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Poll
Question: Rate the Iowa Senate race in 2020
#1
Lean D
#2
Toss-Up/Tilt D
#3
Toss-Up/Tilt R
#4
Lean R
#5
Likely R
#6
Safe R
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Author Topic: Rate Iowa  (Read 784 times)
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
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Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« on: October 15, 2019, 12:03:55 AM »
Vote or change vote in previous threads here:

AL AZ CO ME NC



No Election: 35
Safe D: 6
Likely D: 1
Lean D:
Toss-Up/Tilt D: 1
Toss-Up/Tilt R: 1
Lean R: 1
Likely R: 1
Safe R: 10
No Election: 30



Democrats: 43
Republicans: 43

Runoffs



Pickups

AL AZ CO

Net: D+1
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
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Posts: 44,881


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2019, 12:05:00 AM »
Likely R
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Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2019, 03:56:50 AM »
Likely R

She wins 54/45 in the end
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SnowLabrador
Junior Chimp
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United States


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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2019, 07:05:52 AM »
Safe R. Ernst wins 60-38.
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Galeel
Oashigo
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2019, 07:31:11 AM »
Lean R, just like the presidential race. All 2020 senate races will track the presidential result.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2019, 07:38:22 AM »
« Edited: October 15, 2019, 08:31:22 AM by Sensitive Soccer Moms Against Impeachment »
Safe R, Ernst wins by double digits. It’s Likely R at the presidential level, but Ernst should outperform Trump because she’s a strong retail politician (she even has a motorcycle like Senator Peters).

That said, IA Republicans can definitely do better than Ernst, but she’ll probably be a lifer at this point and there isn’t much we can do about it.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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Posts: 88,961
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2019, 08:53:12 AM »
Ernst will win
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Gracile
gracile
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,054


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

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« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2019, 08:56:13 AM »
Likely R, Ernst is going to be tough to beat.
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andjey
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2019, 08:58:27 AM »
Likely R
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2019, 10:01:28 AM »
Lean R for now. If it looks like Trump will probably win, Safe R.  If it looks really close, Likely R. If it looks like Trump is going to lose, toss-up/TiltD.
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Xing
xingkerui
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Posts: 30,283
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Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

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« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2019, 01:28:07 PM »
Likely R, like the presidential race. Ernst isn't going to win by as much as Grassley (lol), but Greenfield isn't exactly the strongest candidate.
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S019
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E: -4.13, S: -1.39

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« Reply #11 on: October 19, 2019, 07:34:50 AM »
Likely R
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QAnonKelly
dotard
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Posts: 2,995


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.50

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« Reply #12 on: October 19, 2019, 08:14:09 PM »
This is a state where it’s truly too far out to tell. It’s the swingiest state in the country and getting disproportionately hurt by the trade war. I say lean r for now but Ernst better hope and pray there’s not a recession between now and then.
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TML
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #13 on: October 20, 2019, 05:36:52 PM »
Likely R for now - Ernst recently suffered a massive decline in her approval rating (the latest Morning Consult numbers have her net approval at -4, down from +5 a quarter earlier), which prevents her from being considered "safe." Whether or not she actually falls will likely depend on how good the Democratic candidate turns out to be.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 88,961
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


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« Reply #14 on: October 21, 2019, 02:29:41 PM »
Likely R, Dems should abandon IA and spend $$$ in AK, GA, KS, ME, NC, KY and TX as well as secure AZ and CO.
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