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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Babette d'Interlaken)
  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 86021 times)
DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1500 on: December 11, 2019, 03:39:17 pm »
« edited: December 12, 2019, 03:24:58 pm by DistingFlyer »

Here's a graph showing the parties' poll numbers over the campaign (will update if/when more come in before tomorrow night):




As for my own prediction:

Cons - 342 MPs (43%)
Lab - 226 MPs (34%)
Lib Dem - 17 MPs (12%)
Nat - 46 MPs (3%)
GP - 1 MP (3%)

Overall majority: 34
Overall swing: 3.0% to Cons

Margin of error: +/- 15 MPs (equivalent to roughly +/- 2% of swing)
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parochial boy
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« Reply #1501 on: December 11, 2019, 04:11:37 pm »

Aha, very funny Comres, very funny.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1502 on: December 11, 2019, 04:12:17 pm »

This is fun...

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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1503 on: December 11, 2019, 04:23:29 pm »

I'm going to try and keep away from anything election related apart from actually voting tomorrow until the exit poll; I'll see you then.

It's certainly going to be an interesting night.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1504 on: December 11, 2019, 04:36:23 pm »

SHOCK POLL!!!!!!!!!
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #1505 on: December 11, 2019, 04:50:22 pm »

Haven't posted here all campaign...over the past few days I'm actually starting to believe a hung parliament is possible. With so many close seats and undecided voters it feels like the result is on a knife edge between comfortable Tory majority and some sort of minority government. Pointless to make a prediction.

Labour definitely have a bit of momentum going into polling day though.
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President Pericles
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« Reply #1506 on: December 11, 2019, 04:51:09 pm »

Haven't posted here all campaign...over the past few days I'm actually starting to believe a hung parliament is possible. With so many close seats and undecided voters it feels like the result is on a knife edge between comfortable Tory majority and some sort of minority government. Pointless to make a prediction.

Labour definitely have a bit of momentum going into polling day though.

If it is a hung parliament, this might be one of the few cases where 'late swing' is a valid explanation for the polling error.
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jfern
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« Reply #1507 on: December 11, 2019, 04:56:59 pm »

I'm hoping for some anti-Conservative tactical voting like there just was in Canada.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1508 on: December 11, 2019, 05:04:24 pm »

I'm hoping for some anti-Conservative tactical voting like there just was in Canada.

There's a fair degree of that already, and has been for some time - one reason why a Tory lead of 10% will probably not get them a majority greater than 50 - and why an actual lead of 8% in 1992 got them a majority of just 21 - while a Labour lead of 9% in 2001 produced a majority of 167.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1509 on: December 11, 2019, 05:04:56 pm »



Another shockingly stable poll.



One that's less than stable.
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Comrade Doof
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« Reply #1510 on: December 11, 2019, 05:10:00 pm »

Lots of herding now, except Savanta Com Res.....
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1511 on: December 11, 2019, 05:28:05 pm »
« Edited: December 11, 2019, 05:32:36 pm by DistingFlyer »

Here's how the polls moved in some past elections:

1970


Feb 1974


Oct 1974


1979


1983


1987


1992


1997



2017


The darker line disregards the polls indicating the Labour rise stopping in the final week, while the brighter line takes all polls into account. Maybe the former were overcorrecting for 2015.


In general, a party's lead shrinks over the course of a campaign - sometimes just a little, sometimes quite a bit (1997 & 2017), but rarely does the party trailing actually finish up ahead (1970 & 1992). Unless there's a big surprise tomorrow, this election looks to follow the general model: the party leading at the start of the campaign still leads at the end, but by a somewhat smaller margin.

I was struck by Prof. King's remark in 1992, commenting on the surprise Tory win, that parties trailing usually fell further behind during a campaign; not sure on what he based that, but it doesn't seem accurate (even in pre-1970 elections: the Labour lead in 1964 & 1966 ended up being a little less than at the campaign's start, while the Tory lead in 1959 also shrank a tiny bit).
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1512 on: December 11, 2019, 05:29:22 pm »

Less than 24 Hours remain until BBC opens the exit poll envelope.
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jaymichaud
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« Reply #1513 on: December 11, 2019, 05:39:54 pm »

It's gonna be a slaughter for Labor... isn't it
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1514 on: December 11, 2019, 06:03:52 pm »
« Edited: December 11, 2019, 06:10:13 pm by DistingFlyer »

One more chart - this one looks at swings vs. seats that changed hands. (Will update it once tomorrow's results are complete.)

