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March 08, 2021, 07:46:45 PM

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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 95814 times)
Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #425 on: November 11, 2019, 11:29:44 AM »

Good!  The Brexit stand down should take a lot of the pressure of Tories in the southeast and southwest.

Sorry folks there is not going to be a hung Parliament. 

The antisemitic charges will put a damper on any Corbyn recovery this time. 
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cp
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« Reply #426 on: November 11, 2019, 11:58:28 AM »
« Edited: November 11, 2019, 12:01:41 PM by cp »

New poll from ComRes:

Tory: 36%
Labour: 29%
Lib Dem: 17%
Brexit: 11%

Given today's events, I think this tweet is helpful for interpretation:



A straight factoring in on that ratio would give something like 40/31/17. To be clear: doing this would be extremely simplistic and any conclusions you would like to draw from such a calculation would be faulty.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #427 on: November 11, 2019, 01:48:14 PM »

As a political anomaly - a center left person who would be a Anti-Corbyn/Pro-Blair Labour/Leave voter in the UK and one who would have SUPPORTED Farage. I now find him to be a fraud. Not standing AND not contesting the whole nation is weak. How are you going to accomplish “Change Politics for Good” when you only send a message to half the establishment. He could’ve done great things for the UK by putting both the Torres and Labour on notice - instead he chickened out.
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Cassius
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« Reply #428 on: November 11, 2019, 01:57:37 PM »

As a political anomaly - a center left person who would be a Anti-Corbyn/Pro-Blair Labour/Leave voter in the UK and one who would have SUPPORTED Farage. I now find him to be a fraud. Not standing AND not contesting the whole nation is weak. How are you going to accomplish “Change Politics for Good” when you only send a message to half the establishment. He could’ve done great things for the UK by putting both the Torres and Labour on notice - instead he chickened out.

I think Nigel Farage is largely in politics for the craic and to keep himself in beer these days, so I wouldn’t have placed much faith in him to begin with. On the other hand, deciding to stand down against the Tories is probably among the more principled acts Farage has committed in recent years, given that it doesn’t do much for his career but nonetheless helps the Tories a bit in the election, making it more likely the UK will leave the EU in one form or another (which is supposed to be Farage’s main aim in politics).
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God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams
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« Reply #429 on: November 11, 2019, 02:44:33 PM »

Yeah, Farage has probably sunk his party's chance of having any relevance in the future. Good riddance.

This probably marginally helps Tories, but I can see it triggering consolidation of the Remain vote toward Labour (which we're already seeing some evidence for) so let's see where things go from there.
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DaWN
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« Reply #430 on: November 11, 2019, 02:49:53 PM »

I can see it triggering consolidation of the Remain vote toward Labour (which we're already seeing some evidence for) so let's see where things go from there.

Why do you think this? Labour, despite what Corbynites would have us believe, still don't have any credibility on Brexit. The Lib Dem polling slide after the calling of the election was only a few points, was always inevitable once a campaign began and has since stalled.

For what feels like the 400th time, Labour are not a remain party

Besides, the Lib Dems will happily use this in every election leaflet and broadcast from now until December 12th in order to bring Tory remainers over to their side, so if anything, their share of the remainer vote will go up because of it.

Fwiw, I don't think this will change much except at the margins in a few Brexity & Lab held marginals where the Lib Dems were already mostly irrelevant.
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God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams
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« Reply #431 on: November 11, 2019, 02:54:45 PM »

Anyone who's paying attention can see that, in most constituencies, a vote for Labour is their best bet to stop Brexit. That doesn't mean that's how they'll vote, of course. This is the last election I'd ever hazard a prediction for at this point. But I'm at least hoping they will.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #432 on: November 11, 2019, 03:02:12 PM »

Best way to have stopped Brexit would have been to vote Labour in 2015. That was the most important election of our times, everything else just follows the ghastly course it set. Oh well.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #433 on: November 11, 2019, 03:13:01 PM »

BXP support has been on a pretty clear downward trend anyway and it's likely they'd have been below 5% by polling day anyway

They might plausibly have seen the campaign as a chance to change that. But it appears not.

Could this actually cause a few more UKIP candidates to appear in Tory held seats?

Remember it's £500 a seat just on the deposit.
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DaWN
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« Reply #434 on: November 11, 2019, 03:14:00 PM »

For what its worth, I think people seriously underestimate how badly Labour have pissed off much of their remainer voting bloc from 2017 and to assume that they will flock back between now and election day at the sight of Boris is a dubious assumption. The problem for the Lib Dems of course is that these people are, electorally speaking, mainly irrelevant, being concentrated in safe Labour seats where the majorities will no doubt fall by a decent amount but nothing like enough to put the seats in danger (a good example is my own seat), but Labour thinking that the same arguments they used in 2017 are going to work this time after the last 2 and a half years has the potential to end badly for them.

