Redraw of Missouri's Congressional Seats

[RBH]

I split the counties by percentages to achieve equality under the 2000 Census. Counties with blue dots in them are the ones that get split.



District 1 (Clay): Purple. All of St. Louis City and 27% of St. Louis County.

District 2 (Akin and Carnahan): Skyblue. 61% of St. Louis County

District 3 (Emerson): Pale Yellow. 12% of St. Louis County. 8% of St. Francois County.

District 4 (Hulshof): Green. Goes all the way from Columbia to St. Charles. Includes 84% of St. Charles county, 43% of Washington County, and 92% of St. Francois County.

District 5 (Open Seat): Skyblue, South Missouri. Includes 53% of Cole County, 17% of Benton County, and 4% of Greene County.

District 6 (Graves): Red. Includes 47% of Cole County and 16% of St. Charles County.

District 7 (Blunt): Pale Green. 96% of Greene County.

District 8 (Skelton): Yellow. 83% of Benton County and 5% of Jackson County.

District 9 (Cleaver): Green. 95% of Jackson County.

Each district has 621090 people.

{Edit starts here}

Here's a list of the counties in each district and the population i'd be intending to put there.

CD1:

St. Louis City: 348189 (56%)
St. Louis County: 273501 (44%)

CD2:

St. Louis County: 621090 (100%)

CD3:

Bollinger: 12029 (2%)
Cape Giraudeau: 68693 (11%)
Dunklin: 33155 (5%)
Jefferson: 198099 (32%)
Madison: 11800 (2%)
Mississippi: 13427 (2%)
New Madrid: 19,760 (3%)
Pemiscot: 20,047 (3%)
Perry: 18,132 (3%)
Scott: 40,422 (7%)
St. Louis County: 121,124 (19%)
Ste. Genevieve: 17,842 (3%)
St. Francois: 4,196 (1%)
Stoddard: 29,705 (5%)
Wayne: 13,259 (2%)

CD4:
Boone: 135454 (22%)
Callaway: 40766 (7%)
Franklin: 93807 (15%)
Gasconade: 15,342 (2%)
Montgomery: 12136 (2%)
St. Charles: 238,187 (38%)
St. Francois: 51,445 (8%)
Warren: 24,525 (4%)
Washington: 10,029 (2%)

CD5 (32 counties):
Benton:  2,888 (0%)
Butler: 40,867 (7%)
Camden: 37,051 (6%)
Carter: 5,941 (1%)
Cedar: 13,733 (2%)
Cole: 37,975 (6%)
Crawford: 22,804 (4%)
Dallas: 15,661 (3%)
Dent: 14,927 (2%)
Douglas: 13,084 (2%)
Greene: 10,028 (2%)
Hickory: 8,940 (1%)
Howell: 37,238 (6%)
Iron: 10,697 (2%)
Laclede: 32,513 (5%)
Maries: 8,903 (1%)
Miller: 23,564 (4%)
Oregon: 10,344 (2%)
Osage: 13,062 (2%)
Ozark: 9,542 (2%)
Phelps: 39,825 (6%)
Polk: 26,992 (4%)
Pulaski: 41,165 (7%)
Reynolds: 6,689 (1%)
Ripley: 13,509 (2%)
Shannon: 8,324 (1%)
St. Clair: 9,652 (2%)
Texas: 23,003 (4%)
Vernon: 20,454 (3%)
Washington: 13,315 (2%)
Webster: 31,045 (5%)
Wright: 17,955 (3%)

