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  Talk Elections
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 85570 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #650 on: November 19, 2019, 07:09:34 am »

An interesting detail from ICM's poll published yesterday (Con 42, Lab 32, LDem 13, BP 5, SNP 3, Greens 3, Others 2) is that they observe that where the Brexit Party is standing, their vote is (at the moment) holding up quite well.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #651 on: November 19, 2019, 08:34:53 am »

Incidentally, has anyone ever (tried to) poll overseas voters?

Obviously, there is no way you'd ever know how they vote seeing as they just get subsumed into home constituencies - but I was reading the other day that, as a result of various efforts, the number of overseas registered voters has jumped from  about 50'000 to 300'000 in the last 4/5 years - and that's almost starting to be a somewhat marginally relevant voting bloc.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #652 on: November 19, 2019, 08:57:02 am »
« Edited: November 19, 2019, 09:02:27 am by Oryxslayer »



I guess the Lib-Dems and SNP had a reason to be pissy about the first debate being 1v1...but they are going to BBC's in three days!

Also this just seems like way too many debates for any particular one to have a chance at standing out.
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afleitch
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« Reply #653 on: November 19, 2019, 10:03:41 am »

There's risk in the first debate; viewers might not like any of them. I loathe both; I'm hoping they eat each other Smiley
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #654 on: November 19, 2019, 10:13:06 am »

There's risk in the first debate; viewers might not like any of them. I loathe both; I'm hoping they eat each other Smiley
Corbyn is too skinny to eat, more meat on Johnson.
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afleitch
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« Reply #655 on: November 19, 2019, 10:56:21 am »

Big dump of leaks from Aaron Banks' twitter today.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #656 on: November 19, 2019, 11:07:32 am »

Incidentally, has anyone ever (tried to) poll overseas voters?

Obviously, there is no way you'd ever know how they vote seeing as they just get subsumed into home constituencies - but I was reading the other day that, as a result of various efforts, the number of overseas registered voters has jumped from  about 50'000 to 300'000 in the last 4/5 years - and that's almost starting to be a somewhat marginally relevant voting bloc.

I have not seen a poll, but my guess is that most lean Conservative. While there is a very vocal anti-brexit crowd among the Central European Diaspora, they are outnumbered by a far larger number of British Citizens living in Australia, Canada and the US, who could be expected to be rather more sympathetic to the whole Brexit Empire Commonwealth nostalgia. And the largest group of Expats on the Continent are in retiree-heavy Spain, and that is a highly pro-tory age group. Anecdotal, of course, but I seem to remember an Interview that the BBC did with them before the Referendum and many of them seemed to be highly supportive of leave, seemingly oblivious to the consequences it would have for them personally.

Perhaps this is the Reason why the Conservatives have traditionally been supportive of demands to allow votes for life for British living abroad, while the Labour Party has been opposed (despite wanting to extend the franchise to other groups); they suspect that overseas voters lean conservative.
Or perhaps it could be rather a more old fashioned tory idea of an ethnic bond of all British people, and allowing overseas Citizens to vote is a a way of 'preserving their connection to the motherland'.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #657 on: November 19, 2019, 12:24:03 pm »

Incidentally, has anyone ever (tried to) poll overseas voters?

Obviously, there is no way you'd ever know how they vote seeing as they just get subsumed into home constituencies - but I was reading the other day that, as a result of various efforts, the number of overseas registered voters has jumped from  about 50'000 to 300'000 in the last 4/5 years - and that's almost starting to be a somewhat marginally relevant voting bloc.

I have not seen a poll, but my guess is that most lean Conservative. While there is a very vocal anti-brexit crowd among the Central European Diaspora, they are outnumbered by a far larger number of British Citizens living in Australia, Canada and the US, who could be expected to be rather more sympathetic to the whole Brexit Empire Commonwealth nostalgia. And the largest group of Expats on the Continent are in retiree-heavy Spain, and that is a highly pro-tory age group. Anecdotal, of course, but I seem to remember an Interview that the BBC did with them before the Referendum and many of them seemed to be highly supportive of leave, seemingly oblivious to the consequences it would have for them personally.

Perhaps this is the Reason why the Conservatives have traditionally been supportive of demands to allow votes for life for British living abroad, while the Labour Party has been opposed (despite wanting to extend the franchise to other groups); they suspect that overseas voters lean conservative.
Or perhaps it could be rather a more old fashioned tory idea of an ethnic bond of all British people, and allowing overseas Citizens to vote is a a way of 'preserving their connection to the motherland'.

Yeah, that makes intuitive sense - but my thinking on that is that; firstly, 300k is only a small proportion of the British diaspora as a whole - and without knowing whether registered voters are more concentrated among certain communities than others it's hard to be able to tell beyond that.

Adding to that, I believe a fair few of the spanish-retirees still maintain UK residencies and the right to vote at home, and I would imagine that the US/Aus/Canada communities probably combine a lot of people who have been in those countries for decades and therefore lost the right to vote - and that the newcomers, owing to immigration restrictions of the 21st century, will likely be overwhelmingly highly educated professionals. Ie the class who tend to be broadly "liberal" ideologically and allegedly decamping from the Tories en masse. (and I imagine there is a solid - immigrant who naturalised British and has now returned to their country of origin demographic too; particularly famously in parts of Pakistan).
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #658 on: November 19, 2019, 01:26:32 pm »

Jermey Corbyn is so bad that he makes Ilhan Omar look good compared to him. Corbyn needs to lose in a landslide
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #659 on: November 19, 2019, 01:29:29 pm »

Jermey Corbyn is so bad that he makes Ilhan Omar look good compared to him. Corbyn needs to lose in a landslide

Wow, thank you for the insight, Old School Republican, very cool!

