KY-Mason Dixon: Dead heat
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  KY-Mason Dixon: Dead heat
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Author Topic: KY-Mason Dixon: Dead heat  (Read 6102 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: October 16, 2019, 06:50:30 AM »
« edited: October 16, 2019, 07:31:01 AM by RogueBeaver »

46 apiece.
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Skye
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« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2019, 06:55:02 AM »

Bevin Approval: 45/48

LMAO. F to the Beshear campaign.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2019, 07:19:29 AM »
« Edited: October 16, 2019, 07:23:04 AM by ElectionsGuy »

I hope Beshear enjoyed his lead in the past few months, now he gets to lose to the (formerly, I guess) most unpopular governor in America.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2019, 07:20:32 AM »

If Bevin's approval really is that high, its pretty much over.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2019, 07:21:09 AM »

The entire crosstabs is here :
https://www.wymt.com/content/news/EMBARGO-TIL-6-AM-Mason-Dixon-Kentucky-Poll-indicates-governors-race-is-tied-going-into-November-563167251.html

Trump approval rate : 57/39 (a bit low)

It’s crazy, but Bevin is polling better now than at the same time in 2015 (Mason Dixon had him down 2 in October 2015)

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TML
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« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2019, 07:22:18 AM »

Remember that Mitch McConnell managed to get his favorability rating to even (49/49) by Election Day 2014, according to exit polls taken back then. It looks like that dynamic is playing out once again...
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2019, 07:22:56 AM »


Libertarian is at 1%
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2019, 07:43:10 AM »

KY is only likely R at the presidential level, this doesnt bold well for McConnell, who is being challenged by McGrath.  Beshear will win.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2019, 07:57:47 AM »


Is this some sort of joke?
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2019, 07:58:21 AM »

How about if we try getting some real pollsters for a change?
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2016
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« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2019, 08:03:57 AM »

Here is the whole Number:
Do you support impeaching President Donald Trump

Support 29 %
Oppose 65 %

National Democrats made matters worse for Beshear by continually talking about that. It hurt JBE in Louisiana and it is hurting Beshear as well.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2019, 08:06:49 AM »

Here is the whole Number:
Do you support impeaching President Donald Trump

Support 29 %
Oppose 65 %

National Democrats made matters worse for Beshear by continually talking about that. It hurt JBE in Louisiana and it is hurting Beshear as well.

These are R leaning states, the GOP should be sweeping these states. Beshear is still holding on, despite the impeachment and JBE is leading in the GE by 17 points
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2019, 08:07:08 AM »

KY is only likely R at the presidential level, this doesnt bold well for McConnell, who is being challenged by McGrath.  Beshear will win.

Yeah, Beshear is strongly favored now.

Didn't Mason Dixon have Mitt Romney winning nationwide?
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Gracile
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« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2019, 08:17:53 AM »

Beshear is actually down from Mason-Dixon’s last poll of this race (taken in December) where he was leading 48-40.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2019, 08:38:18 AM »

I didn't notice until now that the poll has Bevin losing independents by 8%. That can't be good - for him at least. It's great for Kentucky, but not Bevin.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #15 on: October 16, 2019, 08:50:29 AM »

Here is the whole Number:
Do you support impeaching President Donald Trump

Support 29 %
Oppose 65 %

National Democrats made matters worse for Beshear by continually talking about that. It hurt JBE in Louisiana and it is hurting Beshear as well.

These are R leaning states, the GOP should be sweeping these states. Beshear is still holding on, despite the impeachment and JBE is leading in the GE by 17 points

This is nonsense. KY is only a Lean R State on the Federal Level. Former Governor Steve Beshear got elected twice in KY and was one of the most progressive Governors in the Nation. ALG got elected twice as SoS. Folks like Luallen, Edelen and Stumbo got elected. KY has a very progressive lean on the State Level.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #16 on: October 16, 2019, 08:53:08 AM »

This is nonsense. KY is only a Lean R State on the Federal Level. Former Governor Steve Beshear got elected twice in KY and was one of the most progressive Governors in the Nation. ALG got elected twice as SoS. Folks like Luallen, Edelen and Stumbo got elected. KY has a very progressive lean on the State Level.

Most of those Democrats were not particularly liberal, but they did better in elections than more conservative Democrats would have done.
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« Reply #17 on: October 16, 2019, 09:04:39 AM »

This is nonsense. KY is only a Lean R State on the Federal Level. Former Governor Steve Beshear got elected twice in KY and was one of the most progressive Governors in the Nation. ALG got elected twice as SoS. Folks like Luallen, Edelen and Stumbo got elected. KY has a very progressive lean on the State Level.

Most of those Democrats were not particularly liberal, but they did better in elections than more conservative Democrats would have done.
Steve Beshear immediatedly started implementing ObamaCare once he got elected and in the most liberal way. Based on Name ID alone his Son Andy who is the Governor Candidate this time, should have walked away with this.

I stand by it: The consistent Impeachment Talk by Nancy Pelosi & her cohorts is hurting Democratic Governor Candidates in LA, KY, MS. The Reason JBE didn't win outright last Saturday was Impeachment.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #18 on: October 16, 2019, 09:12:34 AM »

The good thing for Beshear is that 14% of Independents are still undecided and he leads by 8 among the decided ones.

Bad thing: Trump is popular there and will likely campaign for Bevin.

Gonna be a close race.
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Skunk
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« Reply #19 on: October 16, 2019, 10:05:19 AM »

KY is only likely R at the presidential level, this doesnt bold well for McConnell, who is being challenged by McGrath.  Beshear will win.

Yeah, Beshear is strongly favored now.

Didn't Mason Dixon have Mitt Romney winning nationwide?
You’re using a poll from over six years ago to try to discredit a result you don’t like, I think you just need to accept that you’re gonna be stuck with Bevin for another four years bro.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #20 on: October 16, 2019, 10:07:06 AM »

You’re using a poll from over six years ago to try to discredit a result you don’t like

Bevin is using ideas from 600 years ago to discredit a world he doesn't like.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #21 on: October 16, 2019, 10:39:13 AM »

Their last poll had Beshear ahead by 8, and private polling also shows Bevin gaining. It’s not over by any means, but it doesn’t take a genius to make out the trend here.

I never bought that Beshear was more likely to win than Hood.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #22 on: October 16, 2019, 11:47:56 AM »

So, basically the “circle jerkers” were right and this race is unfolding just as predicted?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #23 on: October 16, 2019, 12:11:24 PM »

But I thought Beshear had this in the bag because he led big in December polls and his own internals! It's not like Democrats collapse in every crimson red state (especially Kentucky) at the end of every campaign! It doesn't matter because MUH Bevin unpopulaaarrrrr!

I tried to tell you all, I really did. TN-Sen/OK-Gov redux.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #24 on: October 16, 2019, 12:14:25 PM »

New Poll: Kentucky Governor by Mason-Dixon on 2019-10-13

Summary: D: 46%, R: 46%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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