United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 135688 times)
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1500 on: December 11, 2019, 07:16:33 PM »



Survation with their closing remarks.
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Donerail
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« Reply #1501 on: December 11, 2019, 07:30:29 PM »

Hearing reports of rain in northern Gloucestershire. Corbyn is finished.
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The Free North
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« Reply #1502 on: December 11, 2019, 07:35:29 PM »

Is there any chance Corbyn loses support of the party after the election? He's headed for another GE loss most likely, but does that matter?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1503 on: December 11, 2019, 07:51:19 PM »

Is there any chance Corbyn loses support of the party after the election? He's headed for another GE loss most likely, but does that matter?

The mans going on 71. If Boris wins a majority than he can't remain on purely because of his expected age in 2024, which is when one has to assume the next GE is. This is ignoring the potential loss of authority. Unless Labour does historically bad though, and Corbyn needs to be kicked to the curb for blame like Miliband, he's in a reasonable short-term position. Labour can't afford to go into chaotic infighting right when the UK is about to reshape her position in world affairs and potentially enter fiscal uncertainty. However, he has lost authority. It's in everyone's best interests therefore that Corbyn announces that he will be 'resigning in the near future.' For Labour generally, it puts them in the position to benefit from Boris's parliament and Brexit. The general public will see not Corbyn's Labour and it's failings, but their idealized (wishfully) potential Labour. For Corbyn and his allies in particular, it gives them time to stack the leadership contest in favor of some preferred successors.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1504 on: December 11, 2019, 08:39:06 PM »

It's gonna be a slaughter for Labor... isn't it

Far from certain to put it mildly.

I mean, it is *possible* most certainly (the polls could possibly even be wrong in that they are *under*stating the Tory position) but it is acknowledged by observers that Tory HQ has been distinctly jittery in the last few days.....
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1505 on: December 11, 2019, 09:13:17 PM »

Probably not a coincidence that all the polls that showed the biggest Tory leads show gains from Labour, while those with more reasonable leads to begin with are showing no movement whatsoever. This is probably all herding rather than meaningful movement.

It's possible that pollsters have good reasons to be herding (ie, they've figured out their models were junk all along and are trying to correct them at the last minute to follow the lead of better pollsters). But it's equally possible that all this herding is actually leading the polls astray, like it did in the last week of 2016 when Hillary seemed to be regaining ground. Nate's first rule of polling error is always in the back of my mind in moments like this.

(Not making a prediction either way, just thinking out loud.)
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #1506 on: December 11, 2019, 09:31:40 PM »

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PSOL
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« Reply #1507 on: December 11, 2019, 10:01:48 PM »

I think it’s clear that the Tories will be the largest party. The only real question is wether they have enough to govern with the DUP. If so, they’ll have no problem passing their agenda for the next couple of years.
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jfern
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« Reply #1508 on: December 12, 2019, 01:17:10 AM »

I think it’s clear that the Tories will be the largest party. The only real question is wether they have enough to govern with the DUP. If so, they’ll have no problem passing their agenda for the next couple of years.

Well, if it's a large enough majority, there won't be another election until 2024.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1509 on: December 12, 2019, 02:40:17 AM »

I have a potentially stupid question: Is there no parliament as of now? BoJo's and Corbyn's Wikipedia articles say their term as MP expired on Nov 6? And their district article says current officeholder is vacant? I know the House of Commons is out of session, but MPs should still be in office?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1510 on: December 12, 2019, 02:52:01 AM »

I have a potentially stupid question: Is there no parliament as of now? BoJo's and Corbyn's Wikipedia articles say their term as MP expired on Nov 6? And their district article says current officeholder is vacant? I know the House of Commons is out of session, but MPs should still be in office?

No in UK, once writ drops, all MPs cease to be MPs until the election is completed.  PM and cabinet ministers through remain in their positions but caretaker role only.
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Dereich
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« Reply #1511 on: December 12, 2019, 04:31:04 AM »

I think it’s clear that the Tories will be the largest party. The only real question is wether they have enough to govern with the DUP. If so, they’ll have no problem passing their agenda for the next couple of years.

I think they’d have major problems passing their agenda with the DUP. The DUP isn’t ever going to accept the Tory Brexit plan, built as it is on essentially leaving Northern Ireland alone in the customs union. And if Boris “Get Brexit Done” Johnson can’t even pass his Brexit plan, what hope does he have of achieving anything else? Honestly, that’s probably the worst scenario possible Brexit-wise. No majority for a Brexit deal and no majority for a second referendum.
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #1512 on: December 12, 2019, 01:22:52 PM »

I have a potentially stupid question: Is there no parliament as of now? BoJo's and Corbyn's Wikipedia articles say their term as MP expired on Nov 6? And their district article says current officeholder is vacant? I know the House of Commons is out of session, but MPs should still be in office?

