Why Granholm will win

[MaC]

most of this generally true.  But keep in mind, Granholm (according to the one poll is 43 on the list of governors.  She's no Bob Taft, but since the beginning of the year she hasn't had a good approval rating.

The thing is that Michigan is the lowest economically, while the rest of America has recovered from the recession.  People generally blame executives for this (whether or not they're responsible).  Henceforth Bush hasn't been blamed for the state of the economy lately, but since Michigan is still at a low, there's blame for Granholm.

True, the Michigan Republican Party has an IQ of about 65.  I wouldn't be surprized if Granholm was attacked on social issues. 

Prediction for 2006: the 2002 election -1% on the Republican side, +1% for Granholm.

What'd be really interesting is if a solid third party pick enters the ring...

[MaC]

The thing is that Michigan is the lowest economically, while the rest of America has recovered from the recession. 

I would not describe what's happening in Ohio as economic recovery.

perhaps not, but Michigan is lower than most states.  It just might be the case that Ohio is also up there in unemployment rate.