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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 85659 times)
Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1050 on: November 30, 2019, 05:21:10 pm »

Why is it that in two succeeding campaigns, the Tories have lost ground as polling day gets closer?

Because May wasn't a campaigner and Boris has a tendency to be a 'clown'.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1051 on: November 30, 2019, 05:46:47 pm »
« Edited: November 30, 2019, 05:49:48 pm by Oryxslayer »

If you don't like Constituency Polls, look away now.



The Tories lead by 13% when told only Gauke candidate a real shot of defeating them, and 12% when told the Lib-Dems. YouGov rates this seat as Likely Conservative, and this poll conforms to that rating, with the Tories always around 50%, but not by much.



Beaconsfield had a reasonable non-tory base back in 2017. It appears Grieve has bit into the Conservative vote, but not by much. When told the only party with a realistic shot at winning against the Tories was Labour, the margin matched 2017's Tory landslide. When told it was only Grieve with a realistic shot at winning in a 1v1, he still loses, 54%-45%. YouGov rates the seat as Likely Conservative, and Grieve's large voteshare coupled with independent uncertainty justify that rating.



Frankly, I'm not sure why they polled this seat. It's more or less safe Tory, no matter how many Lib-Dems want to return to the good old days. It voted for leave and gave the Tories a majority in 2017.  The Tories lead by 32% and 19% when told only Labour and the Lib-Dems have a realistic shot at winning the seat. YouGov rates the Seat as Safe Tory, and nothing should change that.



This was a Lib-Dem target not that long ago, and it's one of the few constituencies we actually have two constituency polls of. Last poll the Lib-Dems were within striking distance of Labour, that's all gone now. Shows just how much constituency polls can vary because of their small voter pool, and it also shows what happens when the Lib-Dems pull their targeted resources and their voters scatter. When told there are  only two realistic parties: Labour and the Tories, Labour leads by 52% to 44%. When told it is only the Lib-Dems and the Tories, The Lib-Dems  only lead by 44% to 43%, since labour keeps a hold on 10% of the vote. YouGov rates the seat as Likely Labour, and I see no reason to change that because the  Lib-Dem base seems happy to cast Red ballots now that the  party has no chance.

Now for the big one:



When told that only Labour and the Conservative's have a chance of winning, Raab wins in a landslide. When told that it's a Lib-Dem verses Conservative race with no other threats, it's a 48%-48% tie. Even though this is an uncertain constituency poll, this confirms Raad has royally screwed up. The Lib-Dems were right to target this seat and it looks like they are got a  real race on their hand. Raab's personal problems make him an ideal target for the Lib-Dems. I think the Lab-Con numbers here also are  important, since they show that Corbyn is worse  of a fit for the seat than Raab. YouGov rates this as likely Tory, but I get the feeling from everything going on here that this is going to be one of the seats YouGov and other models miss because of how the Lib-Dems targete their campaign resources.
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adma
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« Reply #1052 on: November 30, 2019, 07:00:32 pm »

Why is it that in two succeeding campaigns, the Tories have lost ground as polling day gets closer?

Because May wasn't a campaigner and Boris has a tendency to be a 'clown'.

And Labour has this odd tendency to return to the mean, or some approximation thereof.  (Scotland's 2015 paradigm shift excepted.)
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1053 on: November 30, 2019, 07:30:19 pm »
« Edited: November 30, 2019, 07:33:43 pm by CumbrianLeftie »

Maybe the YouGov poll is actually the most interesting one out of that lot, given their tendency going back almost two years now as Tory-friendly - Labour equalling their highest rating since the launch of Change UK (remember them?) and the second lowest YouGov lead since Johnson became PM.

As for Opinium - lol. Literally nobody - including in Tory HQ - actually believes they are ahead 46-31.
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President Pericles
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« Reply #1054 on: November 30, 2019, 09:55:30 pm »

I agree Opinium is highly unlikely to be right, but a caveat is that with recent polling errors, a pro-Tory polling error can't be ruled out and that would lead to a Opinium style landslide. In 2015 after all nobody thought that the Tories would win a majority, and in 2017 insiders in both parties thought even to the end that the Tories were headed for an increased majority. The conventional wisdom is not a reliable indicator. Of course this goes the other way too, it is entirely possible that the polls underrate Labour as in 2017 and that, along with potentially a late Labour surge, could cause a hung parliament (the YouGov MRP model makes that seem less likely and is concerning, but that was a snapshot of how things stood last week and even MRP is not error-free).
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #1055 on: November 30, 2019, 11:20:39 pm »

Maybe the YouGov poll is actually the most interesting one out of that lot, given their tendency going back almost two years now as Tory-friendly - Labour equalling their highest rating since the launch of Change UK (remember them?) and the second lowest YouGov lead since Johnson became PM.

