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November 24, 2020, 01:31:04 AM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 92311 times)
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #825 on: November 23, 2019, 09:02:23 AM »

While I think this piece from the Mail is nothing but A+ level spin, I would push back on the idea that constituency polls are useless. A constituency poll is like throwing a dart at a dart board with limited accuracy in regards to results. You should never expect bulls eyes, but no darts will end up incredibly far from that center. They in essence are data points, which work best with other data points and not standing on their own, just like every other poll ever.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #826 on: November 23, 2019, 09:10:48 AM »

Could I just make the point that The. UK. Does. Not. Have. Ridings.

Thanks
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afleitch
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« Reply #827 on: November 23, 2019, 12:52:02 PM »

So there's an expectation of a glut of polls this weekend.

Worth remembering is that all that matters is the direction of travel not the actual individual gaps as such; last weekend saw a widening of the Tory lead after Labour had been closing the gap.

I'm taking a risk here but if Labour don't close the gap even marginally this weekend, it does look difficult for them to 'repeat 2017' which has been the mantra I've heard a lot from activists. The caveat to this is the 'likely to vote' numbers especially for younger voters. They should start to tick up.

But again there's a potential for this to be the election that 2017 'should have been.'
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afleitch
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« Reply #828 on: November 23, 2019, 12:57:48 PM »

And on that front, Opinium have the Tory lead up to 19 points up from 16 points last week.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #829 on: November 23, 2019, 01:17:34 PM »

I think the current betting arounds of around 65% chance of a Tory majority look right, IMHO. Unless Labour manages to pull this back, we'll be facing a Johnson government with a working majority with all that entails.
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afleitch
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« Reply #830 on: November 23, 2019, 01:21:43 PM »

I think the current betting arounds of around 65% chance of a Tory majority look right, IMHO. Unless Labour manages to pull this back, we'll be facing a Johnson government with a working majority with all that entails.

I think if things don't shift to a lead of less than 8%, probably a landslide. Something that sees them through to 2024 and perhaps strong enough to weather 2029.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #831 on: November 23, 2019, 01:26:11 PM »

So far of the weekend glut we have had...

Panelbase: Con 42, Lab 32, LDem 14, BP 3, Greens 3. A change from a 13pt lead to a 10pt one on the week.
YouGov: Con 42, Lab 30, LDem 16, Greens 4, BP 3. No change on a poll they did midweek, but a change from an 18pt lead to a 12pt one on their last weekend poll.
Opinium: Con 47, Lab 28, LDem 12, BP 3. A change from a 16pt lead to a 19pt one on the week.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #832 on: November 23, 2019, 01:28:48 PM »

I think if things don't shift to a lead of less than 8%, probably a landslide. Something that sees them through to 2024 and perhaps strong enough to weather 2029.

If votes were ever somewhat banked, they aren't now. So there's no point worrying about the longer term.
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afleitch
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« Reply #833 on: November 23, 2019, 01:40:38 PM »

I think if things don't shift to a lead of less than 8%, probably a landslide. Something that sees them through to 2024 and perhaps strong enough to weather 2029.

If votes were ever somewhat banked, they aren't now. So there's no point worrying about the longer term.

I think it's based on sizeable majorities insulating governments somewhat of which there's some political theory behind; 1987 helping Major in 1992, 2001 helping Labour in 2005 despite just a 3 point lead (and 2005 making 2010 harder for the Tories). This is the third (quick) election for the incumbent Tories and if Boris walks away with a majority of 100, it's probably not going to become a Labour majority of say 10 in one cycle.
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Blair
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« Reply #834 on: November 23, 2019, 02:07:39 PM »

Survation has completed a poll for the Daily Mail.  It shows 30 northern ridings are set swing to the conservatives:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7716641/Tories-win-30-seats-Labours-northern-heartland.html

Most of Corbynites posting here have maintained that Survation was the best pollster in 2017. Well Survation never produced any polling similar to this in 2017.  I cannot wait to get the cross tabs.

I cannot wait to see how you Corbynites explain away this poll.
    