CD6 (39 counties):
Adair: 24,977 (4%)
Andrew: 16,492 (3%)
Atchison: 6,430 (1%)
Audrain: 25,853 (4%)
Buchanan: 85,998 (14%)
Carroll: 10,285 (2%)
Chariton: 8,438 (1%)
Clark: 7,416 (1%)
Cooper: 16,670 (3%)
Cole: 33,422 (5%)
Daviess: 8,016 (1%)
DeKalb: 11,597 (2%)
Gentry: 6,861 (1%)
Grundy: 10,432 (2%)
Harrison: 8,850 (1%)
Holt: 5,351 (1%)
Howard: 10,212 (2%)
Knox: 4,361 (1%)
Lewis: 10,494 (2%)
Lincoln: 38,944 (6%)
Linn: 13,754 (2%)
Livingston: 14,558 (2%)
Macon: 15,762 (3%)
Marion: 28,289 (5%)
Mercer: 3,757 (1%)
Moniteau: 14,827 (2%)
Monroe: 9,311 (1%)
Morgan: 19,309 (3%)
Nodaway: 21,912 (4%)
Pike: 18,351 (3%)
Putnam: 5,223 (1%)
Ralls: 9,626 (2%)
Randolph: 24,663 (4%)
St. Charles: 45,696 (7%)
Schuyler: 4,170 (1%)
Scotland: 4,983 (1%)
Shelby: 6,799 (1%)
Sullivan:  7,219 (1%)
Worth: 2,382 (0%)

CD7:
Barry: 34,010 (5%)
Barton: 12,541 (2%)
Christian: 54,285 (9%)
Dade: 7,923 (1%)
Greene: 230,363 (37%)
Jasper: 104,686 (17%)
Lawrence: 35,204 (6%)
McDonald: 21,681 (3%)
Newton: 52,636 (8%)
Stone: 28,658 (5%)
Taney: 39,703 (6%)

CD8:
Bates: 16653 (3%)
Benton: 14292 (2%)
Kramer: 8969 (1%)
Cass: 82092 (13%)
Clay: 184006 (30%)
Clinton: 18979 (3%)
Henry: 21997 (4%)
Jackson: 33190 (5%)
Johnson: 48258 (8%)
Lafayette: 32960 (5%)
Pettis: 39403 (6%)
Platte: 73781 (12%)
Ray: 23354 (4%)
Saline: 23756 (4%)

CD9:
Jackson: 621690 (100%)

There, the details of the evil plan

{end edit}

I also attempted a pretty arbitrary split of the votes of counties to simulate how the counties went in 2004 (IOW, the split counties get split to my liking) [The 2004 results in the current district]

CD1: 71/29 Kerry [75/25 Kerry]
CD2: 53/47 Kerry [60/40 Bush in Akin's district, 57/43 Kerry in Carnahan's district]
CD3: 56/44 Bush [59/41 Bush in CD9]
CD4: 55/45 Bush [63/36 Bush in CD8]
CD5: 68/32 Bush [No comparison fits here]
CD6: 61/39 Bush [57/42 Bush in CD6]
CD7: 68/32 Bush [67/32 Bush]
CD8: 57/43 Bush [64/35 Bush]
CD9: 59/41 Kerry [59/40 Kerry]

And yes, this could be called gerrymandering.

But then again, Missouri is a state where there should be a realistic shot of 5/4 splits in the delegations.

Five districts are "totally safe" [CD1 and CD9 are safe for the Dems. CD5, CD6, and CD7 are safe for the GOP]. 3-2 GOP

Four districts could swing. Hulshof and Emerson would be in bluer districts. The St. Louis County district (CD2) is an obvious swing district and it would be incumbent/incumbent too. The Kansas City suburbs district (CD8) could be competitive when Skelton retires.

I'll provide numbers on how the vote got split in counties on request.

Any thoughts?

[muon2]

Interesting map. What were your criteria for the districts? I see you used exact population, so each distrtict has some partial county. Was competitive balance a goal or a result? What makes it an improvement on the existing map?

It's hard to comment without knowing some of the driving factors you used.

[RBH]

First off, here's the current map:



Criteria: Well, I was mainly interested in creating a district that would include a lot of the Kansas City-area (outside of the actual city). As well, the 5th district was sorta unexpected.

Competitive balance is definately a result of the map. The current map represents a 53/46 state without one district where the winner won less than 57%. This map has one swing district, makes two more seats more competitive, and also helps make another race competitive in CD8 if the seat is opened up.

As for improvements on the current map. I'd imagine that the competitive balance is an improvement. You can check the map I provide in this post for comparison's sake.

