UUP candidate.

[MillennialModerate]

My ideal result would be Labour doing bad enough that Corbyn gets “sacked” as leader, but the Conservatives don’t get a majority or do poor enough where a General election needs to be called long before 2024.

Second to that, for the pure theater of it all I would love to see Nigel Farage win a seat. Imagine him in parliament? That would be unreal to watch

[CumbrianLefty]

My ideal result would be Labour doing bad enough that Corbyn gets “sacked” as leader, but the Conservatives don’t get a majority or do poor enough where a General election needs to be called long before 2024

These things will likely only go together if the LibDems win more seats than at time since the 1920s.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

CON largest party but unable to form a government.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Election Calculus sets out that the Poll of Polls as of 10/25/19 gives the Torres a majority of 76 with 363 seats, Labour with 186 seats, the Liberal Dems with 31, Scottish National Party with 48, the Greens with 1, PlaidC with 3, DUP with 9, Sinn Fein with 7.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

As of of now I will take that as my prediction.

The Political Betting Blog sets out ten reasons why it is not likely that Corbyn will recover as he did in
2017.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/11/02/labours-fan-club-is-far-too-confident-10-reasons-why-2019-may-not-be-2017-part-2/

1.   Labour is polling is really badly.
2.   Corbyn is record – breakingly unpopular with a net satisfaction rating of -60% In 2017 he was at -35.  Johnson is at +2%
3.   Johnson is not very popular but still has strong lead
4.   The campaign is likely be more dominated by Brexit.  Labour’s position on Brexit question is badly defined and easily mocked
5.   The Tory campaign cannot be as bad as in 2017.  That campaign is widely regarded as the worst in history.
6.   Corbyn is not as good a campaigner as he is given credit for.
7.   The Liberal Democrats will not be talking about sex for 4 weeks
8.   Scottish and Welsh Labour are doing worse than in 2017
9.   Labour is more internally divided than at any point under Corbyn
10.   Labour’s front bench is very weak

At the time of the 2017 election there still was about 2 more years to consider Brexit.  We  have presently completed  2 and ½ years of intense Brexit discussion. The public is tired.  This hung Parliament has created a terrible impression. The public wants the issue settled.  It does not want more discussion.  The EU has made it clear it does not want further discussion.  The public does not want another hung Parliament.

The Tories are the only answer to solve Brexit.
A
In addition Johnson has looked strong in telling Farage to get lost with his demand for that the Brexit Party be given 150 constituencies to run in free of Conservative opposition. The same rejection showed strength in dealing with Trump.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I wonder if the general election could more or less duplicate the current deadlock.

If the Conservatives are the largest party but have no obvious allies to give them a majority, the natural outcome would be for the leader of the second largest party to form a government.

Would Jeremy Corbyn be any more acceptable as the Prime Minister in a new hung Parliament than in the last one? We might easily have the same problem that Corbyn will not receive majority support but that he will block anyone else from forming a government of national unity.

Johnson could then decline to resign, as is the constitutional right of a Prime Minister who does not have a clear majority against him. He could meet Parliament and then it might be that Lib Dem etc. abstentions prevent a motion of no confidence being passed, but without the Lib Dems being willing to support any Johnson legislation the new Parliament would be as much if not more paralyzed than its predecessor.

Hopefully this sequence of events can be avoided, but it would involve MPs changing their behaviour in the new term.

To avoid the turmoil you have described I predict large enough numbers of  Brexiteers will vote vote Conservative so a majority party will complete Brexit.  In addition a fair number of Conservative Remainers will vote Conservative out of fear of Corbyn.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I think there will be heavy geographic sorting between the Labour North and Lib Dem south, and the Tory seat share is being overestimated. I would be unsurprised if the Lib Dems clear 40% of the vote in London, and take a majority of seats there. If I had to guess what partiament would be, I'd go with:

Conservative: 257
Labour: 236
Lib Dem: 82
SNP: 50
DUP: 10
Sinn Fein: 7
Plaid Cymru: 4
Brexit: 3
Green: 1

In terms of the percentage vote, I'd speculate:
Conservative: 31.4%
Labour: 29.3%
Lib Dem: 22.6%
Brexit: 8.7%
SNP: 3.4%
...


