Romney the nominee in 2016, how does he do against H. Clinton?
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  Romney the nominee in 2016, how does he do against H. Clinton?
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Author Topic: Romney the nominee in 2016, how does he do against H. Clinton?  (Read 1560 times)
Donald Trump’s Toupée
GOP_Represent
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« on: October 22, 2019, 11:02:54 AM »

Answer the question, and discuss.

This is for the 2016 elections. Hypothetical that has Romney running and winning the GOP primary, and faces the same H. Clinton that Trump did, with Comey email scandal and all.

Maps, electoral projections, and popular vote estimates would be nice.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2019, 07:30:29 PM »



Fmr. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) ✓
Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) / Businesswoman Carly Fiorina (R-CA)


Romney drops into the crowded GOP field and snags the nomination again. For his running mate, he offers Rubio a spot, but he declines. He then picks outsider Carly Fiorina in an attempt to appeal to anti-establishment sentiment and look like the business candidate. "Binders full of women" is drudged up at the debates. Romney fails to appeal to the white working class or excite minorities, while also being associated with the unpopular and dying religious right by Clinton, and loses again 322-216. Same map if Tim Kaine is Clinton's running mate, maybe give or take Ohio.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2019, 09:53:17 PM »

Romney might have been able to pull it off
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El Betico
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2019, 04:51:17 PM »
« Edited: October 23, 2019, 07:56:54 PM by El Betico »

Michigan and Pennsylvania stay Dem

Florida leans Dem/ tossup

Ohio tossup

Iowa leans GOP/ tossup

Wisconsin probably GOP

New Hampshire in play

Nevada, Colorado and Virginia really in play, with some doubts over his possibilities to overcome the Dem structural advantage there, but definitely doing better than Trump.

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Basil
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2019, 08:33:56 PM »

Michigan and Pennsylvania stay Dem

Florida leans Dem/ tossup

Ohio tossup

Iowa leans GOP/ tossup

Wisconsin probably GOP

New Hampshire in play

Nevada, Colorado and Virginia really in play, with some doubts over his possibilities to overcome the Dem structural advantage there, but definitely doing better than Trump.



I have to disagree with your analysis. Romney would under-perform against Trump's margins with working-class voters. Think of places like Parma, Ohio which was a Obama-Trump city. There's nothing to suggest Romney world perform any better in these types of places than he did in 2012. Further, Romney would be damaged by being a re-run and all his baggage would weigh him down, cancelling out whatever gains he would make in the suburbs compared to Trump. (Not that I really believe the suburban trend towards Democrats is entirely Trump's doing).
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538Electoral
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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2019, 10:25:09 PM »

It depends on if he won in 2012 of not. If he won in 2012 and the economy remained the same as current time, He would've EASILY beaten Clinton.

If he lost 2012, It'd a tough call but I'd still say Romney narrowly as Clinton was so toxic.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2019, 10:30:27 PM »



I feel this 338-200 map would've happened if Delecto won 2012 and the economy was good.



If Delecto lost in 2012 and is running for his first term again, It would've been a tight race but I think he still could've won this 273-265 map.
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