Parliament of Recommendations

[Antonio the Sixth]

Taking all the posts since my official "return" yields a 381-seat parliament. Just a bit less than the cube-root-rule size for a parliament for a country with the population of Italy or France.

Socialist: 61
Green: 41
Democrat: 135
Other: 42
Independent: 35
N/A: 11
Libertarian: 7
Republican: 48
Constitution: 1

A D/G/S coalitions enjoys a comfortable majority with 237 seats (62%). In addition, there are a quite a few leftists among the other categories. I count 15 or so among the Others, a half-dozen among Independents, and even a full dozen among Republicans (mostly that's because Mr. X has a Republican avatar right now). There are also 5 potential DINOs who might be unreliable (mainly Green Line and Santander). So, in a parliament that's loose on discipline, that all adds up to a left-wing policy majority of 265 or so (70%). There are probably fewer (55% or so) "true leftists", since many of the Democrats are somewhat moderate, but even those left-wing enough to be counted on for most policies.

I could see someone like Gass, LabourJersey or RaphaelDLG as the Prime Minister, with Nathan as DPM. Progressive Realist chairs the Democratic caucus, Kalwejt chairs the Socialist caucus, and Halifax chairs the Green caucus. On the opposition side, Kongress chairs the Republican caucus, Ilfromnj chairs the Libertarian caucus, and RoboWop is the lone member of the Constitution Caucus.

[Antonio the Sixth]

All right, time for a new one. Went back 3 weeks (to February 5, or 252 posts). Got a full 753 recommends, allowing me to build a parliament the size of the EP pre-Brexit. Here are the results:


Socialist Party: 171

Green Party: 21
 - Leftist: 20
 - Conserva-green: 1

Democratic Party: 369
 - Progressive: 273
 - Moderate: 96

Others: 58
 - Left-leaning: 31
 - Ambiguous: 26
 - Right-leading: 1

Independents: 85
 - Left-leaning: 44
 - Centrist/Unclear: 33
 - Right-leaning: 8

Unknown: 11
 - Left-leaning: 6
 - Unclear: 5

Libertarian Party: 8
 - LINO: 5
 - Other: 3

Republican Party: 27
 - Conservative: 11
 - Christian Democratic: 5
 - Populist: 2
 - RINO: 9

Constitution Party: 3


Compared to my previous one, Democrats have made major gained, going to just over a third to nearly an absolute majority. Socialists have also made gains, but Greens collapsed, so that the total share of leftist parties dropped slightly (26.8% to 25.5%). Right-wing representation collapsed, though, not just in percentage but in absolute numbers. At this point, the combined right-wing parties make up just 5%. Indies, others and no-avs also declined slightly from 23% to 20.5%. So, overall, a more partisan makeup, probably due to the fact that my recent posts have been largely focused on US policymaking.

Anyway, with this numbers, Democrats could probably safely run a minority government supported by liberal-leaning indies. Socialists and greens would form the main opposition bloc.

Prime Minister: Bruce Joel (Dem)

Leader of the Opposition: Alfred F. Jomes (Soc)

Socialist Party Floor Leader: Nathan
Green Party Floor Leader: Estrella
Democratic Party Floor Leader: Ishan
Others Caucus Floor Leader: Parochial Boy
Independent Caucus Floor Leader: PR
Unknown Affiliation Caucus Floor Leader: Tara Gilesbie
Libertarian Party Floor Leader: Santander (lol)
Republican Party Floor Leader: Joseph Cao
Constitution Party Floor Leader: TJ

Ideologically, there are about 506 left-leaning members, an over two-thirds supermajority. There are at most just 28 which can reliably be identified as right-wing.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Went back to November 10 to get a 750-seat parliament (over 279 posts).

Socialist Party: 181 (+10)
 - Revolutionary Faction: 17
 - Primitivist Faction: 15
 - Social Democratic Faction: 107
 - Communitarian Faction: 42

Green Party: 37 (+16)
 - Leftist Faction: 36
 - Conservative Faction: 1

Democratic Party: 257 (-112)
 - Progressive Faction: 169
 - Liberal Faction: 85
 - Conservative Faction: 3

Others: 76 (+18)
 - Leftist Faction: 17
 - Progressive Faction: 24
 - Unaligned: 33
 - Conservative Faction: 2

Independents: 143 (+58)
 - Leftist Faction: 24
 - Progressive Faction: 83
 - Liberal Faction: 14
 - Unaligned: 19
 - Conservative Faction: 3

Unknown: 6 (-5)
 - Progressive Faction: 1
 - Conservative Faction: 5

Libertarian Party: 16 (+8)
 - Libertarian Faction: 12
 - Leftist Faction: 2
 - Unaligned: 2

