Rate Mississippi

[ElectionsGuy]

21 day poll (up to ~3 pm on election day)

Likely R. Don't see Hood getting a majority of the vote, even if he wins a plurality somehow.

[Politician]

Likely R, the state electoral college won't last in court but no way Hood can get a majority. Beshear is more likely to win

[Frenchrepublican]

Likely R. Reeves wins 53/45

[Xing]

At this point, I probably have to say Safe Reeves, though Hood could come at least somewhat close.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Likely R/bordering on Safe. There’s not many paths to victory for Hood, but there’s at least one that exists (juicing black turnout and running 10-15 points better than Hillary in white rurals). The same can’t be said for Beshear who needs to add roughly 20% to Hillary’s vote totals across the board, rural and urban

[MT Treasurer]

Pure Tossup, and I still think people are seriously underestimating Hood. MS is nowhere near as Republican(-trending) as LA and KY, and Hood doesn’t need as many Trump voters as JBE and especially Beshear.

If it weren’t for JBE's incumbency and Bevin's unpopularity, people would (rightly) call this the best Democratic pick-up opportunity by far based on fundamentals and the state's demographics alone. I think it’s entirely possible that Hood ekes out a narrow win even as JBE loses by 1-2% and Bevin wins fairly comfortably. It’s even more likely if demographics and trends really are destiny.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean , if Hood doesn't get 50, its over

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Safe Reeves. Reeves wins 55-45.

[Gracile]

Likey R. Hood could make it close, but ekeing out a win seems like a real challenge.

[ElectionsGuy]

Pure Tossup, and I still think people are seriously underestimating Hood. MS is nowhere near as Republican(-trending) as LA and KY, and Hood doesn’t need as many Trump voters as JBE and especially Beshear.

If it weren’t for JBE's incumbency and Bevin's unpopularity, people would (rightly) call this the best Democratic pick-up opportunity by far based on fundamentals and the state's demographics alone. I think it’s entirely possible that Hood ekes out a narrow win even as JBE loses by 1-2% and Bevin wins fairly comfortably. It’s even more likely if demographics and trends really are destiny.

You also said that JBE would easily clear a runoff with well over 50%. Color me skeptical that a non-incumbent JBE equivalent in Mississippi with an existing popular Republican governor has an equal chance to win than the Republican, when we just saw an only slightly more Republican state with a popular incumbent Democrat fail to get a majority of the vote.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The developments from Louisiana's race has shifted all my ratings for this year's races to the right. As such Mississippi is now likely R.

[SnowLabrador]

Safe R thanks to Mississippi's Electoral College system. Even so I doubt that Hood will even win the popular vote, so it's likely moot anyway. As Louisiana showed us the other night, polarization is too great.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Likely R, Hood will probably get within single digits but struggle to get to 50%. Reeves wins by 7 to 8 points.

[Del Tachi]

Lean R at this point. 

Hood isn’t out, but he hasn’t run the type of campaign he needs to in order to win.  I don’t think he ever really wanted it - his messaging had been off from day one.  Reeves is a very weak Republican nominee and will do poorly, but Brandon Presley probably could have made this more of a race. 

I’ll say Hood matches Espy’s two-party vote share, so 53-45 sounds right.  County map will be interesting - Hood should cut GOP margins in the metro and college counties, but Reeves will probably improve greatly in NEMS.

[Tender Branson]

51-47 Reeves/Hoodie

[Tender Branson]

Question:

If Hood wins the popular vote but not the majority of districts, will the MS legislature really pick Reeves as the new Governor and ignore the voters ?

[SnowLabrador]

Question:

If Hood wins the popular vote but not the majority of districts, will the MS legislature really pick Reeves as the new Governor and ignore the voters ?

These are Republicans we're talking about. They will subvert democracy if it helps them.

[MT Treasurer]

You also said that JBE would easily clear a runoff with well over 50%. Color me skeptical that a non-incumbent JBE equivalent in Mississippi with an existing popular Republican governor has an equal chance to win than the Republican, when we just saw an only slightly more Republican state with a popular incumbent Democrat fail to get a majority of the vote.

I said that JBE would win with 51% or 52% and that it could go to a runoff, which it did. However, I certainly don’t buy that this result proves that MS is unwinnable for Democrats. JBE received 47% of the vote even as Republicans won the other two statewide offices by 36 and 32 points, respectively, which is certainly impressive (MS has way too many black voters for such a landslide). Yes, LA is very Republican, but I don’t think 32% or even 34% is the new normal for Democrats in this state, so the runoff electorate should be more Democratic-friendly (it’s possible that the first election was viewed more as a Republican primary, although I’m not too sure about that). Of course we also shouldn’t just assume that enough Abraham supporters will quickly unite behind Rispone given how negative of a campaign he ran.

My guess is that JBE wins the runoff 52-48 or 53-47, but if Republicans want to believe that they have this in the bag, by all means go ahead. Maybe Senator Suzanne Haik Terrell can give a speech at Rispone's victory party too.