Why are you talking about a riding?
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #835 on: November 23, 2019, 02:08:53 PM »

That is pretty much what happened in 1964 and 1970 though. Landslides in the elections before that and the incumbent government lost power five years later.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #836 on: November 23, 2019, 02:23:07 PM »

So far of the weekend glut we have had...

Panelbase: Con 42, Lab 32, LDem 14, BP 3, Greens 3. A change from a 13pt lead to a 10pt one on the week.
YouGov: Con 42, Lab 30, LDem 16, Greens 4, BP 3. No change on a poll they did midweek, but a change from an 18pt lead to a 12pt one on their last weekend poll.
Opinium: Con 47, Lab 28, LDem 12, BP 3. A change from a 16pt lead to a 19pt one on the week.

BMG: Con 41, Lab 28, LDem 18, Greens 5, BP 3. A change from an 8pt lead to 13pt point one on the week, but last week's BMG poll made no adjustment for the Brexit Party standing down in Conservative-held constituencies.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #837 on: November 23, 2019, 02:23:50 PM »

Next of the weekend polls:



There are also three London constituency polls similar to what we saw last week, so I'm going to wait for the Guardian to make their post before talking about them.
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DaWN
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« Reply #838 on: November 23, 2019, 02:34:20 PM »

I think its becoming very clear that the pollsters don't have the tiniest bloody idea of what's going on apart from the fact the Tories are in the lead.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #839 on: November 23, 2019, 02:46:22 PM »

I think it's based on sizeable majorities insulating governments somewhat of which there's some political theory behind; 1987 helping Major in 1992, 2001 helping Labour in 2005 despite just a 3 point lead (and 2005 making 2010 harder for the Tories). This is the third (quick) election for the incumbent Tories and if Boris walks away with a majority of 100, it's probably not going to become a Labour majority of say 10 in one cycle.

There's a certain logic to the idea of mass-incumbency bonuses, sure, but I would say that it is more of an occasional tendency than a rule. Three figure majorities melted away at the first challenge in 1964 and 1970, for instance. A long time ago now, a literal lifetime away, yes, but the issue is the operation of this most obviously idiotic of electoral systems rather than direct comparison. And of course one only needs to look at what happened in Scotland in 2015 to see what can happen when the electorate has decisively changed its mind these days: if things turn, they turn. Party affinity and party loyalty at present are also so extremely low now that I wouldn't even be particularly surprised if a genuinely new party were to do randomly very well out of nowhere at some point.
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cp
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« Reply #840 on: November 23, 2019, 03:09:43 PM »

I think it's based on sizeable majorities insulating governments somewhat of which there's some political theory behind; 1987 helping Major in 1992, 2001 helping Labour in 2005 despite just a 3 point lead (and 2005 making 2010 harder for the Tories). This is the third (quick) election for the incumbent Tories and if Boris walks away with a majority of 100, it's probably not going to become a Labour majority of say 10 in one cycle.

There's a certain logic to the idea of mass-incumbency bonuses, sure, but I would say that it is more of an occasional tendency than a rule. Three figure majorities melted away at the first challenge in 1964 and 1970, for instance. A long time ago now, a literal lifetime away, yes, but the issue is the operation of this most obviously idiotic of electoral systems rather than direct comparison. And of course one only needs to look at what happened in Scotland in 2015 to see what can happen when the electorate has decisively changed its mind these days: if things turn, they turn. Party affinity and party loyalty at present are also so extremely low now that I wouldn't even be particularly surprised if a genuinely new party were to do randomly very well out of nowhere at some point.

This is basically the idea behind the model I posted a link to a couple weeks back. It's based on previous election performance, the concept of swing, and leader ratings, and predicted a hung parliament with the Tories losing a handful of seats.

For all the sturm and drang of polling hype, there seems to be a few clear patterns: Tories stable in the low/mid 40s, Labour slowly rising. If those trends continue for the next three weeks a hung parliament is more likely than not.
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afleitch
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« Reply #841 on: November 23, 2019, 03:23:08 PM »

Still no word on whether there will be a Scotland only poll. None so far this campaign (we'd had 5 this time during the last campaign) and Wales is due it's second on Monday.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #842 on: November 23, 2019, 03:33:45 PM »
« Edited: November 23, 2019, 03:37:33 PM by Oryxslayer »

Anyway, The Guardian failed to produce nice charts like last time, so here's the three London Constituency Polls I mentioned. Link to the relevant Guardian piece.


