United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 07:16:34 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 29 30 31 32 33 [34] 35 36 37 38 39 ... 69
Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 135681 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #825 on: November 23, 2019, 01:28:48 PM »

I think if things don't shift to a lead of less than 8%, probably a landslide. Something that sees them through to 2024 and perhaps strong enough to weather 2029.

If votes were ever somewhat banked, they aren't now. So there's no point worrying about the longer term.
Logged
afleitch
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,833


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #826 on: November 23, 2019, 01:40:38 PM »

I think if things don't shift to a lead of less than 8%, probably a landslide. Something that sees them through to 2024 and perhaps strong enough to weather 2029.

If votes were ever somewhat banked, they aren't now. So there's no point worrying about the longer term.

I think it's based on sizeable majorities insulating governments somewhat of which there's some political theory behind; 1987 helping Major in 1992, 2001 helping Labour in 2005 despite just a 3 point lead (and 2005 making 2010 harder for the Tories). This is the third (quick) election for the incumbent Tories and if Boris walks away with a majority of 100, it's probably not going to become a Labour majority of say 10 in one cycle.
Logged
Blair
Blair2015
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,816
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #827 on: November 23, 2019, 02:07:39 PM »

Survation has completed a poll for the Daily Mail.  It shows 30 northern ridings are set swing to the conservatives:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7716641/Tories-win-30-seats-Labours-northern-heartland.html

Most of Corbynites posting here have maintained that Survation was the best pollster in 2017. Well Survation never produced any polling similar to this in 2017.  I cannot wait to get the cross tabs.

I cannot wait to see how you Corbynites explain away this poll.
    

Why are you talking about a riding?
Logged
Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,305
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #828 on: November 23, 2019, 02:08:53 PM »

That is pretty much what happened in 1964 and 1970 though. Landslides in the elections before that and the incumbent government lost power five years later.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #829 on: November 23, 2019, 02:23:07 PM »

So far of the weekend glut we have had...

Panelbase: Con 42, Lab 32, LDem 14, BP 3, Greens 3. A change from a 13pt lead to a 10pt one on the week.
YouGov: Con 42, Lab 30, LDem 16, Greens 4, BP 3. No change on a poll they did midweek, but a change from an 18pt lead to a 12pt one on their last weekend poll.
Opinium: Con 47, Lab 28, LDem 12, BP 3. A change from a 16pt lead to a 19pt one on the week.

BMG: Con 41, Lab 28, LDem 18, Greens 5, BP 3. A change from an 8pt lead to 13pt point one on the week, but last week's BMG poll made no adjustment for the Brexit Party standing down in Conservative-held constituencies.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #830 on: November 23, 2019, 02:23:50 PM »

Next of the weekend polls:



There are also three London constituency polls similar to what we saw last week, so I'm going to wait for the Guardian to make their post before talking about them.
Logged
DaWN
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,370
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #831 on: November 23, 2019, 02:34:20 PM »

I think its becoming very clear that the pollsters don't have the tiniest bloody idea of what's going on apart from the fact the Tories are in the lead.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #832 on: November 23, 2019, 02:46:22 PM »

I think it's based on sizeable majorities insulating governments somewhat of which there's some political theory behind; 1987 helping Major in 1992, 2001 helping Labour in 2005 despite just a 3 point lead (and 2005 making 2010 harder for the Tories). This is the third (quick) election for the incumbent Tories and if Boris walks away with a majority of 100, it's probably not going to become a Labour majority of say 10 in one cycle.

There's a certain logic to the idea of mass-incumbency bonuses, sure, but I would say that it is more of an occasional tendency than a rule. Three figure majorities melted away at the first challenge in 1964 and 1970, for instance. A long time ago now, a literal lifetime away, yes, but the issue is the operation of this most obviously idiotic of electoral systems rather than direct comparison. And of course one only needs to look at what happened in Scotland in 2015 to see what can happen when the electorate has decisively changed its mind these days: if things turn, they turn. Party affinity and party loyalty at present are also so extremely low now that I wouldn't even be particularly surprised if a genuinely new party were to do randomly very well out of nowhere at some point.
Logged
cp
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,612
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #833 on: November 23, 2019, 03:09:43 PM »

I think it's based on sizeable majorities insulating governments somewhat of which there's some political theory behind; 1987 helping Major in 1992, 2001 helping Labour in 2005 despite just a 3 point lead (and 2005 making 2010 harder for the Tories). This is the third (quick) election for the incumbent Tories and if Boris walks away with a majority of 100, it's probably not going to become a Labour majority of say 10 in one cycle.

