Why Trump will win again.

[Illini Moderate]

1. If a moderate is nominated, people on the far left will whine and vote third party or not show up because by their logic, it’s better to have a President that you don’t agree with at all than one that you mostly agree with, but that just isn’t far left enough.

2. If a progressive such as Warren or Bernie is nominated they will lose the electoral college because moderates and independents simply do not like their ideas. The polling backs this up every time. M4A and the GND are very unpopular.

Democrats can’t stop fighting with each other and will throw the election to Trump once again. If you want Trump out of office vote for the Democratic candidate. Seems like a simple idea, but many can’t seem to grasp it

[SN2903]

It's a combination of a lack of United democratic party/a poor democratic party and the fact that Trump appeals to many groups - working class whites for example, that are pivotal in states needed to win the Electoral College.

[Politician]

It depends on how the Democratic nominee runs his/her campaign, assuming there isn't like a recession or something.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump would lose to any Democrat Warren/Castro surely wod lock in the 278 EC map; as a result of, Trump not making up ground in the Latino community. Population Growth in TX, AZ, CO, NV, CA, FL and HI, alone, among Latinos will secure the EC college. Bush W needed 44% of the Latino vote to get reelected and Reagan, being Catholic, made up ground, that Trump lacks in Latino community.

[Xing]

I'd still say it's an "if" whether or not Democrats who don't get their preferred candidate decide to be adults and accept the better choice or act whiny that they didn't get exactly what they want (this applies to BOTH progressive AND moderates, yeah, "both sides do it.") It also depends on the state of the economy, and how much turnout the Democratic candidate can get. For example, if Warren is the nominee and does lose a small percentage of "moderates", she could make up for that by getting very high turnout among progressives.

[Beet]

The percentage of people who won't vote for another candidate will prove to be smaller than expected. The online world distorts everything, and there are troublemakers and bots. In the real world, most progressives are quite rational.

Progressive ideas aren't as unpopular as conventional wisdom suggests -- particularly certain ones. Anti-corruption and campaign finance are popular across the political spectrum. A wealth tax is popular. Some sort of expanding health care dramatically is popular, especially if it doesn't require getting rid of private insurance. Upholding Roe v. Wade is popular (and remember, SCOTUS will decide that next summer).

[Hermit For Peace]

Why Trump won't win again: he's going to be impeached. He has done so many wrong things it's incredible he's still in office. Even Republicans are going against him. The guy is bad news.

[pbrower2a]

Americans have consistently shown disdain for any politician with a full-blown scandal when given the chance to re-elect or reject the politician. We have never seen a President with so abscessed a character as Donald Trump as President, so we have no indicator on that ground that Trump will win.


 

[I Can Now Die Happy]

That's the actual and the factual. I'll be doing my best to make sure as many progressives stay home or vote third party if a moderate is nominated, and I'll be doing my best to make sure as many moderates/independents feel turned off if a progressive is nominated.

[ProudModerate2]

1. If a moderate is nominated, people on the far left will whine and vote third party or not show up because by their logic, it’s better to have a President that you don’t agree with at all than one that you mostly agree with, but that just isn’t far left enough.

This is my greatest fear on why trump may/could win.

[Podgy the Bear]

1. If a moderate is nominated, people on the far left will whine and vote third party or not show up because by their logic, it’s better to have a President that you don’t agree with at all than one that you mostly agree with, but that just isn’t far left enough.

This is my greatest fear on why trump may/could win.

There are plenty of independent/Republican leaning voters who want Trump out that will more than make up for those on the far left who wouldn't vote Democrat if a moderate were nominated. 

[BlueSwan]

1. If a moderate is nominated, people on the far left will whine and vote third party or not show up because by their logic, it’s better to have a President that you don’t agree with at all than one that you mostly agree with, but that just isn’t far left enough.

2. If a progressive such as Warren or Bernie is nominated they will lose the electoral college because moderates and independents simply do not like their ideas. The polling backs this up every time. M4A and the GND are very unpopular.

Democrats can’t stop fighting with each other and will throw the election to Trump once again. If you want Trump out of office vote for the Democratic candidate. Seems like a simple idea, but many can’t seem to grasp it

While I don’t think Trump wins, I mostly agree with your analysis, which is why Democrats would be best served by nominating a candidate that has everybody can live with, which is why it is such a shame that the Harris and O’Rourke and Booker campaigns have fallen flat so far.

[Fuzzy Bear]

No Democrat with a chance at the nomination is so far to the center that the left won't go along.

The election will be a referendum on Trump and on the Democratic House. 

[Mr. Smith]

If he wins, it'll be because of the almost 2012-esque nature of the Dem Slate.

Warren is doing as well as she is by simply being the least damaged, which seems to be how one becomes the nominee from Massachusetts these days.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Munleavy just lied on TV; again, and Hilary was just cleared of wrongdoing by the FBI. It is hypocritical that Dems are putting impeachment to protect Biden; however, the overwhelming evidence is that Trump ia the corrupt one. 2010, Boehner did the same thing and made it seem that Dems are the more corrupt party. GOP should lose the remaining government they have.

[2016]

I don't know if Trump will win but here would be his Path:

Keep Arizona
Keep Georgia
Keep Florida
Keep Iowa
Keep North Carolina
Keep Ohio
Keep the 1 EV in NE & ME
and win Wisconsin again

That would win him Reelection 270-268. FL, IA, NC and OH are his core 4 again.