This would pretty clearly lead to a Lab-Lib-SNP Coalition, which is probably the best thing Britain can hope for.

You believe that with current polls showing the three leader satisfaction rates of Johnson +2, Swinson
-12, Farage -22, and Corbyn -60.  That +2 for Johnson is the best for any leader since 2017 that

1.   the Conservatives will lose 51 seats
2.   Labour only loses 7
3.   the Liberal Democrats gain 61

I think you are just picking numbers out of the air. 

You dream of the Liberal Democrats skyrocketing to 40% in London.   Election Calculus is predicting the following numbers for London

                     2019                                2017         
      Conservatives 29.5%                   33.1%
      Labour  34.2%                               54.5%
      Lib Dem 21.2%                                8.8%
      Brexit/UKIP 7.8%                             1.3%
      Green       5.5%.                                1.8%
      Other.       1.8%                                   0.5%
 
Do you also release 40.7% of voting Londoners voted for Brexit

Where are the Liberal Democrats to get the extra 18.8%.
 
80% of Conservatives are satisfied with Johnson.  9% are dissatisfied.  11% do not know

Labour is 46% - 49%  - 5% concerning Corbyn

47% of all voters think Johnson has done a good job handling Brexit.  45% think he has done a bad job.
84% of Conservatives approved.

Corbyn’s rating for handling Brexit is 11% good and 79% bad.  Labour voters are divided on Corbyn 37% good and 52% bad.

40% of the vote for the Liberal Dems is a real leap requiring the absolute collapse of the Labour Party.  I wish that would happen.  It would end the the threat of Labour to Britain.   But unfortunately it is not going to happen. 

I think it best for Britain to leave an EU


     


                                                     

[Epaminondas]

I think it best for Britain to leave an EU

That's the problem when you don't have a clue.
You think the problem will go away when the UK leaves, because you like simple solutions. But it will have only begun.

The UK leaving sets the scene for a decade of renegociations of all the existing treaties under other forms.
Trade agreements? The WTO? Northern Irish border? Gibraltar? Border at Calais?
It's taken 3 YEARS and 2 PMs to deal with ONE piece of legislation (article 50), and that's still not done.

These problems will still be around for a generation, since only EU stability removed the political incentive for politicians to pick at the scabs of history.

[Walmart_shopper]

I think it best for Britain to leave an EU

That's the problem when you don't have a clue.
You think the problem will go away when the UK leaves, because you like simple solutions. But it will have only begun.

The UK leaving sets the scene for a decade of renegociations of all the existing treaties under other forms.
Trade agreements? The WTO? Northern Irish border? Gibraltar? Border at Calais?
It's taken 3 YEARS and 2 PMs to deal with ONE piece of legislation (article 50), and that's still not done.

These problems will still be around for a generation, since only EU stability removed the political incentive for politicians to pick at the scabs of history.

The bare-bones, substance-free intellectual dumpster fire of today's nationalistic populism has absolutely nothing to do with the future, much less building a brighter one. It is mindless flexing--emoting, really--of patriotic ambition. But because it's bare-bones and substance-free it's the scrawny guy flexing absurdly for the snickering girls. And that's Britain today. Parading around as a kind of powerhouse that is being dragged down by Europe when the opposite is so obviously true--without the EU the UK is not only not strong and not a more hopeful place, but it's not even the UK anymore. It's just England, the skinny pale chav who believes that FINALLY we'll Make Essex Great Again without having word-slushing Poles ruining the place. And maybe we'll even win the World Cup.

Meanwhile the world looks on amd snickers. Well done, Brexiteers. Well done.

[Blair]

You look foolish to so openly mix predictions and desires.

[Oryxslayer]

You look foolish to so openly mix predictions and desires.

Were six weeks out from the  poll and the campaigns have not even started. If you are making a prediction now, some chunk of any prediction will be based on hope and desire.