Republican Party: 32 (+5)
 - Conservative Faction: 20
 - Communitarian Faction: 5
 - Neoliberal Faction: 2
 - Progressive Faction: 3
 - Unaligned: 2

Constitution Party: 2 (-1)


Democrats suffered a major setback, falling from almost half of the seats to barely a third as the distance from the US election and the mounting failures of the Biden administration encouraged more heterodox thoughts. Some of these losses benefited the left, with the Green Party in particular almost doubling its representation while the Socialists also added a few seats. This leaves the organized leftist presence in parliament at 29%, its highest result to date. Similarly, the right-wing opposition also added a dozen seats, allowing them to rack up a total of 50. The biggest gains by far went to independents and minor parties, which gained 76 seats to represent a total of 219, just 1 seat ahead of the leftist block. Of course, many of these independent and minor party figures are themselves ideologically aligned to either the leftist parties or the Democrats, which is very likely to influence government formation.

Adding to the contingents of Socialists and Greens, 41 independents and minor party members are ideological leftists, and those plus a few left-libertarians (but excluding a right-wing Green) brings the contingent of ideological leftists to 260, over a third of the Assembly. If these leftists work together, they can be on an even footing with the Democratic party's 257 seats. However, Democrats themselves are internally divided between a progressive wing, ideologically amiable to a broadly social-democratic agenda, and a more moderate wing skittish about massive social programs. Both wings can find ideological allies among independents and minor parties, but the progressives are especially well positioned on this front. Overall, the 169 progressive Democrats can count on 111 ideological allies from outside the party, bringing their total numbers to 280 and making them the ideological cornerstone of this Assembly. Liberals, meanwhile, can only bring their total strength to 99. Finally, there are 56 representatives whose ideological alignments are ambiguous or idiosyncratic, and 55 right-leaning ones (including right-libertarians and right-communitarians).

In such a fragmented political situation, government formation would be difficult, but the only faction in the position to pull it off would have to be the progressive Democrats. While a coalition agreement with the Socialists would be the most likely to guarantee political stability, such a deal would be likely to splinter the Democrats internally, as the liberal faction would resent their influence. Instead, they are likely to prefer a minority government supported by progressives and liberals from outside the main party. Such a government would have an incredibly slim 379-seat majority, meaning that just 5 members could potentially topple it. On the other hand, it could likely be able to find support for its policies, alternatively, from the leftist parties or from the more ideologically unaligned members.

Prime Minister: Fubart Solman (Dem)
Deputy Prime Minister: Runeghost (Dem)

Leader of the Opposition: Alfred F. Jones (Soc)

Socialist Party Floor Leader: Nathan
Green Party Floor Leader: Estrella & Lord Halifax (co-chairs)
Democratic Party Floor Leader: Khuzifenq
Others Caucus Floor Leader: Skunk
Independent Caucus Floor Leader: Abdullah
Unknown Affiliation Caucus Floor Leader: Grumps
Libertarian Party Floor Leader: Ilfromnj
Republican Party Floor Leader: Conservatopia
Constitution Party Floor Leader: Cassius


In addition, I have added an upper house for which each recommended post gets just one seat (so strongly reducing the outsize weight that a bunch of 15+ recommend posts have on these numbers). The way the seat gets assigned is based on who I estimate to be the "median" recommender, although in some cases I had to make arbitrary choices about who counted as the "median". The result is a 173-member Senate. However, it has no impact on confidence and supply, and can only delay passage of legislation.

Socialist Party: 35
 - Revolutionary Faction: 1
 - Social Democratic Faction: 24
 - Communitarian Faction: 8
 - Primitivist Faction: 2

Green Party: 5
 - Leftist Faction: 5

Democratic Party: 77
 - Progressive Faction: 56
 - Liberal Faction: 21

Others: 16
 - Leftist Faction: 2
 - Progressive Faction: 8
 - Unaligned: 6

Independents: 34
 - Leftist Faction: 3
 - Progressive Faction: 27
 - Liberal Faction: 1
 - Unaligned: 2
 - Conservative Faction: 1

Unknown: 2
 - Progressive Faction: 1
 - Conservative Faction: 1

Libertarian Party: 3
 - Libertarian Faction: 3

Republican Party: 1
 - Conservative Faction: 1

Constitution Party: 0


This Senate is unlikely to give the Democratic minority government much trouble - indeed, they might wish they had to answer to it instead of the lower house. They already control almost 45% of the seats by themselves, and support from progressives not aligned with major parties brings their total contingent to 114, nearly a two-thirds majority. Indeed, progressives don't even need the liberals for a majority here, as they have 92 seats by themselves. So we can expect Government legislation to sail smoothly in the Senate, even as it faces bitter wrangling in the Assembly.