Post-mortem Louisiana election analysis (from abroad). With post-runoff addition

[smoltchanov]

Foreword: Author is a commited centrist (residing in Russia, though - with relatives in US), and his opinion reflects his ideological views: he is absolutely disgusted with BOTH present day US  parties (though still more - with Republicans)

1. JBE is greatly overperforming all other Democratic candidates this year (who got from 32 to 35% of vote), but even that may not be enough. His main chance - apathy on part of Abraham's voters, who may NOT be eager to switch their support to Rispone in run-off after bitter primary. Few of them will vote for Edwards in November, but many - may stay home.

2. Louisiana is a conservative state, where Trump is, basically, no liability (sometimes - even a plus). Impeachment talk doesn't help here, but - is NOT a main reason of Republican voting of whites: simple membership of Democratic candidates in one party with Barney Sanders and Elizabeth Warren is more, then enough, for most.

3. Acadiana moved hard right since 2007 (first time, when term limits were applied, and when majority of elcted state legislators from this area were Democrats). The Democratic label is so toxic in this part of the state (which, BTW, was so loyal to national Democratic party, that it refused to go for Barry Goldwater in 1964, when most of the Deep South did exactly that), that no white Democrats will represent the area after this year elections: only Blacks from majority-Black areas. Despite Democrats running well-respected and conservative-leaning candidates in SD-20 (Gisclair), SD-28  (Johnson & LeBas), SD-30 (Armes) and HD-32 (Hill) - none even made a run-off. Almost all Democratic losses (except SD-38, which elected Republicans before, and where Milkovich's win in 2015 could be considered an exception) were in this area: SD-28, HD-28, 30, 32, 38, 50 and 54.

4. As it already is in Alabama - Democratic party is, essentially "Black's party" in Louisiana: only 2 white Democratic state Senators remain (Luneau, who represents majority-Black district, and Smith, who was unopposed, and whose district may go Republican after him). And only 5-7 white Democrats will remain in House. Not long ago there were 20+ of them. Republican party is, correspondingly, a "White's party" in Louisiana.

5. The letter after name trumps almost everything: respect for past activity, personaly conservative views, and so on. National Democratic party is viscerally hated by majority (including many, who are still registered Democratic) in the state. Conservative Democrat Farnum lost special election to Republican Moss in 2018 by 15 in HD-33, but won this year by 13, after switching to Republican. I am reasonably sure, that Milkovich would have better chances as Republican in SD-38 too. It makes no sense for conservative-inclined voter to run as Democrat in this state, and in most of the South too.

There are other conclusions, but these are the most important. In "really Southern" (unlike Virginia, Texas, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia) states Democrats are destined for a long period in dire minority. So long, that author (who is 62) doesn't expect different situation in his lifespan.

6. Can a conservative Democrat still win in Louisiana and South in general? As Melinda White in HD-75  or Francis Thompson in HD-19 (where he is a sort of icon) demonstrated- yes. But - very rarely..... And AFTER them district will, probably, still go Republican...

[Frenchrepublican]

Good sum up of the situation. Now I think that Edwards shouldn’t count on Abraham’s voters seating out in the runoff, Trump will do all he can to drive them to the polls.

[Oryxslayer]

Good sum up of the situation. Now I think that Edwards shouldn’t count on Abraham’s voters seating out in the runoff, Trump will do all he can to drive them to the polls.

Yes, but there was a home-district affect for certain voters. JBE underpreformed clinton in a few of those lily-white Abraham counties, whereas he still was ablle to outprefrom her even in the worst rurals, if only by a bit. Abraham pulled voters who might not go to the polls for a off-cycle election to cast a ballot for their rep, and got Urban whites in Moorehouse and Rapides who might normally vote JBE (under the circumstances of this election) to vote for their incumbent. However a reversion to the mean in the north will only get JBE halfway there, other things need to happen to the total GOP vote.

But on the main topic, I think it is an excellent analysis. The only thing I have to add is that there are  and lot of Liberal democrats in Louisiana when compared to other deep south states. New Orleans is deep blue everywhere and the city is 33% white, and that's not including a few spillover suburbs to the south of the river in Jefferson or white sections of BR. It's not like in Alabama or Mississippi where you can count the precincts that vote dem without a substantial minority population using only your fingers. The thing is of course that these groups are easily drawn into AA seats, with the enthusiastic support of the AA caucus's.

[smoltchanov]

Now the promised post-runoff addition:

1. JBE continued to greatly overperform "normal" Democratic candidates in the state. His brand of "Southern populism": liberal on economy, conservative - on social issues, together with incumbency gave him about 10% more, then Collins-Greenup (more or less "standard liberal") got, and about 13% over Hillary's numbers. And 10-13% is a LOT in almost every election, even more - in close one. So - messaging and ideology still matters. JBE fits this state as glove fits a hand: Louisiana is one of the most socially conservative (may be - THE most one) states, but substatially less so (since, at least, Long time) on most economic issues. But "bold social progressive" would be crushed here, and WILL BE crushed for at least 20 years to come. On the other hand - JBE is, probably, "the last of Mohicans": i expect Republicans to win governorship in 2023, and hold this post for considerable time later.

2. Acadiana (by some reasons) went so hard right, that it became not conservative, but outright reactionary. The fact, that JBE got lowest percentage in 3rd CD (roughly corresponding to Acadiana and vicinities) says volumes: not "archaic" 5th, not "suburban conservative" 1st, but - 3rd.... And this is a part of state, which elected mostly Democratic legislative delegation in 2007, and Charlie Melancon - in 2008......

3. As typical in "real" Deep South states (together with Mississippi and Alabama) white Democrats became very endangered types in Louisiana: by my count there are 2 of them in future state Senate and 8 - in future state House. Approximately the same numbers as in Mississippi, though higher, then in Alabama. And at least 1 such Democrat in state Senate and 2-3 in House come from majority-Black districts. In general, with rare exceptions (New Orleans for example), Democratic party became a "Black's party" in Louisiana too.... Few remaining (almost always - more conservative) white Democrats from "non-big-urban or suburban" areas are proof of that, not refutation.

4. On the other hand - as almost everywhere in country - Democrats are gaining in suburbs: excellent result of JBE in Jefferson parish is a main proof, but even 40% in St. Tammany and 30% - in Livingston are not that bad.... Without such performance in suburbs JBE either wouldn't have won, or would have an extremely narrow victory with recount included in general picture.... To some extent suburbs compensated for Democratic party's collapse in rural areas.

[Antonio the Sixth]

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