FL-UNF: Biden +5, Warren +3, Buttigieg -1, Harris -3

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 is reporting these numbers from the University of North Florida, but I can't find the actual data on their site.

Florida: UNF, Oct. 14-20, 646 RV

Biden 48, Trump 43
Warren 46, Trump 43
Trump 43, Buttigieg 42
Trump 44, Harris 41

Biden 49, Pence 38
Warren 46, Pence 40

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well, I hope for democrats that this poll is more accurate than the one of October 2018

What a bunch of geniuses : ''Gillum is clearly leading in the gubernatorial race" said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF.

UNF has an A- rating from 538.  Every pollster gets some results wrong occasionally.  The way you keep bringing up such misses is getting repetitive and tiresome.  Give it a rest; you've made the point.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well, I hope for democrats that this poll is more accurate than the one of October 2018

What a bunch of geniuses : ''Gillum is clearly leading in the gubernatorial race" said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF.

UNF has an A- rating from 538.  Every pollster gets some results wrong occasionally.  The way you keep bringing up such misses is getting repetitive and tiresome.  Give it a rest; you've made the point.

You have to put things in perspective.

And no ; when a pollster consistently overestimates the candidates of one political party, it's not a ''occasional miss''

You cited one miss from UNF, in a race that many pollsters got wrong.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fixed the thread title (Harris is -3, not -1).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Safe R. FL polls always way oversample dems. Trump is probably up 1-3 on Biden 4-7 on Warren, Pete

Bad samples can occur, but you're suggesting 7 points worth.  Not impossible, but it's a lot.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Safe R. FL polls always way oversample dems. Trump is probably up 1-3 on Biden 4-7 on Warren, Pete

Bad samples can occur, but you're suggesting 7 points worth.  Not impossible, but it's a lot.

In my opinion the polls in FL were so bad in the 2018 you have to assume unless Dems are up 5-8 pts in polls that Trump is ahead.

You’re too optimistic, I think. But yeah, Trump would probably defeat Biden by 2 and Warren by 4.

Certainly possible, but why would you assume Biden will do worse than Clinton in Florida?  Trump's margin over her was 1.2%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Only the Buttigieg number looks accurate. Though it's a bit friendly to Trump, I'll give it a pass since they're not using decimals.

I get why people can think a poll is generally off in one direction or another.  But how can you reasonably think that the same poll is off for every candidate except one?