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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  FL-UNF: Biden +5, Warren +3, Buttigieg -1, Harris -3
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Author Topic: FL-UNF: Biden +5, Warren +3, Buttigieg -1, Harris -3  (Read 1261 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: October 22, 2019, 08:23:43 am »
« edited: October 22, 2019, 10:21:39 am by GeorgiaModerate »

538 is reporting these numbers from the University of North Florida, but I can't find the actual data on their site.

Florida: UNF, Oct. 14-20, 646 RV

Biden 48, Trump 43
Warren 46, Trump 43
Trump 43, Buttigieg 42
Trump 44, Harris 41

Biden 49, Pence 38
Warren 46, Pence 40
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2019, 08:26:42 am »

Lean D, FL is gonna vote for the Democratic nominee
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ajc0918
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2019, 08:31:51 am »

Trump only getting 42-44% of the vote should concern him. Especially because the party split of this poll skews slightly GOP.
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President Biden
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2019, 08:35:01 am »

Clearly Safe R. /s
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2019, 08:39:33 am »

I'm very cautious with FL polls and will be right to the end of the race. In 2018, the polls were way too Dem friendly. Tossup or tilt R for now, even with Biden.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2019, 08:50:06 am »

Well, I hope for democrats that this poll is more accurate than the one of October 2018 (the one which had Gillum leading by 6)

What a bunch of geniuses : ''Gillum is clearly leading in the gubernatorial race" said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2019, 08:52:19 am »

Well, I hope for democrats that this poll is more accurate than the one of October 2018

What a bunch of geniuses : ''Gillum is clearly leading in the gubernatorial race" said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF.

UNF has an A- rating from 538.  Every pollster gets some results wrong occasionally.  The way you keep bringing up such misses is getting repetitive and tiresome.  Give it a rest; you've made the point.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2019, 08:58:21 am »

Well, I hope for democrats that this poll is more accurate than the one of October 2018

What a bunch of geniuses : ''Gillum is clearly leading in the gubernatorial race" said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF.

UNF has an A- rating from 538.  Every pollster gets some results wrong occasionally.  The way you keep bringing up such misses is getting repetitive and tiresome.  Give it a rest; you've made the point.

You have to put things in perspective.

And no ; when a pollster consistently overestimates the candidates of one political party, it's not a ''occasional miss''
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2019, 08:58:48 am »

The Latino community is mostly Puerto Rican and Cuban, whom arent always reliably Democratic, like Mexicans in SW. Latinos may tip the scale towards Biden; as a result of Porto Rico statehood being fully considered now. Also, Trump outperformed expectations in FL, in 2016, Marco Rubio was on the ballot, which gave Trump a 2% bump, margin of difference in the state.
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Cinemark
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« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2019, 09:06:59 am »

Well, I hope for democrats that this poll is more accurate than the one of October 2018

What a bunch of geniuses : ''Gillum is clearly leading in the gubernatorial race" said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF.

UNF has an A- rating from 538.  Every pollster gets some results wrong occasionally.  The way you keep bringing up such misses is getting repetitive and tiresome.  Give it a rest; you've made the point.

You have to put things in perspective.

And no ; when a pollster consistently overestimates the candidates of one political party, it's not a ''occasional miss''

What your doing is dismissing polls you dont like. Alot of pollsters missed Florida last year, doesnt mean we should discount them because of that.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #10 on: October 22, 2019, 09:21:05 am »

Well, I hope for democrats that this poll is more accurate than the one of October 2018

What a bunch of geniuses : ''Gillum is clearly leading in the gubernatorial race" said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF.

UNF has an A- rating from 538.  Every pollster gets some results wrong occasionally.  The way you keep bringing up such misses is getting repetitive and tiresome.  Give it a rest; you've made the point.

You have to put things in perspective.