As for Opinium - lol. Literally nobody - including in Tory HQ - actually believes they are ahead 46-31.
You are probably mostly correct.
But is it possible the other pollsters are over herding to 2017 results?  Is it possible they might over compensentate for tactical voting?

Because a pollster notifies the polled person with the tactical choice, does not mean all the voters really get the notice.  It also does not mean all of the possible shifters will actually shift.

And finally there may be no reliable way to gage shifting Leavers, who may be shifting in greater numbers than in 2017.

Letís wait till 12/13 to judge the pollsters.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1056 on: December 01, 2019, 12:25:14 am »

Maybe the YouGov poll is actually the most interesting one out of that lot, given their tendency going back almost two years now as Tory-friendly - Labour equalling their highest rating since the launch of Change UK (remember them?) and the second lowest YouGov lead since Johnson became PM.

As for Opinium - lol. Literally nobody - including in Tory HQ - actually believes they are ahead 46-31.
You are probably mostly correct.
But is it possible the other pollsters are over herding to 2017 results?  Is it possible they might over compensentate for tactical voting?

Because a pollster notifies the polled person with the tactical choice, does not mean all the voters really get the notice.  It also does not mean all of the possible shifters will actually shift.

And finally there may be no reliable way to gage shifting Leavers, who may be shifting in greater numbers than in 2017.

Letís wait till 12/13 to judge the pollsters.

Yes, the big worry is that pollsters have overcorrected since 2017 (as pollsters tend to do when their previous house effect was off) and BoJo is on track for an even bigger majority than it seems thanks to previous nonvoters. Hell, their previous overcorrectiong from when the pollsters missed 2015 was part of the reason why Corbyn's surge was totally off the radar. The issue with this line of thought though is that the MRP poll seems to suggest that overcorrection is going on to a slight degree, but it's main effect is the solidification of already expected Tory flips, rather than padding an already large margin. But yes, the best play as I always say, is to watch the tracking average models and see what 10 days bring.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #1057 on: December 01, 2019, 02:11:42 am »

I wouldnít be shocked to see the Lib Dems underperform popular vote polling while exceeding the number of predicted seat wins at this point. Something like 11% with 26 seats would not surprise me at this point.
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jfern
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« Reply #1058 on: December 01, 2019, 02:15:37 am »

Lib Dems are 13 in every recent poll. Labour is 31-34. But the Conservatives are 39-46, a much wider range.
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cp
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« Reply #1059 on: December 01, 2019, 03:57:39 am »

Lib Dems are 13 in every recent poll. Labour is 31-34. But the Conservatives are 39-46, a much wider range.

I wouldnít be shocked to see the Lib Dems underperform popular vote polling while exceeding the number of predicted seat wins at this point. Something like 11% with 26 seats would not surprise me at this point.

I suspect this will be the case. To what extent it occurs may decide the outcome of the election (i.e. Tory majority or not). Mounting evidence suggests substantial numbers of voters in the SE are either not voting for the Tories this time and/or tactically supporting Lab/Lib as the best chance to defeat the local Tory candidate.

On the subject of polling that Oryx brought up, it occurred to me last night that we have to control for at least two different types of error when assessing how much a polling firm, or the industry more generally, might be indicating something inaccurate. The first error has to do with how polling firms measure a person's propensity to vote. Whether a person is 1/10 likely to vote on e-day, 5/10, or 10/10 affects how polling firms weight their samples and, hence, how their top line numbers turn out. This is what was behind the 2017 GE and 2016 referendum polling error. Most firms assumed lower propensity, Labour/Leave leaning voters wouldn't turn out, but they did.

