Hungarian elections and politics

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Péter Márki-Zay is now speaking. EU flags in the backdrop.  He mentioned Hitler and Yugoslavia, but I don't know Hungarian well at all, so I can't tell exactly what he said.

He said "We know from history that Milosevic was even more popular during the bombing of Yugoslavia, as well as Hitler. Propaganda is what won the elections for Fidesz."

Personal translation, my Hungarian is between B2 and C1, so not 1/1.

Ah. Thanks for translating.
That sort of comment makes sense for him to say.

[jaichind]

Fidesz now at 135 seats

[jaichind]

MKKP won 3.2% of the PR vote.  Very impressive as a joke party.

[Frodo]

It's all over:

Viktor Orbán declares victory in Hungarian general election
Rightwinger and Putin ally wins fourth term despite failure to condemn invasion of Ukraine

Hungary opposition leader admits defeat in Sunday's election

[Omega21]

Hungary supports Orban's position on LGBT issues by 92-96% LOL

This means even a huge majority of the liberal parties voted NO on all of the questions.

Do you support the holding of sexual orientation sessions for minor children in public education without parental consent?

Do you support the promotion of gender reassignment treatments for minors?

Do you support the unrestricted introduction of sexual media content to minors that affects their development?

Do you support the display of gender-sensitive media content to minors?

https://magyarnemzet.hu/valasztas-2022-nepszavazas

[jaichind]

Hungary supports Orban's position on LGBT issues by 92-96% LOL

This means even a huge majority of the liberal parties voted NO on all of the questions.

Do you support the holding of sexual orientation sessions for minor children in public education without parental consent?

Do you support the promotion of gender reassignment treatments for minors?

Do you support the unrestricted introduction of sexual media content to minors that affects their development?

Do you support the display of gender-sensitive media content to minors?

https://magyarnemzet.hu/valasztas-2022-nepszavazas

What was the spoiled ballot rate?  We should de facto count spoiled ballot as a "Yes"

[Omega21]

Hungary supports Orban's position on LGBT issues by 92-96% LOL

This means even a huge majority of the liberal parties voted NO on all of the questions.

Do you support the holding of sexual orientation sessions for minor children in public education without parental consent?

Do you support the promotion of gender reassignment treatments for minors?

Do you support the unrestricted introduction of sexual media content to minors that affects their development?

Do you support the display of gender-sensitive media content to minors?

https://magyarnemzet.hu/valasztas-2022-nepszavazas

What was the spoiled ballot rate?  We should de facto count spoiled ballot as a "Yes"

Can't find that yet, however, if the referendum is declared valid, it will mean that over 50% of the electorate cast a valid vote. Turnout was in the high 60s, so it would mean an overwhelming majority for NO in any case.

[jaichind]

What was the spoiled ballot rate?  We should de facto count spoiled ballot as a "Yes"

Can't find that yet, however, if the referendum is declared valid, it will mean that over 50% of the electorate cast a valid vote. Turnout was in the high 60s, so it would mean an overwhelming majority for NO in any case.

Totally agree.  I am just interested in the true scale of the No victory which is most likely not 92-96 but clearly quite large.  It seems Márki-Zay has accused Orbán of an anti-LGBT agenda so I am trying to figure out how badly that backfired on the united opposition.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What was the spoiled ballot rate?  We should de facto count spoiled ballot as a "Yes"

Can't find that yet, however, if the referendum is declared valid, it will mean that over 50% of the electorate cast a valid vote. Turnout was in the high 60s, so it would mean an overwhelming majority for NO in any case.

Totally agree.  I am just interested in the true scale of the No victory which is most likely not 92-96 but clearly quite large.  It seems Márki-Zay has accused Orbán of an anti-LGBT agenda so I am trying to figure out how badly that backfired on the united opposition.

It might have been the best tactical move to just not play Fidesz's game at all here, but it doesn't seem like that was very possible, given that the opposition base likely wanted Marki-Zay to take a stand.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hungary supports Orban's position on LGBT issues by 92-96% LOL

This means even a huge majority of the liberal parties voted NO on all of the questions.