And no ; when a pollster consistently overestimates the candidates of one political party, it's not a ''occasional miss''

You cited one miss from UNF, in a race that many pollsters got wrong.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #11 on: October 22, 2019, 09:22:30 am »

Florida is at least Likely R. After 2018, I don't see the Dems winning it.
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slothdem
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« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2019, 09:43:54 am »

If the election was held today Trump would lose Florida (and MI/WI/PA and AZ, and maybe even NC and IA). It doesn't mean that will be the case next November, but that's the state of the race at this point.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #13 on: October 22, 2019, 10:22:01 am »

Fixed the thread title (Harris is -3, not -1).
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #14 on: October 22, 2019, 10:46:52 am »

Well, I hope for democrats that this poll is more accurate than the one of October 2018

What a bunch of geniuses : ''Gillum is clearly leading in the gubernatorial race" said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF.

UNF has an A- rating from 538.  Every pollster gets some results wrong occasionally.  The way you keep bringing up such misses is getting repetitive and tiresome.  Give it a rest; you've made the point.

You have to put things in perspective.

And no ; when a pollster consistently overestimates the candidates of one political party, it's not a ''occasional miss''

You cited one miss from UNF, in a race that many pollsters got wrong.

Okay, let's take a look :

FL-SEN 2018 :
March 2017 poll : Nelson +6
October 2017 poll : Nelson +1
February 2018 poll : Nelson +6
September 2018 poll : Tied
October 2018 : Nelson +1
Average : Nelson +2.8

FL-GOV 2018 :
September 2018 poll : Gillum +4
October 2018 poll : Gillum +6
Average : Gillum +5


FL-PRES 2016 :
Early October 2016 poll : Clinton +7
Late October 2016 poll : Clinton +2
Average : Clinton +4.5

See a pattern ?
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Cinemark
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« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2019, 11:10:01 am »

Well, I hope for democrats that this poll is more accurate than the one of October 2018

What a bunch of geniuses : ''Gillum is clearly leading in the gubernatorial race" said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF.

UNF has an A- rating from 538.  Every pollster gets some results wrong occasionally.  The way you keep bringing up such misses is getting repetitive and tiresome.  Give it a rest; you've made the point.

You have to put things in perspective.

And no ; when a pollster consistently overestimates the candidates of one political party, it's not a ''occasional miss''

You cited one miss from UNF, in a race that many pollsters got wrong.

Okay, let's take a look :

FL-SEN 2018 :
March 2017 poll : Nelson +6
October 2017 poll : Nelson +1
February 2018 poll : Nelson +6
September 2018 poll : Tied
October 2018 : Nelson +1
Average : Nelson +2.8

FL-GOV 2018 :
September 2018 poll : Gillum +4
October 2018 poll : Gillum +6
Average : Gillum +5


FL-PRES 2016 :
Early October 2016 poll : Clinton +7
Late October 2016 poll : Clinton +2
Average : Clinton +4.5

See a pattern ?

Not to be rude, but its dumb to average an entire poll cycle and compare it to the final results. The only race they really failed in was the Governor race in 2018.

Their final presidential poll and Senate poll results were both within the MoE.
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Chocolate Thunder
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« Reply #16 on: October 22, 2019, 11:15:30 am »

Well, I hope for democrats that this poll is more accurate than the one of October 2018

What a bunch of geniuses : ''Gillum is clearly leading in the gubernatorial race" said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF.

UNF has an A- rating from 538.  Every pollster gets some results wrong occasionally.  The way you keep bringing up such misses is getting repetitive and tiresome.  Give it a rest; you've made the point.

You have to put things in perspective.

And no ; when a pollster consistently overestimates the candidates of one political party, it's not a ''occasional miss''

You cited one miss from UNF, in a race that many pollsters got wrong.

Okay, let's take a look :

FL-SEN 2018 :
March 2017 poll : Nelson +6
October 2017 poll : Nelson +1
February 2018 poll : Nelson +6
September 2018 poll : Tied
October 2018 : Nelson +1
Average : Nelson +2.8

FL-GOV 2018 :
September 2018 poll : Gillum +4
October 2018 poll : Gillum +6
Average : Gillum +5


FL-PRES 2016 :
Early October 2016 poll : Clinton +7
Late October 2016 poll : Clinton +2
Average : Clinton +4.5

See a pattern ?