[Donerail]

Lean R sounds right. Reeves' performance against Waller gives me no reason to be confident in his ability to not mess this up.

Question:

If Hood wins the popular vote but not the majority of districts, will the MS legislature really pick Reeves as the new Governor and ignore the voters ?

These are Republicans we're talking about. They will subvert democracy if it helps them.

More to the point, they'll do it if the courts let them.

[ElectionsGuy]

You also said that JBE would easily clear a runoff with well over 50%. Color me skeptical that a non-incumbent JBE equivalent in Mississippi with an existing popular Republican governor has an equal chance to win than the Republican, when we just saw an only slightly more Republican state with a popular incumbent Democrat fail to get a majority of the vote.

I said that JBE would win with 51% or 52% and that it could go to a runoff, which it did. However, I certainly don’t buy that this result proves that MS is unwinnable for Democrats. JBE received 47% of the vote even as Republicans won the other two statewide offices by 36 and 32 points, respectively, which is certainly impressive (MS has way too many black voters for such a landslide). Yes, LA is very Republican, but I don’t think 32% or even 34% is the new normal for Democrats in this state, so the runoff electorate should be more Democratic-friendly (it’s possible that the first election was viewed more as a Republican primary, although I’m not too sure about that). Of course we also shouldn’t just assume that enough Abraham supporters will quickly unite behind Rispone given how negative of a campaign he ran.

My guess is that JBE wins the runoff 52-48 or 53-47, but if Republicans want to believe that they have this in the bag, by all means go ahead. Maybe Senator Suzanne Haik Terrell can give a speech at Rispone's victory party too.

Here's the post of yours I knew that from, btw

Likely no runoff, Edwards wins with 53%-55%.

Mississippi only has about 5% more blacks than Louisiana. Bryant won in a similar landslide in 2015, so it's not exactly impossible (via winning a decent % of blacks, as Nungesser/Landry possibly did). The jungle primary is certainly not viewed as a Republican primary, or else turnout would be way lower than runoffs and that has never been the case. I don't think those other statewide performances are a "new normal" either and actually think Edwards has a slightly greater chance to win the runoff, I'm just pointing out what you said before.

That was almost a month before the election, to be fair, so maybe you changed slightly. I did as well. But broadly speaking, when you post in a style of such confidence and sarcastically scold people for thinking differently from yourself then you should at least admit when you get it wrong.

[Frenchrepublican]

You also said that JBE would easily clear a runoff with well over 50%. Color me skeptical that a non-incumbent JBE equivalent in Mississippi with an existing popular Republican governor has an equal chance to win than the Republican, when we just saw an only slightly more Republican state with a popular incumbent Democrat fail to get a majority of the vote.

I said that JBE would win with 51% or 52% and that it could go to a runoff, which it did. However, I certainly don’t buy that this result proves that MS is unwinnable for Democrats. JBE received 47% of the vote even as Republicans won the other two statewide offices by 36 and 32 points, respectively, which is certainly impressive (MS has way too many black voters for such a landslide). Yes, LA is very Republican, but I don’t think 32% or even 34% is the new normal for Democrats in this state, so the runoff electorate should be more Democratic-friendly (it’s possible that the first election was viewed more as a Republican primary, although I’m not too sure about that). Of course we also shouldn’t just assume that enough Abraham supporters will quickly unite behind Rispone given how negative of a campaign he ran.

My guess is that JBE wins the runoff 52-48 or 53-47, but if Republicans want to believe that they have this in the bag, by all means go ahead. Maybe Senator Suzanne Haik Terrell can give a speech at Rispone's victory party too.

Here's the post of yours I knew that from, btw

Likely no runoff, Edwards wins with 53%-55%.

Mississippi only has about 5% more blacks than Louisiana. Bryant won in a similar landslide in 2015, so it's not exactly impossible (via winning a decent % of blacks, as Nungesser/Landry possibly did). The jungle primary is certainly not viewed as a Republican primary, or else turnout would be way lower than runoffs and that has never been the case. I don't think those other statewide performances are a "new normal" either and actually think Edwards has a slightly greater chance to win the runoff, I'm just pointing out what you said before.

That was almost a month before the election, to be fair, so maybe you changed slightly. I did as well. But broadly speaking, when you post in a style of such confidence and sarcastically scold people for thinking differently from yourself then you should at least admit when you get it wrong.

Good analysis.

I don’t understand why some thoughtful people believe that Edwards is a such heavy favourite, or that people who voted for Abraham will either massively seat out the runoff or even defect to Edwards. Edwards can win, of course, but he is clearly vulnerable and his chances of reelection are not higher than 55% at the best.
Personally, I think the race will be decided by > 2%

[MT Treasurer]

Here's the post of yours I knew that from, btw

Likely no runoff, Edwards wins with 53%-55%.