The second error has to do with a person's choice of vote, i.e. the likelihood that a person, of any though usually high propensity to vote, will choose Party X instead of Party Y or Z. This type of polling error is what was behind the missed calls in 2015 and 1992. Lots of people who said they could vote Tory but also Labour or Lib Dem decided, largely at the last minute, to back Tories in large enough numbers to deliver them a majority that the polls indicated wasn't likely.

So, which error is more likely to be at work in this election? Because 2017 saw a failure to accurately measure propensity to vote, it's reasonable to assume pollsters have adjusted for this. That doesn't mean they've *fixed* it, mind you, just that they've made a new set of assumptions to determine voter propensity. High rates of voter registration, greater interest/investment in the election, and changing demographics are all confounding factors, too. I'll also note that in virtually every survey taken in the past two months, the pre-weighting results for Lab/Tory has been a tie.

On the other hand, how likely is it that pollsters will be embarrassed because a crucial bloc of voters change their minds at the last minute? Obviously, we won't know until the votes start getting counted, but there's evidence to suggest there may be potential for this. If one is to believe the constituency polls (yes, yes, I know) for Portsmouth South, Esher & Walton, Beaconsfield, Warwick, and slew of Northern Labour held seats , there are substantial numbers of voters willing to shift their support. This indicates the potential for further sudden changes that pollsters might not be equipped to anticipate or detect. There's also the matter of the Tories draining  their well of Brexit/UKIP voters but Labour still having lots of potential Lib Dem voters to squeeze in the next 10 days.

All told, I don't know which of these errors is more likely to manifest. But then, neither do the pollsters.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1060 on: December 01, 2019, 05:15:26 am »

Maybe the YouGov poll is actually the most interesting one out of that lot, given their tendency going back almost two years now as Tory-friendly - Labour equalling their highest rating since the launch of Change UK (remember them?) and the second lowest YouGov lead since Johnson became PM.

As for Opinium - lol. Literally nobody - including in Tory HQ - actually believes they are ahead 46-31.
You are probably mostly correct.
But is it possible the other pollsters are over herding to 2017 results?  Is it possible they might over compensentate for tactical voting?

Because a pollster notifies the polled person with the tactical choice, does not mean all the voters really get the notice.  It also does not mean all of the possible shifters will actually shift.

And finally there may be no reliable way to gage shifting Leavers, who may be shifting in greater numbers than in 2017.

Letís wait till 12/13 to judge the pollsters.

Yes, the big worry is that pollsters have overcorrected since 2017 (as pollsters tend to do when their previous house effect was off) and BoJo is on track for an even bigger majority than it seems thanks to previous nonvoters. Hell, their previous overcorrectiong from when the pollsters missed 2015 was part of the reason why Corbyn's surge was totally off the radar. The issue with this line of thought though is that the MRP poll seems to suggest that overcorrection is going on to a slight degree, but it's main effect is the solidification of already expected Tory flips, rather than padding an already large margin. But yes, the best play as I always say, is to watch the tracking average models and see what 10 days bring.

As I recall the MRP weighted awfully heavily for Brexit views, thus the extreme result in the North and Midlands. But the assumption that Brexit matters to voters more than it actually does may be why Labour is being underestimated and why they seem to be surging. Voters in Labour-Leave constituencies aren't going to suddenly flock to the party of Jacob "you should have just left the building" Rees-Mogg because of Brexit, even though the prevailing narrative is that surely they'll do exactly that. It's a really dumb narrative, honestly. Red Labour Leave voters don't become Tories, they become simply Red Labour Leave voters. That's why the decision of the Brexit Party to leave those constituencies uncontestes is by no means an automatic gamechanger.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #1061 on: December 01, 2019, 06:44:33 am »

IT CAN NOW BE SAID EMPHATICALLY THE 2019 BRITISH ELECTION IS NOT GOING PLAY OUT IN THE SAME MANNER AS THE 2017 ELECTION.  LABOUR IS NOT GOING TO CREEP UP IN VOTING STRENGTH TO CREATE  A HUNG PARLIAMENT.