Not to be rude, but its dumb to average an entire poll cycle and compare it to the final results. The only race they really failed in was the Governor race in 2018.

Their final presidential poll and Senate poll results were both within the MoE.

Bardley Effect? People lie to pollsters down there? Old people are notoriously easy to poll. The only thing I see going on is that Democrats stay home in Florida.
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krb08
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« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2019, 11:15:49 am »

You can trust that if Biden/Warren win Florida (which, despite Atlas' insistence, can easily happen), it's not going to be by that wide of a margin. Florida will be decided by less than 2 points either way.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2019, 11:19:39 am »

Well, I hope for democrats that this poll is more accurate than the one of October 2018

What a bunch of geniuses : ''Gillum is clearly leading in the gubernatorial race" said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF.

UNF has an A- rating from 538.  Every pollster gets some results wrong occasionally.  The way you keep bringing up such misses is getting repetitive and tiresome.  Give it a rest; you've made the point.

You have to put things in perspective.

And no ; when a pollster consistently overestimates the candidates of one political party, it's not a ''occasional miss''

You cited one miss from UNF, in a race that many pollsters got wrong.

Okay, let's take a look :

FL-SEN 2018 :
March 2017 poll : Nelson +6
October 2017 poll : Nelson +1
February 2018 poll : Nelson +6
September 2018 poll : Tied
October 2018 : Nelson +1
Average : Nelson +2.8

FL-GOV 2018 :
September 2018 poll : Gillum +4
October 2018 poll : Gillum +6
Average : Gillum +5


FL-PRES 2016 :
Early October 2016 poll : Clinton +7
Late October 2016 poll : Clinton +2
Average : Clinton +4.5

See a pattern ?

Not to be rude, but its dumb to average an entire poll cycle and compare it to the final results. The only race they really failed in was the Governor race in 2018.

Their final presidential poll and Senate poll results were both within the MoE.

The point is that every poll done by the UNF for these three major races had the democratic candidate leading by varying margins, even if in the end democrats lost every race listed above.
UMF is consistently overestimating democratic candidates, thatís the point I wanted to make
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Chocolate Thunder
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« Reply #19 on: October 22, 2019, 11:37:58 am »

You can trust that if Biden/Warren win Florida (which, despite Atlas' insistence, can easily happen), it's not going to be by that wide of a margin. Florida will be decided by less than 2 points either way.

Trump can run away with it if he hit his ceiling. Just like how W got within maybe 2% of his ceiling in 2004.
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SN2903
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« Reply #20 on: October 22, 2019, 02:27:31 pm »

Safe R. FL polls always way oversample dems. Trump is probably up 1-3 on Biden 4-7 on Warren, Pete
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GP270watch
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« Reply #21 on: October 22, 2019, 02:36:48 pm »

Nobody is winning Florida by 7% unless Trump totally implodes and gets a landslide victory against him or his memory.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #22 on: October 22, 2019, 02:45:39 pm »

Safe R. FL polls always way oversample dems. Trump is probably up 1-3 on Biden 4-7 on Warren, Pete

Bad samples can occur, but you're suggesting 7 points worth.  Not impossible, but it's a lot.
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SN2903
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« Reply #23 on: October 22, 2019, 02:52:34 pm »

Safe R. FL polls always way oversample dems. Trump is probably up 1-3 on Biden 4-7 on Warren, Pete

Bad samples can occur, but you're suggesting 7 points worth.  Not impossible, but it's a lot.
In my opinion the polls in FL were so bad in the 2018 you have to assume unless Dems are up 5-8 pts in polls that Trump is ahead.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #24 on: October 22, 2019, 02:59:02 pm »

FL isnt a tipping pt state, Wiz is, but its still a purple Sunbelt state, with Latinos who want PR statehood.
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