He could afford losing Pennsylvania & Michigan.

This is IMO also his most plausible Path to getting reelected.

[Devout Centrist]

That's the actual and the factual. I'll be doing my best to make sure as many progressives stay home or vote third party if a moderate is nominated, and I'll be doing my best to make sure as many moderates/independents feel turned off if a progressive is nominated.

Don't you have a child to take care of?

[Rookie Yinzer]

I hope the people whining and hand wringing will be in the streets knocking doors and getting the vote out.

What I can’t stand is people whining about how we’re going to lose the election and they don’t even do sh-t besides armchair philosophizing on the Internet.

[sg0508]

A fractured Democratic party, in-fighting and more apathy is the biggest risk for the Democrats.  They are very clear differences within the Democratic Party right now and they are not seeing eye to eye.

Look at what's likely going on behind closed doors with Pelosi and the pressure for impeachment, Pelosi and the Squad, etc.

[adamevans]

2. If a progressive such as Warren or Bernie is nominated they will lose the electoral college because moderates and independents simply do not like their ideas. The polling backs this up every time. M4A and the GND are very unpopular.

No.

[EJ24]

He will win because Democrats have somehow, with a massive primary field, decided to make 3 people in their 70's the frontrunners who all come with fatal flaws as candidates.

Biden - bad record, voted for the Iraq war, Strom Thurmond, bussing, has trouble keeping a train of thought, corruption issues.

Sanders - socialist, apologist for the USSR and Cuba, will scare the bejeezus out of swing voters in the midwest and maybe even states like Virginia.

Warren - all the issues Sanders has minus the charisma and consistent record. Also no way she's gonna turn out the African American vote even as much as somebody like John Kerry did. Electoral disaster, bank on it.

In a sane world our frontrunners would be people like Booker, Beto, Harris, and Castro but we can't do that because of stuff like

"hIs NaMe Is RoBeRt!" or "sHe'S a CoP!" or not to mention any of the other subtle racist crap that was thrown at Harris when she performed well in that first debate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is a rich man that haven't paid his 236 M in back taxes; as a result, Trump has maintained a 42% approval rating in every purple state. Co, NV and VA won't go GOP

[R.P. McM]

It's a combination of a lack of United democratic party/a poor democratic party and the fact that Trump appeals to many groups - working class whites for example ...

Yeah, poorly-educated white trash, predominantly.

... that are pivotal in states needed to win the Electoral College.

Time to scrap said system, I guess! Certainly, Thomas Jefferson never intended for the most moronic elements of our society to wield undemocratic power over their social and intellectual betters!  

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

1. This line of thinking is the main reason why Hillary lost. You all decided that you could win off of your coalition of educated. This post symptomatic of a phenomenon I like to call moderate hubris.

The Democratic establishment believes that the average American voter sees the Presidency as a job application. In their minds, they would nominate and crown the most qualified, experienced candidate since Dwight D. Eisenhower juxtaposed against a foul-mouthed reality TV star, and they would finally win enough to cement and defend Obama's legacy for 3 years. Of course, this did not happen.

Same with the establishment. The Democratic Party's bent towards the educated class has taken them so far that even when the warning signs were on the wall, they didn't need unions or the working class. They didn't need Bernie voters. They'd just nominate a candidate who supported union-busting, the working class would see the dangers of Donald Trump, and flock to Hillary because of the big bad orange man. Money that could have gone to Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan went to places like Chicago and New Orleans to run up the popular vote score (what the actual christ???), and they lost.

2. When Trumpists talk about the worst parts of the Democratic Party, they don't see Sanders and Warren as the embodiment of that. They think of the Beto O'Rourke types, who are literally advocating for taking away your guns and taxing churches. They like Social Security and Medicare. They may not like other people getting it, but God forbid if you touch their Medicare or Social Security.

Your points about popularity are false - while transitioning to single-payer is unpopular, the idea of expanding Medicare to all citizens is popular. I've never heard anyone talk about how awesome their insurance company is, but they love their doctor. They have no attachment or customer loyalty to Aetna or Blue Cross.

The polls I've seen support the Green New Deal, especially in swing districts. Things like a federal jobs guarantee are popular. They don't like doing away with fossil fuel plants or gas-powered cars, but they like the idea of building a renewable energy infrastructure.

I've come to a place of acceptance that some of these unpopular ideas won't pass the House or Senate. The country isn't ready for them yet. However, I see much less risk of running a candidate like Bernie or Warren than Biden or Buttigieg (the latter of whom would be an unmitigated disaster). Bashing the left and blaming them for Trump isn't going to get them to turn out for your candidate.

[Kamala's side hoe]

When Trumpists talk about the worst parts of the Democratic Party, they don't see Sanders and Warren as the embodiment of that. They think of the Beto O'Rourke types, who are literally advocating for taking away your guns and taxing churches. They like Social Security and Medicare. They may not like other people getting it, but God forbid if you touch their Medicare or Social Security.

Your points about popularity are false - while transitioning to single-payer is unpopular, the idea of expanding Medicare to all citizens is popular. I've never heard anyone talk about how awesome their insurance company is, but they love their doctor. They have no attachment or customer loyalty to Aetna or Blue Cross.

The polls I've seen support the Green New Deal, especially in swing districts. Things like a federal jobs guarantee are popular. They don't like doing away with fossil fuel plants or gas-powered cars, but they like the idea of building a renewable energy infrastructure.

Care to link those polls?