KY/MS/LA counties to watch on election night

[MT Treasurer]

Thoughts?

KY

Hardin, Oldham, Kenton, Warren, Campbell: If Bevin is winning all of these counties by mid- to high-single digits, he’s probably the slight favorite. If he’s winning at least two of them by double digits, it’s pretty much over. If he’s losing at least two of them, it’s a legitimate Tossup. If he’s losing in all of them, he’s the underdog.

Bourbon County: If Bevin can’t flip this one, he’s in big trouble. He probably needs to win it by double digits too.

Jefferson County + Fayette County: Beshear probably needs to win the former by 30+ points and the latter by 25+ points.

MS

Forrest County: Clearly a must-win for Hood, and he needs to win it convincingly too.

Madison County: Almost certainly a must-win for Hood unless I’m seriously underestimating his rural/NE MS appeal.

DeSoto County + Harrison County: If Reeves isn’t winning here by double digits, he’s probably losing.

Lee County: If Hood is losing here by 15 or less, he’s probably winning a majority statewide.

LA

Jefferson Parish: Anything less than a 6-point win for JBE pretty much spells doom for him.

St. Tammany Parish: If JBE is held under 40% here, he probably loses narrowly.

Calcasieu Parish: If JBE is winning here or coming very close, it’s over.

[walleye26]

I will especially be checking out DeSoto and Madison in MS for the margins and Jefferson and St. Tammany in LA as well. I personally don’t know much about KY so I will refrain from making any judgments.

[Del Tachi]

DeSoto and Madison should both be about 56/42 wins for Reeves if Hood is going to win (this is pretty inline with CHS vs Espy in 2018), and then he needs to win Forrest and keep Lee somewhere around 57/41.  Hood also needs to be >60% (or close) in Oktibbeha, >55% in Lafayette and at least 78/21 in Hinds. 

[jamestroll]

Thoughts?

LA

Jefferson Parish: Anything less than a 6-point win for JBE pretty much spells doom for him.

St. Tammany Parish: If JBE is held under 40% here, he probably loses narrowly.

Calcasieu Parish: If JBE is winning here or coming very close, it’s over.

Right now, and I may change my predictions, my guesses for parishes in Louisiana are:

Jefferson Parish: Edwards 57 to 43 Rispone

St Charles Parish: 52 Edwards to 48 Rispone

St Tammy Parish: 58 Rispone to 42 Edwards

St Bernard Parish: 55 Edwards to 45 Rispone

Plaquemines Parish: 51 Edwards to 49 Rispone

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Doesn't matter, Republicans are winning all 3

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GoP are favored to win MS, but Bevin and Rispone are only tied with Dems, Bevin lost the debate as well, gives Dems hope

[Politician]

Doesn't matter, Republicans are winning all 3

Someone tell ShadowOfTheWave that socks aren't allowed.

Anyway:
KY: Campbell/Kenton (Beshear needs these to win), Woodford (if Beshear isn't winning this easily he's losing)
LA: Jefferson (Edwards needs around 54% here), St. Bernard (Edwards needs to win this by at least 4 points)
MS: Madison (Hood needs it to win), Rankin (Reeves needs to win here by at least 20 points)

[Frenchrepublican]

Doesn't matter, Republicans are winning all 3

Someone tell ShadowOfTheWave that socks aren't allowed.

Anyway:
KY: Campbell/Kenton (Beshear needs these to win), Woodford (if Beshear isn't winning this easily he's losing)
LA: Jefferson (Edwards needs around 54% here), St. Bernard (Edwards needs to win this by at least 4 points)
MS: Madison (Hood needs it to win), Rankin (Reeves needs to win here by at least 20 points)

Edwards need to win more than 54% in Jefferson county if he wants to be re-elected

[Gustaf]

Doesn't matter, Republicans are winning all 3

Someone tell ShadowOfTheWave that socks aren't allowed.

Anyway:
KY: Campbell/Kenton (Beshear needs these to win), Woodford (if Beshear isn't winning this easily he's losing)
LA: Jefferson (Edwards needs around 54% here), St. Bernard (Edwards needs to win this by at least 4 points)
MS: Madison (Hood needs it to win), Rankin (Reeves needs to win here by at least 20 points)

Edwards need to win more than 54% in Jefferson county if he wants to be re-elected

What makes you say that? He won Jefferson Parish by only a point last time and Clinton lost if by 15 while losing the state by 20.

It's true Jefferson ran 6% ahead of his statewide result in the jungle primary but that's still not wildly off from 4%.

[Skill and Chance]

Doesn't matter, Republicans are winning all 3

Someone tell ShadowOfTheWave that socks aren't allowed.