Having said that,

Best way to have stopped Brexit would have been to vote Labour in 2015. That was the most important election of our times, everything else just follows the ghastly course it set. Oh well.

This is the correct answer
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Pericles
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« Reply #435 on: November 11, 2019, 03:14:17 PM »

I can see it triggering consolidation of the Remain vote toward Labour (which we're already seeing some evidence for) so let's see where things go from there.

Why do you think this? Labour, despite what Corbynites would have us believe, still don't have any credibility on Brexit. The Lib Dem polling slide after the calling of the election was only a few points, was always inevitable once a campaign began and has since stalled.

For what feels like the 400th time, Labour are not a remain party

Besides, the Lib Dems will happily use this in every election leaflet and broadcast from now until December 12th in order to bring Tory remainers over to their side, so if anything, their share of the remainer vote will go up because of it.

Fwiw, I don't think this will change much except at the margins in a few Brexity & Lab held marginals where the Lib Dems were already mostly irrelevant.

Labour is offering a second referendum though. With Labour you get either a soft Brexit or no Brexit at all, both are clearly superior to if Boris wins a majority which would guarantee a hard Brexit. Labour isn't perfect but they're clearly better than the Tories on Brexit (and overall too).
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DaWN
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« Reply #436 on: November 11, 2019, 03:18:04 PM »

I can see it triggering consolidation of the Remain vote toward Labour (which we're already seeing some evidence for) so let's see where things go from there.

Why do you think this? Labour, despite what Corbynites would have us believe, still don't have any credibility on Brexit. The Lib Dem polling slide after the calling of the election was only a few points, was always inevitable once a campaign began and has since stalled.

For what feels like the 400th time, Labour are not a remain party

Besides, the Lib Dems will happily use this in every election leaflet and broadcast from now until December 12th in order to bring Tory remainers over to their side, so if anything, their share of the remainer vote will go up because of it.

Fwiw, I don't think this will change much except at the margins in a few Brexity & Lab held marginals where the Lib Dems were already mostly irrelevant.

Labour is offering a second referendum though. With Labour you get either a soft Brexit or no Brexit at all, both are clearly superior to if Boris wins a majority which would guarantee a hard Brexit. Labour isn't perfect but they're clearly better than the Tories on Brexit (and overall too).

I can't speak for anyone else but I don't trust that Labour will give the second referendum that they offer and even if I did, its too little too late. I also don't believe a Corbyn Brexit would be any softer than a Boris one. Again, this is just me and I'd probably advise against extrapolating this to a wider voting bloc - I imagine there are a near-infinite range of opinions on this among remainer voters.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #437 on: November 11, 2019, 03:20:59 PM »

Best way to have stopped Brexit would have been to vote Labour in 2015. That was the most important election of our times, everything else just follows the ghastly course it set. Oh well.

I did. I campaigned on the doorstep too, on a trip in Thurrock where the TV actor Shaun Dooley was one of the people bussed in to the marginal seat.

Labour came third. Then Ed Miliband decided to throw open the leadership ballot to every Johnny and Jenny come lately that could pony up a sum less than what I spent on my lunch today instead of limiting it to actual members.

So we got Corbyn. Who managed to make multiple unforced errors in week one. Since then Labour supporters have spent a huge amount of time moaning about media coverage and very little working out a viable way of dealing with it.

Then there's been antisemitism. I quit partly because it was taking longer than a murder case from arrest to conviction does to deal with Ken Livingstone and things have gotten worse since then.

A Conservative majority is a realistic possibility here and to be honest, a heavy loss might be what Labour needs to bring some sense back into its politics. I'd rather have five more years of Tory rule if it gets us ten of Labour after that than vice versa.
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jaichind
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« Reply #438 on: November 11, 2019, 03:50:04 PM »

I can see it triggering consolidation of the Remain vote toward Labour (which we're already seeing some evidence for) so let's see where things go from there.

Why do you think this? Labour, despite what Corbynites would have us believe, still don't have any credibility on Brexit. The Lib Dem polling slide after the calling of the election was only a few points, was always inevitable once a campaign began and has since stalled.

For what feels like the 400th time, Labour are not a remain party

Besides, the Lib Dems will happily use this in every election leaflet and broadcast from now until December 12th in order to bring Tory remainers over to their side, so if anything, their share of the remainer vote will go up because of it.

Fwiw, I don't think this will change much except at the margins in a few Brexity & Lab held marginals where the Lib Dems were already mostly irrelevant.

