KY-Mason Dixon: Dead heat

[Calthrina950]

Except Bevin's approval in this poll didn't match with what we knew from everywhere else. This poll was bad just like the others, we needed more data overall from KY with just more polls. Everyone had problems that would just average out if we had more points, particularly recent points to compare  to.

Mason-Dixon was closer than any other poll to predicting how this race would go. They were also correct in predicting Reeves' win in Mississippi. I will trust what they have to say about Louisiana.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Something to consider: this is an off-off year election and it's far from clear that turnout dynamics will favor Republicans, as they so evidently did in 2015. The anti-Bevin crowd in Kentucky would like him to be hung from a post and every teacher in the state will be voting - do you feel confident that Trump can rustle up a bunch of coal dust blown hillbillies to vote for Bevin? It's possible, especially in a politically charged period, but it's also possible that Bevin is crushed because turnout is low.

I think this race is a tossup.

huh look who was right about this

Turnout was not low, it was very high for an off-year and Beshear won due to persuading a large chunk of voters that will vote for Trump/McConnell in 2020 and that voted R for the other statewide offices. There's nothing to really brag about here.

Turnout was much higher in Louisville and Lexington than it was in traditionally Republican rural KY, which is what's relevant here. Sorry, I was right about this! Owned!

[Landslide Lyndon]

So I guess that means that undecideds didn't break massively for Bevin as expected.

[Gustaf]

Note that in 538's upgraded ratings Mason-Dixon gets a B+ and for the 2017-2019 cycle they have the 3rd best score by 538's preferred metric. So maybe they're back.

[DINGO Joe]

Something to consider: this is an off-off year election and it's far from clear that turnout dynamics will favor Republicans, as they so evidently did in 2015. The anti-Bevin crowd in Kentucky would like him to be hung from a post and every teacher in the state will be voting - do you feel confident that Trump can rustle up a bunch of coal dust blown hillbillies to vote for Bevin? It's possible, especially in a politically charged period, but it's also possible that Bevin is crushed because turnout is low.

I think this race is a tossup.

huh look who was right about this

Turnout was not low, it was very high for an off-year and Beshear won due to persuading a large chunk of voters that will vote for Trump/McConnell in 2020 and that voted R for the other statewide offices. There's nothing to really brag about here.

Turnout was much higher in Louisville and Lexington than it was in traditionally Republican rural KY, which is what's relevant here. Sorry, I was right about this! Owned!

Across the state there was an increase of just under 50% in votes vs 2015.  Jefferson lagged this slightly with an increase of 45% while Fayette was up 60%.  Besides swing, I've always wished Atlas had some type of map indicating changes in vote totals (I call it magnitude for lack of a better term).