Do you support the holding of sexual orientation sessions for minor children in public education without parental consent?

Do you support the promotion of gender reassignment treatments for minors?

Do you support the unrestricted introduction of sexual media content to minors that affects their development?

Do you support the display of gender-sensitive media content to minors?

https://magyarnemzet.hu/valasztas-2022-nepszavazas

No, you cretin, it means opposition voters abstained to try to deny the quorum, exactly as their parties had instructed.

Whether that succeeded or not remains to be seen.

[Logical]

Referendum results are here. Eyeballing alone it appears that the valid vote threshold could be reached although it's far from certain.
https://vtr.valasztas.hu/nepszavazas2022

EDIT: never mind. I'm 100% certain it won't reach the validity threshold.

Validity threshold: 4,107,652 votes
Current valid votes (78% counted) : 2,654,880 votes

[jaichind]

The way the PR seats are allocated seems rigged against Fidesz.  If the vote share is 53.96%, 34.18%, and 6.34% then the D'Hondt method should be 53 34 6 and not 47 39 7.

Hungary uses a convulted compensatory system I don't fully understand.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scorporo#Use_in_Hungary

It seems to be

Every citizen has two votes – one to vote for a constituency candidate and one to vote for a party list. The 106 constituency seats are distributed by a one-round plurality system, meaning simply, that the candidate receiving most votes gets elected (compared to the previous two-round majority-plurality system). The distribution of 93 party-list seats is based both on the results of the party and constituency votes. To total of the votes for party-lists, some constituency-votes are added. This happens in two ways:

First, votes that were cast for all constituency candidates that didn’t get elected are added to the respective parties of those candidates.
Second, part of the votes for the victorious constituency candidates is transferred to their parties. Number of transferred votes equals to Number of votes won by the winning candidate minus number of votes won by the second candidate minus one. The logic behind the formula is to transfer all the votes that the winning candidate didn’t actually need to secure election. E.g. if the first candidate receives 15 000 votes and the second 5 000, the winner would have won even if he received 9 999 fewer votes, than he actually did. These votes are thus added to the party total for distribution of nation-wide party list seats.[50] Based on these votes totals, the seats are than distributed among parties by d’Hondt formula.

Yeah, if this is the way it works then for sure the largest party which is the party that will win the most district seats loses out in the PR seat share allocation.

[Omega21]

Hungary supports Orban's position on LGBT issues by 92-96% LOL

This means even a huge majority of the liberal parties voted NO on all of the questions.

Do you support the holding of sexual orientation sessions for minor children in public education without parental consent?

Do you support the promotion of gender reassignment treatments for minors?

Do you support the unrestricted introduction of sexual media content to minors that affects their development?

Do you support the display of gender-sensitive media content to minors?

https://magyarnemzet.hu/valasztas-2022-nepszavazas

No, you cretin, it means opposition voters abstained to try to deny the quorum, exactly as their parties had indicated.

Whether that succeeded or not remains to be seen.

If we count the invalid ballots as a YES, it means around 70% support Orban's current position.

Referendum results are here. Eyeballing alone it appears that the valid vote threshold could be reached although it's far from certain.
https://vtr.valasztas.hu/nepszavazas2022

EDIT: never mind. I'm 100% certain it won't reach the validity threshold.

Validity threshold: 4,107,652 votes
Current valid votes (78% counted) : 2,654,880 votes

Hopefully, they can lower the threshold to 40% and redo it.

A small minority should not be allowed to obstruct democracy.

[S019]

Hungary supports Orban's position on LGBT issues by 92-96% LOL

This means even a huge majority of the liberal parties voted NO on all of the questions.

Do you support the holding of sexual orientation sessions for minor children in public education without parental consent?

Do you support the promotion of gender reassignment treatments for minors?

Do you support the unrestricted introduction of sexual media content to minors that affects their development?

