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November 24, 2020, 01:46:35 AM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, ON Progressive)
  Siena-NY: Biden 21, Warren 21, Sanders 16, Harris 4, Buttigieg 4, Yang 3
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Author Topic: Siena-NY: Biden 21, Warren 21, Sanders 16, Harris 4, Buttigieg 4, Yang 3  (Read 761 times)
Gass3268
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« on: October 15, 2019, 09:01:30 AM »

Biden 21
Warren 21
Sanders 16
Harris 4
Buttigieg 4
Yang 3
Booker 1
O'Rourke 1
Klobuchar 1
Gabbard <1
de Blasio <1

Source
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2019, 09:03:30 AM »

#Toomanyundecideds, but pretty bad poll for Biden.
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Professor Morden
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2019, 09:22:08 AM »

NYC:
Biden 20%
Sanders 19%
Warren 19%

suburbs:
Biden 23%
Warren 19%
Sanders 12%

Upstate:
Warren 27%
Biden 20%
Sanders 11%

white:
Warren 26%
Biden 19%
Sanders 11%

black:
Biden 23%
Sanders 21%
Warren 13%

Latino:
Sanders 25%
Biden 24%
Warren 16%

Catholic:
Biden 27%
Warren 18%
Sanders 13%

Protestant:
Biden 28%
Warren 13%
Sanders 8%

Jewish:
Warren 31%
Sanders 12%
Biden 10%

other religion:
Sanders 25%
Warren 25%
Biden 12%
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2016
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2019, 09:29:23 AM »

Very bad Poll for Biden. If he is tied in NYC there is no way he can win the State.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2019, 10:28:40 AM »

The religious breakdowns are interesting. Haven't seen any other pollster show that.
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Progressive Icon Bill de Blasio
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2019, 10:36:32 AM »

Quote
de Blasio <1

This is just mean, he's not even in the race anymore
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2019, 10:38:26 AM »

Quote
de Blasio <1

This is just mean, he's not even in the race anymore

You missed that he got 0% in NYC in the crosstabs, too.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2019, 11:05:21 AM »

I can't imagine Bernie doing that poorly upstate.
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JG
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2019, 11:07:04 AM »

I can't imagine Bernie doing that poorly upstate.

20% isn't that poor considering his statewide number.
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gracile
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2019, 11:08:34 AM »
« Edited: October 15, 2019, 11:21:36 AM by gracile »

I can't imagine Bernie doing that poorly upstate.

Those numbers aren't too bad, though I think Warren is doing better in the University towns upstate where he needs to perform well.
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Cinemark
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« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2019, 11:10:12 AM »

I can't imagine Bernie doing that poorly upstate.

One things for sure, we're gonna find out how much of Bernie's support was "anybody but Hillary" back in 2016. I think conservative upstate New York would be one of those places, but you may be right.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2019, 11:12:24 AM »

I can't imagine Bernie doing that poorly upstate.

20% isn't that poor considering his statewide number.

He's at 11% upstate.

Most of his support in the poll is coming from NYC where he is essentially tied with the other two.
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Xing
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« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2019, 11:22:54 AM »

Way too many undecideds, but New York will definitely be interesting to watch.
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henster
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« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2019, 12:10:17 PM »

The black voters #'s is notable, it's a stark contrast to what we've seen from the South. If there is a difference in voting patterns of Northern/Southern blacks then that has huge implications for Biden.
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Beet
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« Reply #14 on: October 15, 2019, 12:13:58 PM »

The upstate # is encouraging for Warren. This area is more similar to other white working class areas in the north than the rest of NY.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #15 on: October 15, 2019, 12:41:48 PM »

Meh, Biden should be much higher. What gives me hope in New York is that Andrew Cuomo will forcefully support the Biden campaign. This is definitely an asset.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #16 on: October 15, 2019, 01:19:40 PM »

The black voters #'s is notable, it's a stark contrast to what we've seen from the South. If there is a difference in voting patterns of Northern/Southern blacks then that has huge implications for Biden.

It's definitely the case that Southern black voters (outside of the Atlanta metro) are more conservative than Northern black voters on social/religious issues. Usually doesn't matter much in a Presidential primary. I wouldn't expect a huge divergence, but some difference isn't surprising.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #17 on: October 16, 2019, 02:16:42 AM »

The black voters #'s is notable, it's a stark contrast to what we've seen from the South. If there is a difference in voting patterns of Northern/Southern blacks then that has huge implications for Biden.

It's definitely the case that Southern black voters (outside of the Atlanta metro) are more conservative than Northern black voters on social/religious issues. Usually doesn't matter much in a Presidential primary. I wouldn't expect a huge divergence, but some difference isn't surprising.

Tintrlvr, once again I hope you are not part of the "Troll Farm" of the Czarists and the Oligarchs, although you seem to not be a "bot", and obviously the Russian Fascist State has much better things to do than focus on individuals posting on Atlas.... Wink

I disagree with your premise that somehow African-American Democratic Party Voting patterns are somehow based fundamentally upon "social/religious issues".  You must have been spending way too much time analyzing Atlas from overseas, rather than living in various communities in America for decades from a wide variety of social-demographic and regional background.   Wink

Black Americans & Latino Americans are frequently similar and self-identification sometimes might depend upon Country of Origin and the American Immigrant Story as much as anything else.

Regardless, looks like Bernie is sweeping the Puerto Rican, Dominican Republic, and Jamaican Neighborhoods of the NYC....

The DEM NY '20 Primary isn't over, and Bernie plays well in the City, just like he did in Chi-Town and Metrlo LA.....

Your observation regarding the Social Conservatism among "Northern" and "Southern" Blacks is true in terms of a massive "voluntary" and "involuntary" forced migration of Southern Blacks during the peak of the Jim Crow era > 1970s.

The "Push-Pull" factor of one of the largest internal migrations within Modern US History, created a separation between families leaving the Homeland to find jobs at substandard wages, racist foremen, and red-lining housing policies, even during the 1930s.

The Sons and daughters of Black WW II veterans remembered the struggle from before. It was brought into educational institutions, mass transit, greater equity in hiring, breaking down racist dominated White Trade Unions, and eventually even in the form of "Black Cops".

Still, many consider Maryland a "Southern State" on Cultural Values, where the African-American Community stood up on Gay Rights issues not so many years back....

So what you sayin' man?

I would posit that Biden's support among AA voters in certain states of the Deep South has a bit more to do with average age of Registered DEM Voters, than it does with religious/cultural issues.

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