A note of explanation: the x-axis denotes the swing at each election, while the y-axis denotes the number of seats that changed hands between the two big parties as a percentage of marginals - for instance, 1979 saw a net change of 52 seats between Labour & Conservative out of 58 Labour marginals, while 1997 saw a net change of 144 seats between Conservative & Labour out of 68 Conservative marginals. Additionally, the color of each dot denotes the direction of the swing at the election.



One can observe the ability of Labour to defend vulnerable seats when there's a swing against them (1979 & 2001), and their ability to make extra gains when there's a swing toward them (1964, 1974, 1992, 1997 & 2017). Occasionally the Tories will make more gains than the swing would suggest (2010) or lose fewer (1974). Tactical voting obviously has something to do with this, as does what was called a 'tactical vote unwind' in 2005 & 2010.

Given that there's a certain degree of anti-Tory tactical voting already happening (look at 2017), I'm not sure how far from the line tomorrow's result will stray - perhaps on the order of 1987 or 2005, but I'd be very surprised if it was like 1979 or 1992.
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MissScarlett
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« Reply #1515 on: December 11, 2019, 06:04:37 pm »

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LfRjAazZUbSjAOQ0w_ctAPWKfi5hBKilNj0LvuIZp9U/edit#gid=0

Full YouGov MRP poll by each race. Very accurate in 2017. Got laughed at for predicting Canterbury would flip (a seat that voted Tory for over 100 years) seeing a 20% swing.
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jfern
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« Reply #1516 on: December 11, 2019, 06:41:40 pm »

It's crazy how large the sample is for that YouGov poll at 105k, but at some point sampling error becomes larger than the statistical error.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1517 on: December 11, 2019, 07:08:20 pm »

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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1518 on: December 11, 2019, 07:16:33 pm »



Survation with their closing remarks.
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Priest of Moloch
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« Reply #1519 on: December 11, 2019, 07:30:29 pm »

Hearing reports of rain in northern Gloucestershire. Corbyn is finished.
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(CT) The Free North
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« Reply #1520 on: December 11, 2019, 07:35:29 pm »

Is there any chance Corbyn loses support of the party after the election? He's headed for another GE loss most likely, but does that matter?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1521 on: December 11, 2019, 07:51:19 pm »

Is there any chance Corbyn loses support of the party after the election? He's headed for another GE loss most likely, but does that matter?

The mans going on 71. If Boris wins a majority than he can't remain on purely because of his expected age in 2024, which is when one has to assume the next GE is. This is ignoring the potential loss of authority. Unless Labour does historically bad though, and Corbyn needs to be kicked to the curb for blame like Miliband, he's in a reasonable short-term position. Labour can't afford to go into chaotic infighting right when the UK is about to reshape her position in world affairs and potentially enter fiscal uncertainty. However, he has lost authority. It's in everyone's best interests therefore that Corbyn announces that he will be 'resigning in the near future.' For Labour generally, it puts them in the position to benefit from Boris's parliament and Brexit. The general public will see not Corbyn's Labour and it's failings, but their idealized (wishfully) potential Labour. For Corbyn and his allies in particular, it gives them time to stack the leadership contest in favor of some preferred successors.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1522 on: December 11, 2019, 08:39:06 pm »

It's gonna be a slaughter for Labor... isn't it

Far from certain to put it mildly.

I mean, it is *possible* most certainly (the polls could possibly even be wrong in that they are *under*stating the Tory position) but it is acknowledged by observers that Tory HQ has been distinctly jittery in the last few days.....
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1523 on: December 11, 2019, 09:13:17 pm »

Probably not a coincidence that all the polls that showed the biggest Tory leads show gains from Labour, while those with more reasonable leads to begin with are showing no movement whatsoever. This is probably all herding rather than meaningful movement.

It's possible that pollsters have good reasons to be herding (ie, they've figured out their models were junk all along and are trying to correct them at the last minute to follow the lead of better pollsters). But it's equally possible that all this herding is actually leading the polls astray, like it did in the last week of 2016 when Hillary seemed to be regaining ground. Nate's first rule of polling error is always in the back of my mind in moments like this.

(Not making a prediction either way, just thinking out loud.)
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Comrade Doof
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« Reply #1524 on: December 11, 2019, 09:31:40 pm »

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