THE ONLY QUESTION REMAINING IS THE SIZE OF TORY MAJORITY.  THE PROOF FOLLOWS:

The Delta Poll in todayís Telegraph has the following significant information:
1.   Tories rising 2% from itís midweek poll to 45%.
2.   Labour rises 2% to 32%.
3.   The Tory lead remains at +13%. 
4.   The Lib. Dems drop 1% to 15%. 
5.   Brexit remains at 3%
6.   The Tories take the votes of 70% of Leavers and 22% of Remainers
7.   Labour takes 15% of Leavers and 45% of Remainers.
8.   Lib. Dems take 5% of Leavers and 26% of Remainers
9.   Brexit takes 7% of Leavers and 0% of Remainers.
10.   This pol takes the Opinium poll showing a Tory lead of 15% with out of outlier status.
11.   Since 11/12/19 there have been 12 polls showing the Tories getting at least 43% of the vote.

The polls url is http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Deltapoll-MoS191130.pdf
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cp
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« Reply #1062 on: December 01, 2019, 07:40:22 am »

Maybe the YouGov poll is actually the most interesting one out of that lot, given their tendency going back almost two years now as Tory-friendly - Labour equalling their highest rating since the launch of Change UK (remember them?) and the second lowest YouGov lead since Johnson became PM.

As for Opinium - lol. Literally nobody - including in Tory HQ - actually believes they are ahead 46-31.
You are probably mostly correct.
But is it possible the other pollsters are over herding to 2017 results?  Is it possible they might over compensentate for tactical voting?

Because a pollster notifies the polled person with the tactical choice, does not mean all the voters really get the notice.  It also does not mean all of the possible shifters will actually shift.

And finally there may be no reliable way to gage shifting Leavers, who may be shifting in greater numbers than in 2017.

Letís wait till 12/13 to judge the pollsters.

Yes, the big worry is that pollsters have overcorrected since 2017 (as pollsters tend to do when their previous house effect was off) and BoJo is on track for an even bigger majority than it seems thanks to previous nonvoters. Hell, their previous overcorrectiong from when the pollsters missed 2015 was part of the reason why Corbyn's surge was totally off the radar. The issue with this line of thought though is that the MRP poll seems to suggest that overcorrection is going on to a slight degree, but it's main effect is the solidification of already expected Tory flips, rather than padding an already large margin. But yes, the best play as I always say, is to watch the tracking average models and see what 10 days bring.

As I recall the MRP weighted awfully heavily for Brexit views, thus the extreme result in the North and Midlands. But the assumption that Brexit matters to voters more than it actually does may be why Labour is being underestimated and why they seem to be surging. Voters in Labour-Leave constituencies aren't going to suddenly flock to the party of Jacob "you should have just left the building" Rees-Mogg because of Brexit, even though the prevailing narrative is that surely they'll do exactly that. It's a really dumb narrative, honestly. Red Labour Leave voters don't become Tories, they become simply Red Labour Leave voters. That's why the decision of the Brexit Party to leave those constituencies uncontestes is by no means an automatic gamechanger.

Should that prove to be the case, the likely result will be a Labour government. It also ought to (but probably won't) prompt a great deal of reflection among commentators and psephologists. The ur-narrative of the past 3 1/2 years has focused on this nearly-mythic group.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1063 on: December 01, 2019, 08:07:09 am »

Yes, it is *possible* the polls could be currently understating the Tories and Opinium turn out correct. Everything is possible, including Liverpool FC not ending their 30 year title drought from their present league position.

<prays>

But seriously, the reason for my scepticism is that almost nobody *on the ground* thinks that is the case. In contrast to 2015, when Tories genuinely thought the polls showing Labour slightly ahead were wrong (and said so)
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1064 on: December 01, 2019, 08:24:22 am »

Yes, it is *possible* the polls could be currently understating the Tories and Opinium turn out correct. Everything is possible, including Liverpool FC not ending their 30 year title drought from their present league position.

<prays>

But seriously, the reason for my scepticism is that almost nobody *on the ground* thinks that is the case. In contrast to 2015, when Tories genuinely thought the polls showing Labour slightly ahead were wrong (and said so)

This is very true. One important caveat is that people on the ground are now much (rightly) more hesitant to say that they know what's going on, and those who are still willing to opine tend not to be those who are best informed. Anybody making definitive statements at this point in time has forfeited the right to be taken seriously.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #1065 on: December 01, 2019, 10:03:32 am »

Wtf is Labour sending Richard Burgon to a tv-debate? Do they want to lose? If this was sports you'd suspect matchfixing.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1066 on: December 01, 2019, 10:24:33 am »

Well, thinking (and I mean *thinking*) about it, maybe it has been judged his legal background might help given how Friday's horrible events are likely to take up a significant part of the discussion?

