North Macedonia elections and politics (presidential & legislative elections May 8 2024)

[bigic]

Zoran Zaev, the PM of North Macedonia from Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM, PES member) resigns, saying that "the EU didn't deliver what they promised" and that they made a "historic mistake" by refusing to start accession negotiations with North Macedonia. He wants "early elections at the earliest possible date".

https://mobile.twitter.com/Zoran_Zaev/status/1185499763933896705

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Gruevski in some villa near Budapest probably is now celebrating. Thanks France.

[Omega21]

Such a shame.

I do have my long term concerns regarding Macedonia over the next few decades though. As the Albanian/Macedonian ratio grows, inter-ethnic relations could deteriorate, guess we'll have to wait and see.

[mgop]

Gruevski in some villa near Budapest probably is now celebrating. Thanks France.

*macron

[urutzizu]

France was right to refuse. It is not smart to allow Countries in to the EU that score worse than even India or China on the Corruption perception index, just to outflank Russia. If you want half the EU to be ruled by Orbans then take in States that obviously don't have a consolidated democracy and rule of law. You will kill the EU then, however.

[mgop]

France was right to refuse. It is not smart to allow Countries in to the EU that score worse than even India or China on the Corruption perception index, just to outflank Russia. If you want half the EU to be ruled by Orbans then take in States that obviously don't have a consolidated democracy and rule of law. You will kill the EU then, however.

when the west destroyed yugoslavia, they promissed eu membership for all those countries. so now there's no way back, either help or let russia rule the region.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, if we're gonna have Hungary and Romania in, I really don't see what's the rationale for rejecting Macedonia.

[urutzizu]

Yeah, if we're gonna have Hungary and Romania in, I really don't see what's the rationale for rejecting Macedonia.

Thats the point. To prevent more Hungaries and Romanias undermining EU values and foreign policy. Also North Macedonia is considerably more corrupt than Romania (and Hungary). Not to even speak of Albania.

[EastAnglianLefty]

France will be in a position to lecture this when there's a former president there aren't credible corruption allegations about.

[bigic]

PM Zoran Zaev (SDSM, S&D) and leader of the opposition Hristijan Mickoski (VMRO-DPMNE, EPP) are meeting today to determine the date of the early election. Both say they want a temporary technical government including both of the main parties (as outlined in the Pržino agreement) to be formed 100 days before holding an election.

https://sdk.mk/index.php/makedonija/zaev-i-mitskoski-denes-ke-go-dogovaraat-datumot-za-predvremeni-izbori-so-tehnichka-vlada/

[Zinneke]

France will be in a position to lecture this when there's a former president there aren't credible corruption allegations about.

Apples and oranges.

[Omega21]

Yeah, if we're gonna have Hungary and Romania in, I really don't see what's the rationale for rejecting Macedonia.

Thats the point. To prevent more Hungaries and Romanias undermining EU values and foreign policy. Also North Macedonia is considerably more corrupt than Romania (and Hungary). Not to even speak of Albania.

Yeah, comparing Hungary to Albania, NM or Kosovo is not really realistic.

Hungary is far more advanced in every economic aspect, and even comparing it to Romania:

http://hungaryassistance.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Screen-Shot-2016-04-01-at-2.22.18-PM-1024x709.png

http://i.imgur.com/udrTlTM.jpg

(Embed not working for some reason)

[PSOL]

Well the likely PM of Kosovo is trashing the EU’s decision right now

[bigic]

The final date, after delays due to the COVID-19 epidemic, is Wednesday, July 15.