Do you support the display of gender-sensitive media content to minors?

https://magyarnemzet.hu/valasztas-2022-nepszavazas

No, you cretin, it means opposition voters abstained to try to deny the quorum, exactly as their parties had indicated.

Whether that succeeded or not remains to be seen.

If we count the invalid ballots as a YES, it means around 70% support Orban's current position.

As Antonio said, the opposition pushed for their voters to submit invalid ballots, so I don't get how you reach this conclusion.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hungary supports Orban's position on LGBT issues by 92-96% LOL

This means even a huge majority of the liberal parties voted NO on all of the questions.

Do you support the holding of sexual orientation sessions for minor children in public education without parental consent?

Do you support the promotion of gender reassignment treatments for minors?

Do you support the unrestricted introduction of sexual media content to minors that affects their development?

Do you support the display of gender-sensitive media content to minors?

https://magyarnemzet.hu/valasztas-2022-nepszavazas

No, you cretin, it means opposition voters abstained to try to deny the quorum, exactly as their parties had indicated.

Whether that succeeded or not remains to be seen.

If we count the invalid ballots as a YES, it means around 70% support Orban's current position.

And if we count Fidesz votes as votes for the opposition, they won in a landslide!

Electoral analysis is fun like that.

[Logical]

The referendum wasn't meant to pass. It's red meat to supercharge the right wing conservative voter base's turn out and looking at the results, I say the ploy has worked perfectly.

[Omega21]

Hungary supports Orban's position on LGBT issues by 92-96% LOL

This means even a huge majority of the liberal parties voted NO on all of the questions.

Do you support the holding of sexual orientation sessions for minor children in public education without parental consent?

Do you support the promotion of gender reassignment treatments for minors?

Do you support the unrestricted introduction of sexual media content to minors that affects their development?

Do you support the display of gender-sensitive media content to minors?

https://magyarnemzet.hu/valasztas-2022-nepszavazas

No, you cretin, it means opposition voters abstained to try to deny the quorum, exactly as their parties had indicated.

Whether that succeeded or not remains to be seen.

If we count the invalid ballots as a YES, it means around 70% support Orban's current position.

As Antonio said, the opposition pushed for their voters to submit invalid ballots, so I don't get how you reach this conclusion.

A YES vote is against Orban, so, if the opposition votes invalid, we just count that as a YES, and reach the % of people who support/are against Orbans position?

[jaichind]

Is not a better way to measure the LGBT referendum to look at the absolute vote

So far 81% of the vote counted is 2,565,970 for No.

With 95% of the PR vote counted it is Fidesz+MHM at 2,802,164.

It seems in the end the No vote will most likely be a bit below the Fidesz+MHM vote.

[MaxQue]

Hungary supports Orban's position on LGBT issues by 92-96% LOL

This means even a huge majority of the liberal parties voted NO on all of the questions.

Do you support the holding of sexual orientation sessions for minor children in public education without parental consent?

Do you support the promotion of gender reassignment treatments for minors?

Do you support the unrestricted introduction of sexual media content to minors that affects their development?

Do you support the display of gender-sensitive media content to minors?

https://magyarnemzet.hu/valasztas-2022-nepszavazas

No, you cretin, it means opposition voters abstained to try to deny the quorum, exactly as their parties had indicated.

Whether that succeeded or not remains to be seen.

If we count the invalid ballots as a YES, it means around 70% support Orban's current position.

Referendum results are here. Eyeballing alone it appears that the valid vote threshold could be reached although it's far from certain.
https://vtr.valasztas.hu/nepszavazas2022

EDIT: never mind. I'm 100% certain it won't reach the validity threshold.

Validity threshold: 4,107,652 votes
Current valid votes (78% counted) : 2,654,880 votes

Hopefully, they can lower the threshold to 40% and redo it.

A small minority should not be allowed to obstruct democracy.

The democrary has not been obstructed. A majority of people did not vote for it.

