Next to Drop Out: Post Debate and FEC Filings

[Flyersfan232]

Who is voting Messam on this? He's never going to drop out because he's not actually running for President.

Seriously though, Ryan any minute now, Castro when he doesn't make the next debate, Sestak, Williamson, and Delaney in the next few months when they run out of cash.

I wonder how till Delaney regrets not running for governor

[Flyersfan232]

I'm beginning to lean towards Castro being the next to go. He's talked about his campaign's vulnerabilities for weeks, and he seems well aware that a well judged endorsement could earn him a spot on another ticket.

After that, I think it comes down to who runs out of cash first: Ryan, Bennet, Sestak or Gabbard.

Gab are going to go Ron Paul

[GoTfan]

Williamson ditching and switching to the Greens isn't an impossibility.

She better do it before Gabbard jumps on the Green train.

Nah, Gabbard probably has Senate ambitions down the line. Plus she’s prominent enough within the party that she can ensure her voice gets heard. There is no need for her to go Green IMO.

^This. When Hirono leaves the Senate, it's hard to see who inherits the seat aside from Gabbard, if she stays in the House. Given that her run for President will broaden her name recognition, and make her the most famous Hawaiian politician in the nation, her campaign feels far more like an audition for the Class 1 Senate seat than an honest run for President.

That'll be a tough sell if her primary opponent continues to remind everyone how much of a loon she is.

Oh, she could be damaged, for sure. And if she loses her primary, it's over.

But if she pulls through, I'd imagine she'll have recovered enough political capital by the time one of Hawaii's Senate seats opens up.

I doubt she loses her primary. I remember half the forum was wetting their pants over the fact she was sure to lose in 2018 . . . and she pulled through pretty easily.

[Crumpets]

Ryan is the most realistic. Sestak and Messam have something (what it is, I don't know) to prove so they won't be dropping out.

Williamson ditching and switching to the Greens isn't an impossibility.

Williamson being the Green nominee would be a good deal on both ends. She's a far better messenger than Stein, and my gut dislike for the Greens would probably drop to its lowest level since pre-2000.

[Mr. Smith]

Eh, going with Bennet from here on out. I'll be correct again at some point.

[IceSpear]

I've voted Ryan in every single one of these polls for the last few months so I have to be right eventually

The joke will be on you once Democratic nominee Tim Ryan is giving his acceptance speech at the DNC.

[Mr. Morden]

I thought about starting a separate thread on this, but might as well just put it here: Gabbard said that she's going to stick with her campaign all the way to the convention, regardless of whether she has the votes to win:

https://twitter.com/ajjaffe/status/1185636674182758401

Of course, "I'm in this until the end" is something that candidates often say even if they're secretly open to dropping out imminently.  You don't want to reveal that you're on the verge of dropping out until the day you do.  Still, "In it until the convention" isn't something that everyone polling at Gabbard's level will say.

[Torrain]

I thought about starting a separate thread on this, but might as well just put it here: Gabbard said that she's going to stick with her campaign all the way to the convention, regardless of whether she has the votes to win:

Why is she so bad at this?

“I’m not a Russian plant. But I’ll stay in long after my chances are dead, so I can sow maximum division”

[Mr. Smith]

I thought about starting a separate thread on this, but might as well just put it here: Gabbard said that she's going to stick with her campaign all the way to the convention, regardless of whether she has the votes to win:

Why is she so bad at this?

“I’m not a Russian plant. But I’ll stay in long after my chances are dead, so I can sow maximum division”

Is that what Ron Paul '08 did?

[Crumpets]

I thought about starting a separate thread on this, but might as well just put it here: Gabbard said that she's going to stick with her campaign all the way to the convention, regardless of whether she has the votes to win:

Why is she so bad at this?

“I’m not a Russian plant. But I’ll stay in long after my chances are dead, so I can sow maximum division”

Is that what Ron Paul '08 did?

I'm pretty sure Ron Paul '08 was a secret Cayman Islands plant.

[Frenchrepublican]

Ryan or Castro