There are 6 constituencies in North Macedonia, electing 20 MPs each by proportional representation (total 120). One or more MPs representing the diaspora would be elected too if there is enough turnout (in 2016 nobody was elected from diaspora).
Map of constituencies (from Wikipedia):


There are 15 lists, but some of them don't contest every constituency. Lists including parties in the current parliament are in bold.
1. Democratic Party of Albanians (in every constituency except 4)
2. Democrats
3. Coalition "We Can" (SDSM (PES), Besa etc.)
4. The Left
5. Alliance for Albanians and Alternative
6. Voice for Macedonia (in every constituency except 6)
7. Civic Democratic Union (in every constituency except 6)
8. Integra - Macedonian Conservative Party
9. Democratic Union for Integration (ethnic Albanian)
10. SDU Skopje (in every constituency except 6) - campaigning as "Macedonian Concept", not "SDU Skopje"
11. United Macedonia
12. MORO - Workers' Party
13. People's Party of Roma (only in constituency 2)
14. VMRO-DPMNE (EPP) and Coalition "Renewal of Macedonia"
15. Your Party (only in constituencies 1, 2 and 5)

Besa is AFAIK the first ethnic Albanian party in electoral coalition with a national party. Ethnic Albanian parties usually contest elections independently, while the parties of smaller minorities (Roma, Turks, Serbs etc.) usually contest elections in coalition with national parties.

VMRO-DPMNE's traditional colour is red, and SDSM's was blue until Zoran Zaev became the leader of the party. Under Zaev's leadership SDSM changed its logo and colour scheme to more closely resemble European social democratic parties, so both of the major parties are now red.

Candidate lists by constituency (in Macedonian): https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hqw4VxInSu076IGiekg_-ce6JW0QIt1F/view

[bigic]

The polling stations closed at 21:00 CET. Turnout at 20:30 CET is 50,84%, which is lower than final turnout in 2016, but higher than final turnout in both rounds the 2019 presidential election.
Results should be there: https://rezultati.sec.mk/

[bigic]

The Electoral Commission's website is now down. Last results I've seen show a slight advantage for the SDSM-led coalition.

Igor Janušev of VMRO-DPMNE claims that his party leads by about 7-8 MPs based on results from 20% of the polling stations.
https://plusinfo.mk/anushev-pobeduvame-imame-prednost-od-nad-10-000-glasovi-toa-e-sedum-do-osum-pratenici/

And Ljupčo Nikolovski of SDSM claims that his party is leading
https://mms.mk/154673/мирен-достоинствен-и-здравствено-без/

[mgop]

DIK said that first results will be no later than 11 pm, but still nothing...

[mgop]

After 65% counted:

SDSM 36,78
VMRO 35,75
DUI 10,31
AA 8,13

[PSOL]

Will any of the Albanian parties align with VMRO-DPMN?

[bigic]

The Electoral Commision website still doesn't work, so they are now streaming the results on YouTube:
https://youtu.be/0EzshzDdGyY

[resad]

From Europe Elects twitter

SDUM 37%
IMRO-DPMNU 36%
DUI 10%
AA 8%
Left 4%
Integra-MCP 1,4%
DPA 1.3%

[mgop]

Is the SDSM & DUI coalition most realistic? What are the odds for Albanian prime minister?

[bigic]

Seat projection (3350 out of 3480 polling statios)

SDSM coalition 45 seats
VMRO-DPMNE coalition 44 seats
DUI 16 seats
AA-A 12 seats
Levica (Left) 2 seats
DPA 1 seat
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kk3khIz-Ivk

[PSOL]

Nice growth for Levica, especially under a FPTP system.

[Beagle]

Nice growth for Levica, especially under a FPTP system.

What FPTP system?

With 3421/3480 precincts in, the number of MP is projected as follows:

SDSM coalition - 46 (-3 compared to 2016)
VMRO-DPMNE coalition - 44 (-7*)
DUI - 15 (+5)
AA/A - 12 (+9*)
DPA - 1 (-1)
Levica - 2 (+2)

* not taking into account post-election defections/party switches

Is the SDSM & DUI coalition most realistic? What are the odds for Albanian prime minister?

Likeliest scenario for now is a haggling over the more, er, malleable MPs (mostly from the minor parties in both coalitions, as well as from the lower reaches of the AA/A list). An Albanian prime minister is out of the question. A SDSM + DUI coalition is possible, but it will take a few months of gridlock to get there.