No in UK, once writ drops, all MPs cease to be MPs until the election is completed.  PM and cabinet ministers through remain in their positions but caretaker role only.

Wouldn't this be a problem if there's a major crisis during the campaign period? Like if the Argentinians invade the Falklands again, or something.
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Queen Isuelt
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« Reply #1513 on: December 12, 2019, 02:21:44 PM »

No way turnout will beat 2017 - middle of summer long days. Today’s weather is very bleak - ice cold winds in labour heartlands. Tories will win if labour doesn’t get vote out which is looking unlikely
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Gary J
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« Reply #1514 on: December 12, 2019, 03:28:20 PM »

I have a potentially stupid question: Is there no parliament as of now? BoJo's and Corbyn's Wikipedia articles say their term as MP expired on Nov 6? And their district article says current officeholder is vacant? I know the House of Commons is out of session, but MPs should still be in office?

No in UK, once writ drops, all MPs cease to be MPs until the election is completed.  PM and cabinet ministers through remain in their positions but caretaker role only.

Wouldn't this be a problem if there's a major crisis during the campaign period? Like if the Argentinians invade the Falklands again, or something.

The executive would just have to do the best it could, using the royal prerogative. If the crisis was big enough they could use the Civil Contingencies Act 2004.

Quote
20Power to make emergency regulations
(1)Her Majesty may by Order in Council make emergency regulations if satisfied that the conditions in section 21 are satisfied.
(2)A senior Minister of the Crown may make emergency regulations if satisfied—
(a)that the conditions in section 21 are satisfied, and
(b)that it would not be possible, without serious delay, to arrange for an Order in Council under subsection (1).
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #1515 on: December 12, 2019, 03:29:26 PM »

I think it’s clear that the Tories will be the largest party. The only real question is wether they have enough to govern with the DUP. If so, they’ll have no problem passing their agenda for the next couple of years.

I think they’d have major problems passing their agenda with the DUP. The DUP isn’t ever going to accept the Tory Brexit plan, built as it is on essentially leaving Northern Ireland alone in the customs union. And if Boris “Get Brexit Done” Johnson can’t even pass his Brexit plan, what hope does he have of achieving anything else? Honestly, that’s probably the worst scenario possible Brexit-wise. No majority for a Brexit deal and no majority for a second referendum.
That was always my concern about having an election to try and resolve this - you just end up back in the same situation. Other issues have also become more important, such as health and education, as happened in 2017.
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John Dule
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« Reply #1516 on: December 12, 2019, 05:39:43 PM »

Looks like a big win for Boris. I'm excited. Hopefully Corbyn will have to step down.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #1517 on: December 12, 2019, 05:42:16 PM »

I'm not an expert,  but wouldn't Labor kind of "want" to lose this election?   The Brexit thing isn't looking all that good, and an economic crash is likely in the near future.   I don't see much real benefit for Labor winning this election in the long term.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #1518 on: December 12, 2019, 05:45:33 PM »

Overall dissapointed but not surprised

yeah, Corbyn must be tossed if Labour ever wants to dream of coming back

Im happy SNP bounced back, that’s the only thing I am happy about, I’d vote for them if I was from Scotland, I remain proud of and like Scotland

Labour overall

strategic voting ofc tho

like if libdem was the only one with a chance in an area id be stratetic
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1519 on: December 12, 2019, 06:01:04 PM »



Supposedly very close in Sunderland Central, but no cigar.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #1520 on: December 12, 2019, 06:19:54 PM »



Supposedly very close in Sunderland Central, but no cigar.
good to see, IIRC this was one of the con marginals in the yougov projection?
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Matty
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« Reply #1521 on: December 12, 2019, 06:22:15 PM »

It’s very early, but it looks like cons aren’t winning seats that exit poll said they had high chance of flipping
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Badger
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« Reply #1522 on: December 12, 2019, 06:29:13 PM »

I'm not an expert,  but wouldn't Labor kind of "want" to lose this election?   The Brexit thing isn't looking all that good, and an economic crash is likely in the near future.   I don't see much real benefit for Labor winning this election in the long term.

I sincerely doubt labor wants to have Boris Johnson and the Tories leading the country for the next 5 years
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Badger
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« Reply #1523 on: December 12, 2019, 06:38:36 PM »

Well, it's quite Apparent at this point that Boris Johnson's going to have a large majority and be able to get brexit done imminently, possibly by the new year.

Enjoy shooting your economy in the foot, Great Britain. But no thanks for the collateral effects it'll have on the world economy,  right down to over here in the US.
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McGarnagle
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« Reply #1524 on: December 12, 2019, 08:19:10 PM »

In ten years, the United Kingdom will have split up. The NHS will be no longer.

I hope I'm wrong but I doubt it.
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