[jaichind]

The referendum wasn't meant to pass. It's red meat to supercharge the right wing conservative voter base's turn out and looking at the results, I say the ploy has worked perfectly.

That seems to be what it looks like.  This seems to be a re-run of the 2004 ROC DPP Prez Chen re-election strategy.  DPP put a bunch of referendum items that will not pass the threshold to pass but did push up DPP turnout to give Chen narrow re-election.  In the 2018 ROC local elections, the KMT returned the favor by doing the same making a bad election night for the DPP a disastrous one.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I'm busy this weekend, but you people are freaks. Big Daddy Viktor isn't going to come to your countries and give you the cummies no matter how hard you simp for him.

[Omega21]

I'm busy this weekend, but you people are freaks. Big Daddy Viktor isn't going to come to your countries and give you the cummies no matter how hard you simp for him.

Oh well, One-way ticket to Budapest it is then.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The referendum wasn't meant to pass. It's red meat to supercharge the right wing conservative voter base's turn out and looking at the results, I say the ploy has worked perfectly.

That seems to be what it looks like.  This seems to be a re-run of the 2004 ROC DPP Prez Chen re-election strategy.  DPP put a bunch of referendum items that will not pass the threshold to pass but did push up DPP turnout to give Chen narrow re-election.  In the 2018 ROC local elections, the KMT returned the favor by doing the same making a bad election night for the DPP a disastrous one.

Reminds me of how in 2004 Republicans put SSM bans on the ballot in swing states to energize the right-leaning vote to help Bush get re-elected.

[jaichind]

LGBT referendum absolute vote

So far 87% of the vote counted is 2,788,951 for No.

With 96% of the PR vote counted it is Fidesz+MHM at 2,870,902

Looks like No vote will end up higher than Fidesz+MHM which means some Jobbik voters that voted united opposition also voted No (which makes sense)

[Vosem]

The way the PR seats are allocated seems rigged against Fidesz.  If the vote share is 53.96%, 34.18%, and 6.34% then the D'Hondt method should be 53 34 6 and not 47 39 7.

Hungary uses a convulted compensatory system I don't fully understand.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scorporo#Use_in_Hungary

It seems to be

Every citizen has two votes – one to vote for a constituency candidate and one to vote for a party list. The 106 constituency seats are distributed by a one-round plurality system, meaning simply, that the candidate receiving most votes gets elected (compared to the previous two-round majority-plurality system). The distribution of 93 party-list seats is based both on the results of the party and constituency votes. To total of the votes for party-lists, some constituency-votes are added. This happens in two ways:

First, votes that were cast for all constituency candidates that didn’t get elected are added to the respective parties of those candidates.
Second, part of the votes for the victorious constituency candidates is transferred to their parties. Number of transferred votes equals to Number of votes won by the winning candidate minus number of votes won by the second candidate minus one. The logic behind the formula is to transfer all the votes that the winning candidate didn’t actually need to secure election. E.g. if the first candidate receives 15 000 votes and the second 5 000, the winner would have won even if he received 9 999 fewer votes, than he actually did. These votes are thus added to the party total for distribution of nation-wide party list seats.[50] Based on these votes totals, the seats are than distributed among parties by d’Hondt formula.

Yeah, if this is the way it works then for sure the largest party which is the party that will win the most district seats loses out in the PR seat share allocation.

Cool system. Shame the result was so sh**tty, though.

Not too surprising given that incumbents pretty much always see a spike when there's a foreign relations crisis, and I have to imagine that Zelensky openly attacking Orban before the election wound up actually doing Orban some favors. Hungarians within Ukraine have generally not been getting along great with the government in Kyiv (though I'm pretty sure they voted for Zelensky in 2019, like everyone else).

Also, shame that we don't have exit polls because it would be interesting to see whether (as I suspect) Fidesz's pattern of support isn't similar to other eastern European parties of power (like PiS, ANO, or the Slovak Social Democrats); for these parties support usually skews very strongly old.