I think this entire Leave/Remain issue is more about identity than what is the technical definition of Leave and Remain. This is why Farage seems to have failed in his attack on Johnson's deal as "Not real Brexit" since very few is really that interested in that dictionary definition.  By the same token I think the LAB position which is of course very vague could end up collecting a lot of Remain voters by the same logic. 
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #439 on: November 11, 2019, 03:51:27 PM »

What I want to know about Labour's position is which passport control queue I'll end up in if I land at Vienna airport.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #440 on: November 11, 2019, 04:07:17 PM »

Best way to have stopped Brexit would have been to vote Labour in 2015. That was the most important election of our times, everything else just follows the ghastly course it set. Oh well.

I did. I campaigned on the doorstep too, on a trip in Thurrock where the TV actor Shaun Dooley was one of the people bussed in to the marginal seat.

Labour came third. Then Ed Miliband decided to throw open the leadership ballot to every Johnny and Jenny come lately that could pony up a sum less than what I spent on my lunch today instead of limiting it to actual members.

So we got Corbyn. Who managed to make multiple unforced errors in week one. Since then Labour supporters have spent a huge amount of time moaning about media coverage and very little working out a viable way of dealing with it.

Then there's been antisemitism. I quit partly because it was taking longer than a murder case from arrest to conviction does to deal with Ken Livingstone and things have gotten worse since then.

A Conservative majority is a realistic possibility here and to be honest, a heavy loss might be what Labour needs to bring some sense back into its politics. I'd rather have five more years of Tory rule if it gets us ten of Labour after that than vice versa.

Not that I'm particularly a fan of Corbyn or anything, but that's kind of a non-sequitur, as "limiting [the 2015 leadership election] to actual members" wouldn't have changed anything; the result certainly would've been narrowed, of course, but Corbyn had already secured 49.5% of the members' vote on the 1st ballot alone, so had it been a members' only election, he would've just won it on the 2nd ballot instead of the 1st, & Labour would still be right where they are today.
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Pericles
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« Reply #441 on: November 11, 2019, 04:26:11 PM »

Best way to have stopped Brexit would have been to vote Labour in 2015. That was the most important election of our times, everything else just follows the ghastly course it set. Oh well.

I did. I campaigned on the doorstep too, on a trip in Thurrock where the TV actor Shaun Dooley was one of the people bussed in to the marginal seat.

Labour came third. Then Ed Miliband decided to throw open the leadership ballot to every Johnny and Jenny come lately that could pony up a sum less than what I spent on my lunch today instead of limiting it to actual members.

So we got Corbyn. Who managed to make multiple unforced errors in week one. Since then Labour supporters have spent a huge amount of time moaning about media coverage and very little working out a viable way of dealing with it.

Then there's been antisemitism. I quit partly because it was taking longer than a murder case from arrest to conviction does to deal with Ken Livingstone and things have gotten worse since then.

A Conservative majority is a realistic possibility here and to be honest, a heavy loss might be what Labour needs to bring some sense back into its politics. I'd rather have five more years of Tory rule if it gets us ten of Labour after that than vice versa.

Not that I'm particularly a fan of Corbyn or anything, but that's kind of a non-sequitur, as "limiting [the 2015 leadership election] to actual members" wouldn't have changed anything; the result certainly would've been narrowed, of course, but Corbyn had already secured 49.5% of the members' vote on the 1st ballot alone, so had it been a members' only election, he would've just won it on the 2nd ballot instead of the 1st, & Labour would still be right where they are today.

I think it is referencing that Labour had an absurdly low membership fee and lots of people joined to vote for Corbyn.
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jaymichaud
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« Reply #442 on: November 11, 2019, 04:35:07 PM »

So the Labor surge is... underwhelming at the moment.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #443 on: November 11, 2019, 04:48:06 PM »

Best way to have stopped Brexit would have been to vote Labour in 2015. That was the most important election of our times, everything else just follows the ghastly course it set. Oh well.

I did. I campaigned on the doorstep too, on a trip in Thurrock where the TV actor Shaun Dooley was one of the people bussed in to the marginal seat.

Labour came third. Then Ed Miliband decided to throw open the leadership ballot to every Johnny and Jenny come lately that could pony up a sum less than what I spent on my lunch today instead of limiting it to actual members.

So we got Corbyn. Who managed to make multiple unforced errors in week one. Since then Labour supporters have spent a huge amount of time moaning about media coverage and very little working out a viable way of dealing with it.

Then there's been antisemitism. I quit partly because it was taking longer than a murder case from arrest to conviction does to deal with Ken Livingstone and things have gotten worse since then.

A Conservative majority is a realistic possibility here and to be honest, a heavy loss might be what Labour needs to bring some sense back into its politics. I'd rather have five more years of Tory rule if it gets us ten of Labour after that than vice versa.

Not that I'm particularly a fan of Corbyn or anything, but that's kind of a non-sequitur, as "limiting [the 2015 leadership election] to actual members" wouldn't have changed anything; the result certainly would've been narrowed, of course, but Corbyn had already secured 49.5% of the members' vote on the 1st ballot alone, so had it been a members' only election, he would've just won it on the 2nd ballot instead of the 1st, & Labour would still be right where they are today.