Can we please deport people who know nothing about British politics from the thread?
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(CT) The Free North
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« Reply #660 on: November 19, 2019, 01:30:25 pm »

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-poll-kantar-idUKKBN1XT21T?taid=5dd4329d9007110001d2ca4b&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #661 on: November 19, 2019, 01:35:38 pm »

The latest YouGov - for some time one of the more favourable pollsters for the Tories - has them down 3 to 42 and Labour up 2 to 30 (their highest with this poll since the spring) Taken very recently too.

Just a blip? Possibly, but tonight's debate may have some bearing on that (I'm not one of those who thinks they can never change anything - and tbh am surprised at those who do, given Cleggmania wasn't *that* long ago)

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jaichind
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« Reply #662 on: November 19, 2019, 01:38:20 pm »

I am surprised Theresa May is running again.  Last few PMs seems to have retired from politics after they left the PM spot.
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DaWN
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« Reply #663 on: November 19, 2019, 02:04:21 pm »

tonight's debate may have some bearing on that (I'm not one of those who thinks they can never change anything - and tbh am surprised at those who do, given Cleggmania wasn't *that* long ago)

Cleggmania didn't change anything though. It gave Clegg a momentary blip but the overall effect on the election was actually fairly minimal. And that's when he was the clear winner over Brown and Cameron, whereas both Johnson and Corbyn are so bad at debating I'm not sure there can be a clear winner. And even if there is a decisive winner, there's still three weeks until the election, plenty of time for other shiny things to make people forget the debate even happened.

I am surprised Theresa May is running again.  Last few PMs seems to have retired from politics after they left the PM spot.

As I said in my predictions, her becoming the female Ted Heath would be such a perfect end to her story.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #664 on: November 19, 2019, 02:07:51 pm »

Wait, there's a debate tonight? You all have my deepest sympathies Sad
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DaWN
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« Reply #665 on: November 19, 2019, 02:11:37 pm »

Wait, there's a debate tonight? You all have my deepest sympathies Sad

Don't worry, I'll be joining most of the country in avoiding watching it or any part of it like the plague. Frankly I'd rather have a root canal than watch Boris and Corbyn debate.
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kongress
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« Reply #666 on: November 19, 2019, 02:21:31 pm »

tonight's debate may have some bearing on that (I'm not one of those who thinks they can never change anything - and tbh am surprised at those who do, given Cleggmania wasn't *that* long ago)

Cleggmania didn't change anything though. It gave Clegg a momentary blip but the overall effect on the election was actually fairly minimal. And that's when he was the clear winner over Brown and Cameron, whereas both Johnson and Corbyn are so bad at debating I'm not sure there can be a clear winner. And even if there is a decisive winner, there's still three weeks until the election, plenty of time for other shiny things to make people forget the debate even happened.

I am surprised Theresa May is running again.  Last few PMs seems to have retired from politics after they left the PM spot.

As I said in my predictions, her becoming the female Ted Heath would be such a perfect end to her story.

So this implies that there will be diddling accusations after her death?
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DaWN
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« Reply #667 on: November 19, 2019, 02:26:54 pm »

tonight's debate may have some bearing on that (I'm not one of those who thinks they can never change anything - and tbh am surprised at those who do, given Cleggmania wasn't *that* long ago)

Cleggmania didn't change anything though. It gave Clegg a momentary blip but the overall effect on the election was actually fairly minimal. And that's when he was the clear winner over Brown and Cameron, whereas both Johnson and Corbyn are so bad at debating I'm not sure there can be a clear winner. And even if there is a decisive winner, there's still three weeks until the election, plenty of time for other shiny things to make people forget the debate even happened.

I am surprised Theresa May is running again.  Last few PMs seems to have retired from politics after they left the PM spot.

As I said in my predictions, her becoming the female Ted Heath would be such a perfect end to her story.

So this implies that there will be diddling accusations after her death?

I meant sulking on the backbenches for 25 years lol. I certainly wouldn't accuse the ex-Prime Minister of such things (happy, any lawyers reading?)
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Antonio V
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« Reply #668 on: November 19, 2019, 02:47:10 pm »

Is the debate being streamed online somewhere?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #669 on: November 19, 2019, 02:49:52 pm »

Remember to treat any post-debate snap-polls with extreme caution. They are worse than regular polls, and regular UK polling is as we have all said here, iffy. Now, I don't think anyone can "win" this debate, but this just needs to be stated for cautions sake.
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afleitch
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« Reply #670 on: November 19, 2019, 02:51:07 pm »

Is the debate being streamed online somewhere?

Purgatory.

BBC and Sky streams are usually easier to find online; best hit YouTube and see what you can find.
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jaichind
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« Reply #671 on: November 19, 2019, 02:55:59 pm »

It seems Yougov will do a snap poll after the debate.  Of course it is not clear who will watch this debate.
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DaWN
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« Reply #672 on: November 19, 2019, 02:58:03 pm »

It seems Yougov will do a snap poll after the debate.  Of course it is not clear if anyone will watch this debate.

FTFY
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afleitch
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« Reply #673 on: November 19, 2019, 03:28:36 pm »

Stream:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9kEB5pqWpJw
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Grand Inquisitor Lumine
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« Reply #674 on: November 19, 2019, 03:30:37 pm »

Tried to watch the debate, but couldn't, it seemed absurdly cringeworthy.

Also, Boris is absolutely incompetent as a debater. From what I saw before moving onto something else, Corbyn - hopelessly mediocre as he is - seemed to be doing a lot better.
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