[opebo]

Nice work, RBH.  I don't know a lot about the Missouri congressional districts, though I would say that 1, 2, and 3 are pretty well devised as stands today, in terms of representing a cohesive class within the heirarchical society of St. Louis.  1 is the black district, 2 is the upper middle and upper class white, and 3 the working class white.

[minionofmidas]

Though it voted for Bush, your third district includes lots and lots of populist yellow dogs, and would probably be safe-ish dem as soon as the rep incumbent is out of the way.

[opebo]

Though it voted for Bush, your third district includes lots and lots of populist yellow dogs, and would probably be safe-ish dem as soon as the rep incumbent is out of the way.

No, I think #3 is Gephart's old district, and is now occupied by Russ Carnahan, Democrat and son of the former governor Mel Carnahan who died in a plane crash but still beat Ashcroft in 2000.  I once saw Russ in a movie theatre.. it was a movie about the christians running the video stores out of business in the late 1980's early 1990's for renting pornos.

[minionofmidas]

Though it voted for Bush, your third district includes lots and lots of populist yellow dogs, and would probably be safe-ish dem as soon as the rep incumbent is out of the way.

No, I think #3 is Gephart's old district, and is now occupied by Russ Carnahan, Democrat and son of the former governor Mel Carnahan who died in a plane crash but still beat Ashcroft in 2000.  I once saw Russ in a movie theatre.. it was a movie about the christians running the video stores out of business in the late 1980's early 1990's for renting pornos.

I was referring to RBH's third district, not the current one.

[opebo]

Oh yes, of course.  Your statement makes perfect sense then.  The third district as RBH has it is very poor, other than the very northernmost county or two.

[muon2]

One area where you can improve on the existing map is to reduce the number of split counties. The current map has 8 split counties and 18 county pieces that are not whole districts. Your map still has 8 split counties but reduces the number of non-whole-district pieces to 15. That's an improvement. It is also ideal to have no district with more that two county pieces. The current map has two with more than two, and you improve this to one.

Since MO has two counties large enough to have a whole district (St. Louis Co, and Jackson), it should be possible to have only 6 split counties with 12 non-whole-district pieces. However, that requires that the two large counties each have two pieces and that messes up your design for suburban KC. The area north of KC would have to move to the northern MO district.

Keeping your plan for KC means that the ideal is 7 split counties and 13 pieces at a minimum. This requires that all districts except around St Louis and KC have two split county pieces. So districts 5, 7, 8 should be slightly shifted. One easy shift is to move all of Benton into CD 5, split Vernon between CD 7 (6,162) and CD 8 (14,292), and move and additional 6,162 from Greene 7 into 5. This doesn't change the number of splits but reduces the number of splits in CD 5.

To reduce the number of splits in CD 5 to two, move all of Washington into CD 4, and an additional 13,315 in Cole from CD 6 to CD 5. Then shift 13,315 in St. Charles from CD 4 to CD 6.

Now the number of split counties is down to 7: St. Louis, St. Francois, St. Charles, Cole, Greene, Vernon, and Jackson. Jackson has one non-whole-district piece, and the others each have two for a total of 13 pieces. This keeps most of your idea intact, but makes a stronger case that it is a superior map to the current one from a point of view of geographic integrity.

[minionofmidas]

I was just wondering about the Voting Rights Act with this map...unless the first district's potion of St Louis County were horribly misshapen, your map doesn't have a district that is Black-plurality or close to it. The current one has.
Of course the election of Emmanuel Cleaver in KC probably shows that urban Missourians are not that racist as to require a Black-majority seat for them to win, but I'm not sure if the Act cares about that.

[muon2]

I was just wondering about the Voting Rights Act with this map...unless the first district's potion of St Louis County were horribly misshapen, your map doesn't have a district that is Black-plurality or close to it. The current one has.
Of course the election of Emmanuel Cleaver in KC probably shows that urban Missourians are not that racist as to require a Black-majority seat for them to win, but I'm not sure if the Act cares about that.

I don't think it's a problem. MO is not one of the states under higher scrutiny under the Act. The statewide African-American population is less than the national average. Also, RBH's CD 1 would be majority minority if it included the area in St. Louis county from University township north. For example, use these townships: University, Normandy, Norwood, Ferguson, Halls Ferry, St. Ferdinand, Spanish Lake, and most of Florissant. The result would be about 54% African-American.

