°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
Junior Chimp
Posts: 8,245
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2019, 01:54:22 PM » |
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« Edited: October 27, 2019, 02:00:13 PM by Hate has no home here »
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I don't think that Buttigieg will come in first place. My guess is that the top three will be
Warren, Biden and Sanders in that order. If Warren comes in first she could get the nomination.
Iowa alone, however, will not determine who gets the nomination and SC is highly overrated.
If someone were to win IA, NH, NV and SC, that person, whoever it is, will likely get the nomination, otherwise the nomination could be decided in March.
I highly doubt that any candidate will sweep all four early states.
There will be dropouts in Nov. Dec. and Jan.
By the last day in January there will be five candidates who have a shot at this.
Yang could be in sixth place. The five will be in alphabetical order: Biden, Buttigieg, Harris, Sanders and Warren.
None of these are bold predictions however; it is very fluid, so making any bold prediction would be too bold for me.
By the April 28th it could come down to one or two candidates, I suspect the latter, but I really have no idea.
A brokered convention is possible, if unlikely.
The lowest tier candidates like Williamson, Delaney etc will stubbornly stay in for a while and may wait to be clobbered in IA, it is the middle tier candidates like Klobuchar, Beto, Booker and certainly Castro who are most likely to drop out, but it would not surprise me if candidates like Bennet and Bullock drop out before Iowa, but since they have little chance, it won't surprise anyone if they drop out.
Steyer and Gabbard also don't have a chance at this point, but whether they drop out anytime soon is anyone's guess.
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