Not totally surprised on this, considering that although Oregon does have a Governor Recall option in our State Constitution, the amount of signatures required generally tend to be much less than getting a signature initiative measure on the ballot.
That being said, I was riding on a City Bus in a neighboring City of ~60k right next door, about three Weeks ago when I was pet-sitting & House-sitting and doing mass transit to commute to the Working-Class neighborhood 5k away from my job site while my wife has the wheels because of her hybrid "swing-shift schedule".
I saw about 6-8 people standing around one of the largest shopping centers in the City with "Recall Kate Brown" placards.
Most of these placards actually referenced "Liberating Guns" and repression of Female Reproduction Rights, which are generally unpopular policy positions among the vast majority of Oregon Voters, including even among many Trump voters in "Downstate Oregon"....
Don't get me wrong, as many of you know NOVA has friends, co-workers and family members that own AR-15s, like to Hunt and Fish, and believe that Female Reproductive Rights are fundamentally the choice of the Woman to decide, despite the fact that there might be occasional relatives that try to dictate what happens with women's bodies....
Politically--- "Repeal Kate Brown" activists in the massive deadline to get sigs, looked like a bunch of wingnuts. I was calling out the "canary in the coalmine" at the time of the '18 GOV Election that National DEMs should not assume that Kate would win....
I was pleasantly proved wrong....
As I stated previously, much of the "Kate Brown Recall Effort" was mobilized by elements of the NRA, Christian Conservative Movement, and the last remnants of what is left of what used to be the Proud History of the Republican Party of Oregon....
Apologies
Old School Republican..... and I do not mean that ironically, and as you well know you are one of my favorite Oregon Republicans on Atlas....
Seriously.... after the '18 'pub wipe-out and massive swings in the OR-SEN and OR-House State Elections, what does 2020 portend with Trump on the Ballot?
I did an extensive examination of 2016 Election results in Oregon by County & Precinct.
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5386692#msg5386692I have some posts on the OR-'18 GE when it comes to State House & Senate Races and swings by District (Will need to dig it up).
Bottom line, Knute Buehler's loss in the OR-GOV-'18 GE is extremely unlikely to improve prospects for the GOP in 2020.
If we look based upon my precinct level results from the '16 GE, as well as swings in the '18 GE in Oregon, the prospects of GOP gains in 2020 look increasingly bleak.
I strongly suspect that the 3rd Party voters in many small town and rural parts of Oregon where we observed the greatest swings towards the GOP at the PRES level between '12 and '16, will likely dramatically reverse these swings.
1.) Trump's "Downstate Oregon" brand was heavily based upon several specific economic, political, and demographic changes.
A.) The Great Recession hit Oregon harder than most other States within the US.
B.) The Great Recession was most heavily concentrated in "Downstate Oregon"
C.) We experienced "official unemployment rates" of something like 15-20% in many Downstate
Counties in Oregon.
D.) The Timber sector has long been dominant in "Downstate Oregon". Although we have had
"Informal Rural Agricultural Production" in Oregon that has historically gone in cycles of
expansion and decline of the Timber Sector, where Cultivation of Marijuana has frequently
become a means where proud Loggers and Timber Mill-Workers will occasionally take to the
"Informal Economy" to control the agricultural sector in the fields and forests of Oregon.
E.) The Recovery from the Great Recession led to a net Migration of younger Workers from
Southern Oregon towards the "Metropolitan Centers" of Oregon, replaced by California
Working and Middle-Class retirees with assets (No Wages but can flip their homes in Cali to
get something nice in the Forests and the Streams of Oregon).
F.) Still, the lack of economic recovery in Downstate Oregon even after the '12 Election, created
an issue with the DEM brand, especially with a Neo-Liberal and Iraq War supporter like HRC,
vs a 'Pub that tried to run as an "Anti-War Pub" and protector of Worker Rights against unfair
Trade Policies overseas in the form of DJT.
2.) Not only will many of these places and precincts where I observed the greatest "real swings" towards Trump between '12 and '16 likely swing back....
A.) Trump did not deliver on his promise to the Oregon Paper and Pulp Mill Workers to protect against unfair Canadian Trade Policies on Timber.
B.) Trump's Trade War against Canada on Cranberry Cultivation has not delivered real results for Oregon Farmers.
C.) Trump's Trade War against Canadian Dairy Policy has yet to deliver results, where places like Coos and Tillamook County Oregon are heavily dependent upon the Dairy Industry.
D.) Trump's Trade War against Canadian Fishing Policy on the West Coast does not appear to be a major issue. I am not seeing American and Canadian Fishing Fleets facing off somewhere around the Washington and Canadian border which happened some 40 Years back....
We protect our own in Downstate Oregon, and Trump is a bogus poser of a Republican President, where even though we can go out and shoot some guns, drink some Whiskey, toke some Herb, with a crazy Uncle way out in the woods, we might agree to disagree, but we can agree on one thing: "This Guy is Nuts"....