[minionofmidas]

I was just wondering about the Voting Rights Act with this map...unless the first district's potion of St Louis County were horribly misshapen, your map doesn't have a district that is Black-plurality or close to it. The current one has.
Of course the election of Emmanuel Cleaver in KC probably shows that urban Missourians are not that racist as to require a Black-majority seat for them to win, but I'm not sure if the Act cares about that.

I don't think it's a problem. MO is not one of the states under higher scrutiny under the Act. The statewide African-American population is less than the national average. Also, RBH's CD 1 would be majority minority if it included the area in St. Louis county from University township north. For example, use these townships: University, Normandy, Norwood, Ferguson, Halls Ferry, St. Ferdinand, Spanish Lake, and most of Florissant. The result would be about 54% African-American.

Not much different from today, then? So the areas that would go out are just as White or Whiter than the city's Southside?

[muon2]

I was just wondering about the Voting Rights Act with this map...unless the first district's potion of St Louis County were horribly misshapen, your map doesn't have a district that is Black-plurality or close to it. The current one has.
Of course the election of Emmanuel Cleaver in KC probably shows that urban Missourians are not that racist as to require a Black-majority seat for them to win, but I'm not sure if the Act cares about that.

I don't think it's a problem. MO is not one of the states under higher scrutiny under the Act. The statewide African-American population is less than the national average. Also, RBH's CD 1 would be majority minority if it included the area in St. Louis county from University township north. For example, use these townships: University, Normandy, Norwood, Ferguson, Halls Ferry, St. Ferdinand, Spanish Lake, and most of Florissant. The result would be about 54% African-American.

Not much different from today, then? So the areas that would go out are just as White or Whiter than the city's Southside?

I don't have the detailed data within St. Louis city, but if the district percentages are similar, then the swapped areas must be as well.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Nice work, RBH.  I don't know a lot about the Missouri congressional districts, though I would say that 1, 2, and 3 are pretty well devised as stands today, in terms of representing a cohesive class within the heirarchical society of St. Louis.  1 is the black district, 2 is the upper middle and upper class white, and 3 the working class white.

So which one do you live in? 2?

[opebo]

Nice work, RBH.  I don't know a lot about the Missouri congressional districts, though I would say that 1, 2, and 3 are pretty well devised as stands today, in terms of representing a cohesive class within the heirarchical society of St. Louis.  1 is the black district, 2 is the upper middle and upper class white, and 3 the working class white.

So which one do you live in? 2?

Not exactly.  I'm nomadic, though I do live in 2 sometimes when subletting.. other times 3 or even 1.   My family however lives on a 35 acre gated compound in the exurban part of #3.

[muon2]

If you are willing to let districts vary up to 0.5% from the ideal size, but keep counties intact as much as possible, like IA, you can get the following map (with existing IA shown as well):



The MO districts have the following sizes:

CD 1 St. Louis (blue) 623.2 K
CD 2 Chesterfield (red) 619.4 K
CD 3 Cape Girardeau (blue) 622.0 K
CD 4 Columbia (green) 623.5 K
CD 5 Kansas City (red) 621.9 K
CD 6 St. Joseph (blue) 619.9 K
CD 7 Springfield (yellow) 623.8 K
CD 8 Jefferson City (red) 621.9 K
CD 9 St. Charles (yellow) 619.6 K

[RBH]

That new map does have two pairings of incumbents (Skelton/Hulshof in CD4 and Akin/Carnahan in CD2)

Then again, a map like that, if applied in 2012, would probably inspire someone like Hulshof to just run for Governor.

[jimrtex]

Then again, a map like that, if applied in 2012, would probably inspire someone like Hulshof to just run for Governor.

In 2012, you will need to eliminate a district.

If you took the existing map, combine the two St Louis suburban districts (2 and 2), with St Louis (1) expanding outward.  KC (5) expands outward, and the 3 western districts (4, 6, and 7) move eastward, taking in Columbia and the eastern Ozarks.  The two rural eastern districts (8 and 9) move in to the outer St. Louis suburbs.