There's a certain logic to the idea of mass-incumbency bonuses, sure, but I would say that it is more of an occasional tendency than a rule. Three figure majorities melted away at the first challenge in 1964 and 1970, for instance. A long time ago now, a literal lifetime away, yes, but the issue is the operation of this most obviously idiotic of electoral systems rather than direct comparison. And of course one only needs to look at what happened in Scotland in 2015 to see what can happen when the electorate has decisively changed its mind these days: if things turn, they turn. Party affinity and party loyalty at present are also so extremely low now that I wouldn't even be particularly surprised if a genuinely new party were to do randomly very well out of nowhere at some point.

This is basically the idea behind the model I posted a link to a couple weeks back. It's based on previous election performance, the concept of swing, and leader ratings, and predicted a hung parliament with the Tories losing a handful of seats.

For all the sturm and drang of polling hype, there seems to be a few clear patterns: Tories stable in the low/mid 40s, Labour slowly rising. If those trends continue for the next three weeks a hung parliament is more likely than not.
Logged
afleitch
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,833


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #834 on: November 23, 2019, 03:23:08 PM »

Still no word on whether there will be a Scotland only poll. None so far this campaign (we'd had 5 this time during the last campaign) and Wales is due it's second on Monday.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #835 on: November 23, 2019, 03:33:45 PM »
« Edited: November 23, 2019, 03:37:33 PM by Oryxslayer »

Anyway, The Guardian failed to produce nice charts like last time, so here's the three London Constituency Polls I mentioned. Link to the relevant Guardian piece.


Hendon (Barnet):

Con: 51% (+3)
Lab: 33% (-13)
Lib: 12% (+8)
Grn: 1% (-)

If only Lab/Lib had a change of winning the seat:

Con: 55% / 53%
Lab: 41% / 7%
Lib: 4% / 39%
Grn: 0% / 1%

Cities of London and Westminster:

Con: 39% (-8)
Lib: 33% (+22)
Lab: 26% (-12)
Grn: 1% (-1)

If only Lab/Lib had a change of winning the seat:

Con: 49% / 42%
Lab: 44% / 5%
Lib: 7% / 51%
Grn: 0% / 1%

Chelsea & Fulham:

Con: 48% (-5)
Lib: 25% (+14)
Lab: 24% (-9)

If only Lab/Lib had a change of winning the seat:

Con: 57% / 49%
Lib: 7% / 43%
Lab: 35% / 8%

Obvious disclaimer about constituency polls is obvious. Changes are  with the 2017 results.
Logged
bigic
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 504
Serbia and Montenegro


Political Matrix
E: 2.32, S: -7.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #836 on: November 23, 2019, 05:09:25 PM »



That's pretty bad for the Lib Dems, gaining just 2 seats compared to 2017 despite doubling the level of support.
Logged
Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,305
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #837 on: November 23, 2019, 05:18:03 PM »

The Lib Dems have had a real problem of strong support not being translated into seats under FPTP. It's no surprise that they're big electoral reform advocates.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #838 on: November 23, 2019, 05:41:59 PM »

So far of the weekend glut we have had...

Panelbase: Con 42, Lab 32, LDem 14, BP 3, Greens 3. A change from a 13pt lead to a 10pt one on the week.
YouGov: Con 42, Lab 30, LDem 16, Greens 4, BP 3. No change on a poll they did midweek, but a change from an 18pt lead to a 12pt one on their last weekend poll.
Opinium: Con 47, Lab 28, LDem 12, BP 3. A change from a 16pt lead to a 19pt one on the week.

BMG: Con 41, Lab 28, LDem 18, Greens 5, BP 3. A change from an 8pt lead to 13pt point one on the week, but last week's BMG poll made no adjustment for the Brexit Party standing down in Conservative-held constituencies.

Deltapoll: Con 43, Lab 30, LDem 16, BP 3, Others Huh. A change from a 15pt lead to a 13pt one on the week.
Logged
Pericles
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,066


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #839 on: November 23, 2019, 05:45:03 PM »

The Lib Dems have had a real problem of strong support not being translated into seats under FPTP. It's no surprise that they're big electoral reform advocates.