But yeah, its a bit of a strange one alright.....
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DaWN
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« Reply #1067 on: December 01, 2019, 10:43:04 am »

Richard Burgon is the perfect representation of today's Labour Party, I'm not sure why anyone is surprised.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1068 on: December 01, 2019, 10:44:09 am »

In the judgement of people like you despise it, yes.

Not anyone else.
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Cassius
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« Reply #1069 on: December 01, 2019, 02:28:24 pm »

ĎJeremy will be an honest broker, not a stockbroker like Nigelí.

Ho ho... ho.

Laughter came there none.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1070 on: December 01, 2019, 03:43:30 pm »
« Edited: December 01, 2019, 03:49:39 pm by Oryxslayer »

I made my ten days out, long-spelled-out prediction in the other thread.
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DaWN
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« Reply #1071 on: December 01, 2019, 03:50:07 pm »

The Lib Dems have actually been fairly stable for the last two weeks or so at 15% or a few points south of that - I think the Labour increase might be more due to undecideds and possible a few soft Tories swinging their way. Whether that will be enough for 2017-redux who's to say. Mostly this time I think the Lib Dems do have a higher floor than last time though because of Brexit, and it looks like they might have reached it. 'Might' definitely being the operative word there.

A quick thought on the polling atm (from the general discussion thread)
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cp
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« Reply #1072 on: December 01, 2019, 04:11:51 pm »

The Lib Dems have actually been fairly stable for the last two weeks or so at 15% or a few points south of that - I think the Labour increase might be more due to undecideds and possible a few soft Tories swinging their way. Whether that will be enough for 2017-redux who's to say. Mostly this time I think the Lib Dems do have a higher floor than last time though because of Brexit, and it looks like they might have reached it. 'Might' definitely being the operative word there.

A quick thought on the polling atm (from the general discussion thread)

I'm not sure the top line numbers are the best way to read the crucial dynamics at work. Lib Dem fade over the past few weeks might have been remainy types switching to Labour OR it could be dissatisfied red Tories getting scared of Corbyn and boosting the Tories. Similarly, Labour's slower rise compared with 2017 could be because they're picking up remainy votes in the south but losing leavey votes in the north - some of the local polling would seem to corroborate that.

Something worth keeping in mind whatever the case: there are a *lot* of wavering Lib Dem/Labour voters, and a relatively large number of true undecideds. Depending on how they shift by next Thursday, the Tory lead could be double digits or completely gone.
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cp
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« Reply #1073 on: December 01, 2019, 05:21:49 pm »

Bit of random fun/observation: In a fit of masochism I decided to look up the forum thread from the 2017 election, focusing on the last 10 days before the vote, to see what useful trends I might be able to discern in the debate/commentary people had. Here's what I found ...

1. Everyone agreed May had run the worst campaign in living memory, but a good few people were still bleating about her being a 'strong' leader. A true testament to the power of cognitive dissonance.

2. Corbyn hating was, if anything, more intense than it has been this year. Seriously, I was shocked at how vitriolic the rhetoric was; I sort of assumed it had gained volume and intensity over the past 2 years.

3. The YouGov poll that projected a Tory minority was very much an outlier and not taken very seriously by anyone posting. Even when a couple of other polls published subsequently (YouGov came out about a week before polling day) showed the Tory lead down to single digits - and, in one case, a -1 to Labour - most people dismissed them.

4. Relatedly, if there was an overall tone to the final days of the 2017 race's commentary on here it could be summed up as "The Tories really stepped in it, but they're still going to win a majority." I couldn't find a single prediction that didn't have the Tories winning 330+ seats.

5. There was a much greater number of different posters contributing to the thread at the time. This was not to the thread's benefit.
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DaWN
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« Reply #1074 on: December 01, 2019, 05:23:39 pm »

2. Corbyn hating was, if anything, more intense than it has been this year. Seriously, I was shocked at how vitriolic the rhetoric was; I sort of assumed it had gained volume and intensity over the past 2 years.

Even though I'm here now? 😁
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