Mississippi only has about 5% more blacks than Louisiana. Bryant won in a similar landslide in 2015, so it's not exactly impossible (via winning a decent % of blacks, as Nungesser/Landry possibly did). The jungle primary is certainly not viewed as a Republican primary, or else turnout would be way lower than runoffs and that has never been the case. I don't think those other statewide performances are a "new normal" either and actually think Edwards has a slightly greater chance to win the runoff, I'm just pointing out what you said before.

That was almost a month before the election, to be fair, so maybe you changed slightly. I did as well. But broadly speaking, when you post in a style of such confidence and sarcastically scold people for thinking differently from yourself then you should at least admit when you get it wrong.

I did change my prediction slightly:

I think JBE avoids a runoff with 52% of the vote, give or take 1%. I guess it could go to a runoff, but people here are seriously underestimating JBE (and Hood).

Still too friendly to JBE of course, but not as bad as 54%/55%. I’m not scolding anyone, I just tend to be more bearish on Republican prospects in red states than most other people here (with a few exceptions like MO-SEN or IN-SEN 2018, when I was "delusional" and "letting my personal feelings influence my analysis" for rating those races Likely R because clearly they were hyper-competitive Tossups with "strong" and "underrated" incumbents like McCaskill and Donnelly running in "a Trump midterm").

No offense, but when the analysis of every election in a red state amounts to nothing more than "Safe R because polarization and inelasticity," this forum can be pretty frustrating to read. I’m not saying that polarization and impeachment aren’t hurting JBE, but they’re not the be-all and end-all, and the race certainly isn’t over yet.

[skbl17]

If the federal lawsuit is dismissed or the court rules against the plaintiffs:

Safe R because of Section 140 of the Mississippi Constitution.

The Governor of the state shall be chosen in the following manner: On the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November of A.D. 1895, and on the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November in every fourth year thereafter, until the day shall be changed by law, an election shall be held in the several counties and districts created for the election of members of the House of Representatives in this state, for Governor, and the person receiving in any county or such legislative district the highest number of votes cast therein, for said office, shall be holden to have received as many votes as such county or district is entitled to members in the House of Representatives, which last named votes are hereby designated “electoral votes”. In all cases where a Representative is apportioned to two (2) or more counties or districts, the electoral vote based on such Representative, shall be equally divided among such counties or districts. The returns of said election shall be certified by the election commissioners, or the majority of them, of the several counties and transmitted, sealed, to the seat of government, directed to the Secretary of State, and shall be by him safely kept and delivered to the Speaker of the House of Representatives on the first day of the next ensuing session of the Legislature.

The Speaker shall, on the same day he shall have received said returns, open and publish them in the presence of the House of Representatives, and said House shall ascertain and count the vote of each county and legislative district and decide any contest that may be made concerning the same, and said decision shall be made by a majority of the whole number of members of the House of Representatives concurring therein by a viva voce vote, which shall be recorded in its journal; provided, in case the two (2) highest candidates have an equal number of votes in any county or legislative district, the electoral vote of such county or legislative district shall be considered as equally divided between them. The person found to have received a majority of all the electoral votes, and also a majority of the popular vote, shall be declared elected.

The double majority requirement means that Hood must win a majority of state house districts. In his 2015 race for Attorney General, he won in a landslide but only carried 62 or 63 of the 122 seats (62 is needed for a majority). Reeves has generally led most opinion polls, but even if Hood wins the popular vote by a decent margin, he will lose some of the districts he won in 2015.

Under Section 141, the House of Representatives chooses the next governor if no candidate wins both a majority of the popular and "electoral" (i.e. state house district) vote. This last occurred in 1999, when Ronnie Musgrove was elected governor by the then Democrat-controlled legislature - in that case, Musgrove fell just short of a popular vote majority (49.62%) and evenly split the electoral vote with his Republican challenger.

Today, the composition of the House is 72-46 Republican. In this hyperpolarized environment, the MS House GOP will not tolerate the selection of a Democrat as governor, regardless of how conservative he may be. In this case, congratulations to Governor-elect Tate Reeves.

If the court rules in favor of the plaintiffs and such a ruling is upheld on appeal:

Likely R. There's been a strange lack of recent polling of this race, with the only polls conducted since the primary being Dem internals. Even those internals only have Hood up 2-3 points, and he doesn't break 45% in any of them. Plus, I'm quite sure Trump will show up to stump for Reeves as usual.

As for the Waller supporters, some of them will vote for Hood, but I feel many of them will just stay home. I don't think this will be a factor.

Unless I see evidence to the contrary, I'll have to default to the state's partisan lean and say the race is a likely Republican hold. I'm not saying "Safe R" because I do think Hood may have just enough crossover appeal to have a small chance to pull off a victory, but the lack of quality independent polls put me off from rating this race as anything more Dem-friendly than "Likely R".

[Skill and Chance]

Likely R.  Reeves wins, but probably by less than 10.

[Mr. Smith]

Likely R just because of the other clauses.