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January 21, 2021, 04:53:49 PM

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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 94323 times)
CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1025 on: November 29, 2019, 11:25:43 AM »
« edited: November 30, 2019, 07:32:50 PM by CumbrianLeftie »

Could have been worse, it appears.

EDIT: posted before it became clear there were two fatalities Sad
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1026 on: November 29, 2019, 01:46:56 PM »
« Edited: November 29, 2019, 01:58:25 PM by Oryxslayer »

BoJo's warning Trump not to make brash statements about the election when he comes to the Nato summit. BoJo, after all, doesn't want to be seen as Trump's mini-me: the minority of trump approvers in the UK are likely already voting Con/Brexit/DUP.

There's also a 7 way debate in Cardiff tonight, but BoJo, Corbyn, and Farage are sending replacements. I get the feeling that this debate may have a lot of security related questions after what happened today.
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Cinemark
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« Reply #1027 on: November 29, 2019, 03:07:18 PM »

This is probably more out of ignorance than anything else, but I was under the impression the Tories were pretty climate friendly when compared to other center right and right wing parties in the west?
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1028 on: November 29, 2019, 03:26:36 PM »

This is probably more out of ignorance than anything else, but I was under the impression the Tories were pretty climate friendly when compared to other center right and right wing parties in the west?

Well, they have cut back some rail electrification programmes lately.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1029 on: November 29, 2019, 03:38:20 PM »
« Edited: November 29, 2019, 03:55:25 PM by Oryxslayer »

This is probably more out of ignorance than anything else, but I was under the impression the Tories were pretty climate friendly when compared to other center right and right wing parties in the west?

Depends on who you are comparing the  Conservatives to. If you are comparing them to other deep-blue Right-wingers around the globe, then the Tories are more ecologically friendly than the rest. This is because they have historically faced Green party and Lib-Dem assaults in their southern shires based on ecological issues. It's mostly a bottom up effect from various council-level challenges which influences the MPs positions, even though their seats are safe. Sometimes this is more local in focus (don't cut down the trees on 'x' street, preserve the Greenbelt culture of our town), and sometimes this is more Global (recycling bins and programs to reduce  litter, insulating homes to lower electricity usage). However, if you are comparing to other UK parties, the Tories are the most ecologically right-wing party that actually has a chance and winning seats in the main 632.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1030 on: November 29, 2019, 04:59:25 PM »

There's also a 7 way debate in Cardiff tonight, but BoJo, Corbyn, and Farage are sending replacements. I get the feeling that this debate may have a lot of security related questions after what happened today.

There was some reference to it, but it far from swamped the debate.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1031 on: November 29, 2019, 05:01:48 PM »

The Tories are generally the party of the motorist - they've kept fuel duty frozen whereas it went up sharply under Labour; they tend to be the keenest supporters of road upgrades and they're usually the least interested party in public transport.

We don't have a lot of carbon-intensive heavy industry, but campaigns against onshore wind turbines and solar farms are usually Conservative front groups and they were the only people who were even vaguely keen on fracking.

They don't go in for much in the way of global warning denial (although there is a bit of that on their fringes) but they're certainly the option of choice for those who prioritise things remaining as they are over climate mitigation efforts.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1032 on: November 29, 2019, 05:43:09 PM »

Campaigning has been suspended because of the terrorist attack.

Also, the first of the weekend poll glut has arrived. Panelbase: Con 42, Lab 34, LDem 13, BP 4, Greens 3

Plus two to Labour, plus one for the Greens and Brexit Party, minus one for the LibDems. Implied swing of 3pts to Con since 2017. Fieldwork on the 27th and 28th.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1033 on: November 30, 2019, 02:05:09 AM »


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Away, haul away, we'll haul away, Joe!
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« Reply #1034 on: November 30, 2019, 03:08:50 AM »

What in the world is the Mr. Burns map? The European elections?
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God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams
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« Reply #1035 on: November 30, 2019, 03:14:54 AM »


Yes.
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cp
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« Reply #1036 on: November 30, 2019, 12:51:47 PM »



Labour closing the gap with accelerating speed. Still outside the margin of error for a tie, though.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #1037 on: November 30, 2019, 02:08:45 PM »

Hm. This one shows a different story.


Also noticable is that even with the BMG one there seems to be on the face of it no direct Cons to Lab transfers. But that is impossible to tell by only the headline figures of course.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #1038 on: November 30, 2019, 02:42:23 PM »

I mean those polls seem consistent with conservatives in the low forties and Labour within a couple points of 33.

Where is the Green Party in the second poll, btw?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1039 on: November 30, 2019, 04:35:35 PM »

Mods, can we please kick out the troll?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1040 on: November 30, 2019, 04:39:56 PM »

The biggest difference between ComRes and BMG is probably the polling dates. BMG polled Thursday/Friday, ComRes Wednesday/Thursday. Last week we had on bombshells news story each day, the kind of story that could have reoriented the campaign if it was given time to stew. But, we didn't, and instead the voting opinions could very well differ drastically depending on which stories are captured. I suspect we may see more variation tomorrow between those polled early in the week, those polled later, and those polled all 5 days.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1041 on: November 30, 2019, 04:48:42 PM »

Hm. This one shows a different story.