Anyway:
KY: Campbell/Kenton (Beshear needs these to win), Woodford (if Beshear isn't winning this easily he's losing)
LA: Jefferson (Edwards needs around 54% here), St. Bernard (Edwards needs to win this by at least 4 points)
MS: Madison (Hood needs it to win), Rankin (Reeves needs to win here by at least 20 points)

Edwards need to win more than 54% in Jefferson county if he wants to be re-elected

What makes you say that? He won Jefferson Parish by only a point last time and Clinton lost if by 15 while losing the state by 20.

It's true Jefferson ran 6% ahead of his statewide result in the jungle primary but that's still not wildly off from 4%.

At this point, it's pretty much a given that everything west of Baton Rouge will trend hard against him vs. 2015.  Having the best Dem performance since the Dixiecrat era in the eastern, urbanized part of the state is mandatory, not optional for him to win.  This is especially true in Jefferson as Vitter was from there and likely had a substantial hometown vote.  JBE probably needs to be close to 60% there. 

[lfromnj]

Doesn't matter, Republicans are winning all 3

Someone tell ShadowOfTheWave that socks aren't allowed.

Anyway:
KY: Campbell/Kenton (Beshear needs these to win), Woodford (if Beshear isn't winning this easily he's losing)
LA: Jefferson (Edwards needs around 54% here), St. Bernard (Edwards needs to win this by at least 4 points)
MS: Madison (Hood needs it to win), Rankin (Reeves needs to win here by at least 20 points)

Edwards need to win more than 54% in Jefferson county if he wants to be re-elected

What makes you say that? He won Jefferson Parish by only a point last time and Clinton lost if by 15 while losing the state by 20.

It's true Jefferson ran 6% ahead of his statewide result in the jungle primary but that's still not wildly off from 4%.

At this point, it's pretty much a given that everything west of Baton Rouge will trend hard against him vs. 2015.  Having the best Dem performance since the Dixiecrat era in the eastern, urbanized part of the state is mandatory, not optional for him to win.  This is especially true in Jefferson as Vitter was from there and likely had a substantial hometown vote.  JBE probably needs to be close to 60% there. 

Well Caddo might not. I think JBE needs to focus on Lafayeette too.

[Xing]

Honestly, I'd say that margins in many counties are just as important as who wins them. Edwards could conceivably get BTFO in rural Louisiana but still survive if he gets really strong numbers out of the New Orleans area, though depending on how badly he loses rural Louisiana, even 55-56% in Jefferson might not be quite enough to save him. In MS, I could see DeSoto being closer than expected even in a relatively comfortable win for Reeves (assuming he does well in NE MS.)

As for KY, maybe Beshear can keep it within single digits (high single digits, that is) if he comes close in counties like Oldham and Kenton. It's not going to be enough to offset the Bevinslide in rural KY, though.

[Frenchrepublican]

Doesn't matter, Republicans are winning all 3

Someone tell ShadowOfTheWave that socks aren't allowed.

Anyway:
KY: Campbell/Kenton (Beshear needs these to win), Woodford (if Beshear isn't winning this easily he's losing)
LA: Jefferson (Edwards needs around 54% here), St. Bernard (Edwards needs to win this by at least 4 points)
MS: Madison (Hood needs it to win), Rankin (Reeves needs to win here by at least 20 points)

Edwards need to win more than 54% in Jefferson county if he wants to be re-elected

What makes you say that? He won Jefferson Parish by only a point last time and Clinton lost if by 15 while losing the state by 20.

It's true Jefferson ran 6% ahead of his statewide result in the jungle primary but that's still not wildly off from 4%.

With Edwards collapsing in rural areas, winning Jefferson by double digits is a must for him.

[TDAS04]

If Rispone isn’t getting well over 80% in La Salle Parish, he’s probably not winning.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It would be hilarious if Bevin lost Campbell County, but does anyone really expect him to do worse in Campbell County than statewide?

[slothdem]

It would be hilarious if Bevin lost Campbell County, but does anyone really expect him to do worse in Campbell County than statewide?

Yes? It's 5 points left of the state. I don't see a Democratic path to the majority in Kentucky without both Campbell and Kenton.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Any last takes on which counties to keep an eye on tomorrow?

Elliott County, obs. Atlas will declare it a moral victory if Beshear somehow wins it even if/when he gets annhilated statewide

[walleye26]

My final predictions: Bevin wins 51-47, Reeves wins 53-46.

[gespb19]

DeSoto and Madison should both be about 56/42 wins for Reeves if Hood is going to win (this is pretty inline with CHS vs Espy in 2018), and then he needs to win Forrest and keep Lee somewhere around 57/41.  Hood also needs to be >60% (or close) in Oktibbeha, >55% in Lafayette and at least 78/21 in Hinds. 

Hood needs to win Madison.

He isn't winning the heavily-white ancestral Dem counties this time (39-44% would be an acceptable result). So he needs to get votes from somewhere.