Also seems that they underperform in every campaign recently (2010 is more of a mixed bag though where they overperformed expectations at the start of the campaign while underperforming end of campaign expectations)
Logged
Lord Halifax
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,304
Papua New Guinea


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #840 on: November 23, 2019, 05:56:38 PM »

Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,959
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #841 on: November 23, 2019, 06:09:04 PM »

Breaking: Wolf Swears he Won't Eat the Sheep This Time
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #842 on: November 23, 2019, 06:11:32 PM »

The Lib Dems have had a real problem of strong support not being translated into seats under FPTP. It's no surprise that they're big electoral reform advocates.

Also seems that they underperform in every campaign recently (2010 is more of a mixed bag though where they overperformed expectations at the start of the campaign while underperforming end of campaign expectations)

LDs have kinda a weird situation. They always underperform their projected vote, because their voters are on average more likely to be white-collar, educated, politically-attuned, and be at least stable in their situation. This leads to a voter base that if presented with a seat where it is obvious the LDs stand no chance, the LD voter will be more likely to cast a red or blue vote depending on his/her opinions. On the other hand, the LDs will outperform the number of seats they should be getting for said percentage. This is because the LD strategy is to narrow in on targets with a greater propensity to flip orange. This often makes LD swing impossible to calculate since they could potentially have a 'latent' voter base in a seat that will be activated by campaign resources. A LD incumbent in this regard is a powerful resource. I personally have the LDs a lot higher in my current 'excel prediction' than most models, because of these historical trends. Mostly this is because Wealthy West London seems poised to be 'activated' and go into strategic voting mode.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #843 on: November 23, 2019, 06:55:15 PM »

So far of the weekend glut we have had...

Panelbase: Con 42, Lab 32, LDem 14, BP 3, Greens 3. A change from a 13pt lead to a 10pt one on the week.
YouGov: Con 42, Lab 30, LDem 16, Greens 4, BP 3. No change on a poll they did midweek, but a change from an 18pt lead to a 12pt one on their last weekend poll.
Opinium: Con 47, Lab 28, LDem 12, BP 3. A change from a 16pt lead to a 19pt one on the week.

BMG: Con 41, Lab 28, LDem 18, Greens 5, BP 3. A change from an 8pt lead to 13pt point one on the week, but last week's BMG poll made no adjustment for the Brexit Party standing down in Conservative-held constituencies.

Deltapoll: Con 43, Lab 30, LDem 16, BP 3, Others Huh. A change from a 15pt lead to a 13pt one on the week.

ComRes: Con 42, Lab 32, LDem 15, BP 5, SNP 4, Greens 2. A change from an 8pt lead to a 10pt one on the week, but a change from an 11pt one to a 10pt one compared to a poll out midweek.
Logged
CumbrianLefty
CumbrianLeftie
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,595
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #844 on: November 23, 2019, 07:32:37 PM »

Anybody who *really* believes the Tories are ahead by 47-28 probably shouldn't be allowed out unattended.
Logged
Lord Halifax
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,304
Papua New Guinea


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #845 on: November 23, 2019, 07:52:38 PM »
« Edited: November 23, 2019, 08:19:38 PM by Lord Halifax »

Panelbase poll of Scotland

SNP 40%
Tories 28%
Labour 20%
Lib Dems 11%
BxP less than 1%

Not great for SNP.

Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #846 on: November 23, 2019, 07:55:53 PM »

My main concern about this latest batch of polls are that the CON+BXP vote share seems to be dropping from something like 48% to something like 46%.  Any CON gains are mostly from gains from BXP due to real shifts in support or methodological changes to take into account that BXP will only be running in half the seats.  At this stage CON gains are maxed out vis-a-vis BXP and any more gains will have to be from LAB or LIB.  But the recent trends seems to be the other direction.
Logged
Pericles
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,066


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #847 on: November 23, 2019, 08:09:36 PM »

Also remember the LibDems ended this parliament with 20 MPs and brought on this election to try and get more MPs, it would be ironic if (as seems pretty likely) they end up with less MPs than they went in with.
Logged
Lumine
LumineVonReuental
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,610
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #848 on: November 23, 2019, 08:17:28 PM »

I have wonder what kind of result would force Swinson into resigning. Would she be able to stay on if the party barely makes any gains - or even loses seats -? Are we looking at Tim Farron 2: Electric Boogaloo?
Logged
Coastal Elitist
Tea Party Hater
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,251
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.71, S: 2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #849 on: November 23, 2019, 08:25:35 PM »

Still no word on whether there will be a Scotland only poll. None so far this campaign (we'd had 5 this time during the last campaign) and Wales is due it's second on Monday.
New scotland poll
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 29 30 31 32 33 [34] 35 36 37 38 39 ... 69  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.065 seconds with 10 queries.