ComRes put out two polls a week at present rather than one - those figures are compared with the midweek poll. Compared with their last weekend poll there's no shift in the lead. In general they have been (a bit bizarrely given the reputation they used to have) one of the more stable pollsters this time round.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1042 on: November 30, 2019, 04:50:07 PM »

The biggest difference between ComRes and BMG is probably the polling dates.

Yes, the fact that the main commissioners of polling during an election are the Sunday papers is... problematic. Note that Panelbase polls at the same time as the Sunday glut but releases on Saturday. Doesn't mean their findings are older.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1043 on: November 30, 2019, 05:01:36 PM »
« Edited: November 30, 2019, 05:04:38 PM by Oryxslayer »



Another weekend poll. Their one of the  outliers  with the Tories that high though.



I don't think this would change the seat-by-seat model that much if it was the results of their next 100K polled respondents.
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GoTfan
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« Reply #1044 on: November 30, 2019, 05:19:14 PM »

Why is it that in two succeeding campaigns, the Tories have lost ground as polling day gets closer?
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1045 on: November 30, 2019, 05:21:10 PM »

Why is it that in two succeeding campaigns, the Tories have lost ground as polling day gets closer?

Because May wasn't a campaigner and Boris has a tendency to be a 'clown'.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1046 on: November 30, 2019, 05:46:47 PM »
« Edited: November 30, 2019, 05:49:48 PM by Oryxslayer »

If you don't like Constituency Polls, look away now.



The Tories lead by 13% when told only Gauke candidate a real shot of defeating them, and 12% when told the Lib-Dems. YouGov rates this seat as Likely Conservative, and this poll conforms to that rating, with the Tories always around 50%, but not by much.



Beaconsfield had a reasonable non-tory base back in 2017. It appears Grieve has bit into the Conservative vote, but not by much. When told the only party with a realistic shot at winning against the Tories was Labour, the margin matched 2017's Tory landslide. When told it was only Grieve with a realistic shot at winning in a 1v1, he still loses, 54%-45%. YouGov rates the seat as Likely Conservative, and Grieve's large voteshare coupled with independent uncertainty justify that rating.



Frankly, I'm not sure why they polled this seat. It's more or less safe Tory, no matter how many Lib-Dems want to return to the good old days. It voted for leave and gave the Tories a majority in 2017.  The Tories lead by 32% and 19% when told only Labour and the Lib-Dems have a realistic shot at winning the seat. YouGov rates the Seat as Safe Tory, and nothing should change that.



This was a Lib-Dem target not that long ago, and it's one of the few constituencies we actually have two constituency polls of. Last poll the Lib-Dems were within striking distance of Labour, that's all gone now. Shows just how much constituency polls can vary because of their small voter pool, and it also shows what happens when the Lib-Dems pull their targeted resources and their voters scatter. When told there are  only two realistic parties: Labour and the Tories, Labour leads by 52% to 44%. When told it is only the Lib-Dems and the Tories, The Lib-Dems  only lead by 44% to 43%, since labour keeps a hold on 10% of the vote. YouGov rates the seat as Likely Labour, and I see no reason to change that because the  Lib-Dem base seems happy to cast Red ballots now that the  party has no chance.

Now for the big one:



When told that only Labour and the Conservative's have a chance of winning, Raab wins in a landslide. When told that it's a Lib-Dem verses Conservative race with no other threats, it's a 48%-48% tie. Even though this is an uncertain constituency poll, this confirms Raad has royally screwed up. The Lib-Dems were right to target this seat and it looks like they are got a  real race on their hand. Raab's personal problems make him an ideal target for the Lib-Dems. I think the Lab-Con numbers here also are  important, since they show that Corbyn is worse  of a fit for the seat than Raab. YouGov rates this as likely Tory, but I get the feeling from everything going on here that this is going to be one of the seats YouGov and other models miss because of how the Lib-Dems targete their campaign resources.
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adma
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« Reply #1047 on: November 30, 2019, 07:00:32 PM »

Why is it that in two succeeding campaigns, the Tories have lost ground as polling day gets closer?

Because May wasn't a campaigner and Boris has a tendency to be a 'clown'.

And Labour has this odd tendency to return to the mean, or some approximation thereof.  (Scotland's 2015 paradigm shift excepted.)
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1048 on: November 30, 2019, 07:30:19 PM »
« Edited: November 30, 2019, 07:33:43 PM by CumbrianLeftie »

Maybe the YouGov poll is actually the most interesting one out of that lot, given their tendency going back almost two years now as Tory-friendly - Labour equalling their highest rating since the launch of Change UK (remember them?) and the second lowest YouGov lead since Johnson became PM.

As for Opinium - lol. Literally nobody - including in Tory HQ - actually believes they are ahead 46-31.
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Pericles
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« Reply #1049 on: November 30, 2019, 09:55:30 PM »

I agree Opinium is highly unlikely to be right, but a caveat is that with recent polling errors, a pro-Tory polling error can't be ruled out and that would lead to a Opinium style landslide. In 2015 after all nobody thought that the Tories would win a majority, and in 2017 insiders in both parties thought even to the end that the Tories were headed for an increased majority. The conventional wisdom is not a reliable indicator. Of course this goes the other way too, it is entirely possible that the polls underrate Labour as in 2017 and that, along with potentially a late Labour surge, could cause a hung parliament (the YouGov MRP model makes that seem less likely and is concerning, but that was a snapshot of how things stood last week and even MRP is not error-free).
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