Hendon (Barnet):

Con: 51% (+3)
Lab: 33% (-13)
Lib: 12% (+8)
Grn: 1% (-)

If only Lab/Lib had a change of winning the seat:

Con: 55% / 53%
Lab: 41% / 7%
Lib: 4% / 39%
Grn: 0% / 1%

Cities of London and Westminster:

Con: 39% (-8)
Lib: 33% (+22)
Lab: 26% (-12)
Grn: 1% (-1)

If only Lab/Lib had a change of winning the seat:

Con: 49% / 42%
Lab: 44% / 5%
Lib: 7% / 51%
Grn: 0% / 1%

Chelsea & Fulham:

Con: 48% (-5)
Lib: 25% (+14)
Lab: 24% (-9)

If only Lab/Lib had a change of winning the seat:

Con: 57% / 49%
Lib: 7% / 43%
Lab: 35% / 8%

Obvious disclaimer about constituency polls is obvious. Changes are  with the 2017 results.
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bigic
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« Reply #843 on: November 23, 2019, 05:09:25 PM »



That's pretty bad for the Lib Dems, gaining just 2 seats compared to 2017 despite doubling the level of support.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #844 on: November 23, 2019, 05:18:03 PM »

The Lib Dems have had a real problem of strong support not being translated into seats under FPTP. It's no surprise that they're big electoral reform advocates.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #845 on: November 23, 2019, 05:41:59 PM »

So far of the weekend glut we have had...

Panelbase: Con 42, Lab 32, LDem 14, BP 3, Greens 3. A change from a 13pt lead to a 10pt one on the week.
YouGov: Con 42, Lab 30, LDem 16, Greens 4, BP 3. No change on a poll they did midweek, but a change from an 18pt lead to a 12pt one on their last weekend poll.
Opinium: Con 47, Lab 28, LDem 12, BP 3. A change from a 16pt lead to a 19pt one on the week.

BMG: Con 41, Lab 28, LDem 18, Greens 5, BP 3. A change from an 8pt lead to 13pt point one on the week, but last week's BMG poll made no adjustment for the Brexit Party standing down in Conservative-held constituencies.

Deltapoll: Con 43, Lab 30, LDem 16, BP 3, Others Huh. A change from a 15pt lead to a 13pt one on the week.
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Pericles
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« Reply #846 on: November 23, 2019, 05:45:03 PM »

The Lib Dems have had a real problem of strong support not being translated into seats under FPTP. It's no surprise that they're big electoral reform advocates.

Also seems that they underperform in every campaign recently (2010 is more of a mixed bag though where they overperformed expectations at the start of the campaign while underperforming end of campaign expectations)
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #847 on: November 23, 2019, 05:56:38 PM »

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Cosmopolitanism Will Win
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« Reply #848 on: November 23, 2019, 06:09:04 PM »

Breaking: Wolf Swears he Won't Eat the Sheep This Time
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #849 on: November 23, 2019, 06:11:32 PM »

The Lib Dems have had a real problem of strong support not being translated into seats under FPTP. It's no surprise that they're big electoral reform advocates.

Also seems that they underperform in every campaign recently (2010 is more of a mixed bag though where they overperformed expectations at the start of the campaign while underperforming end of campaign expectations)

LDs have kinda a weird situation. They always underperform their projected vote, because their voters are on average more likely to be white-collar, educated, politically-attuned, and be at least stable in their situation. This leads to a voter base that if presented with a seat where it is obvious the LDs stand no chance, the LD voter will be more likely to cast a red or blue vote depending on his/her opinions. On the other hand, the LDs will outperform the number of seats they should be getting for said percentage. This is because the LD strategy is to narrow in on targets with a greater propensity to flip orange. This often makes LD swing impossible to calculate since they could potentially have a 'latent' voter base in a seat that will be activated by campaign resources. A LD incumbent in this regard is a powerful resource. I personally have the LDs a lot higher in my current 'excel prediction' than most models, because of these historical trends. Mostly this is because Wealthy West London seems poised to be 'activated' and go into strategic voting mode.
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