I think it is referencing that Labour had an absurdly low membership fee and lots of people joined to vote for Corbyn.

No, that would've been the registered £3 supporter category that Miliband introduced, which was separate from the membership.
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afleitch
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« Reply #444 on: November 11, 2019, 05:19:36 PM »

This is from Election Maps UK



This doesn't mean in anyway the same is going to happen again; but Labour are polling the same as they did during the same point in the last campaign and Brexit are only slightly ahead of UKIP (with the expectation that support will collapse) Green are also converging on their last result. For all the talk of Lab-Lib Dem switchers, the Tories are down almost as much as the Lib Dems are up.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #445 on: November 11, 2019, 05:22:06 PM »

BBC reports the Greens are not fielding a candidate against Iain Duncan Smith and endorse Labour in bid to take him  down.
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morgieb
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« Reply #446 on: November 11, 2019, 05:47:17 PM »

This is from Election Maps UK



This doesn't mean in anyway the same is going to happen again; but Labour are polling the same as they did during the same point in the last campaign and Brexit are only slightly ahead of UKIP (with the expectation that support will collapse) Green are also converging on their last result. For all the talk of Lab-Lib Dem switchers, the Tories are down almost as much as the Lib Dems are up.
So by that logic, we can expect the votes on December 12 to be:

Con: 33.7%
Lab: 39.9%
Lib Dem: 13.9%
Brexit: 4.3%
Greens: 2.3%

Dominating!
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #447 on: November 11, 2019, 08:17:50 PM »

One rumor that I have seen going around concerning farage is that he may have financial issues. The party was always fueled by the tory grassroots and so once the Conservatives returned to their commanding position, the money dried up. Those backers that still remain want him to cooperate with the Tories and push them further right, not compromise Brexit for Farage's ego. Which is why the man is begging for the Tories to reach out, and now stepped down in their seats.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #448 on: November 11, 2019, 09:13:02 PM »

For the record, Labour came second in Thurrock in 2015 (as in 2010 and 2017 - all by small margins)

And the solution to what happened then was never for the party to hurtle to the right as the lemming like 4.5% tendency (well represented on here as on other politics discussion boards) demanded. That way lay only SPD or PASOK style oblivion. 

Like it or not, some form of Corbynism (even if moderated and "sanitised" a bit) really *is* the only game in town - almost whatever the result next month. Though the above graph should give those who have already decided that a big Tory win is inevitable some pause.   
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cp
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« Reply #449 on: November 11, 2019, 10:11:40 PM »

I can see it triggering consolidation of the Remain vote toward Labour (which we're already seeing some evidence for) so let's see where things go from there.

Why do you think this? Labour, despite what Corbynites would have us believe, still don't have any credibility on Brexit. The Lib Dem polling slide after the calling of the election was only a few points, was always inevitable once a campaign began and has since stalled.

For what feels like the 400th time, Labour are not a remain party

Besides, the Lib Dems will happily use this in every election leaflet and broadcast from now until December 12th in order to bring Tory remainers over to their side, so if anything, their share of the remainer vote will go up because of it.

Fwiw, I don't think this will change much except at the margins in a few Brexity & Lab held marginals where the Lib Dems were already mostly irrelevant.

Labour is offering a second referendum though. With Labour you get either a soft Brexit or no Brexit at all, both are clearly superior to if Boris wins a majority which would guarantee a hard Brexit. Labour isn't perfect but they're clearly better than the Tories on Brexit (and overall too).

I can't speak for anyone else but I don't trust that Labour will give the second referendum that they offer and even if I did, its too little too late. I also don't believe a Corbyn Brexit would be any softer than a Boris one. Again, this is just me and I'd probably advise against extrapolating this to a wider voting bloc - I imagine there are a near-infinite range of opinions on this among remainer voters.

I've heard this sentiment from a Lib Dem supporter lately and, honestly, it baffles me. Given the agonies Labour has endured internally to get to the policy it has now (which is, for the record, nearly identical to the Lib Dem position from 2017), and given the electoral calculus attached to adopting a pro-Leave position for anyone but the Tories and Brexit/UKIP, what on earth makes a person think Labour would renege on promising a referendum with a Remain option? Whose benefit would it be to? What advantage would it provide?

Add to that, even if a PM Corbyn and his inner circle tried to push  a soft vs hard Brexit referendum through parliament, the PLP would never support it and the membership would go apoplectic. Not holding a referendum at all would just put Corbyn in the same position May and Johnson were in, even if he had a majority (again, PLP is overwhelmingly Remain).

I get that distrusting politicians, and Corbyn in particular, is basically the default position for most voters, but the idea that Corbyn would renege on this policy at this time doesn't hold up to even modest scrutiny.
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