Louisiana Runoff: What's the rating now?

[Donerail]

Here's what we know so far:
-Most of the polling had JBE just shy of a runoff, in the mid to high 40s, with Rispone edging Abraham by a couple points.
-Every runoff poll (which we should believe, given their accuracy in the first round) has JBE beating Rispone fairly comfortably (>5, outside the MoE).
-The GOP went from 57% combined to 44% for Vitter last time around (part of that was Vitter being Vitter, but still, you only need 2 points here)
-Historically, Black turnout usually increases for the runoff, an effect that is likely to be pronounced in this race b/c the main contest in the primary was between two GOP candidates.
-There are at least some Abraham voters who backed him because he's been their local congressman for a bit, an effect that doesn't exist for generic R business man (particularly after a nasty primary).

In conclusion, Likely R b/c Trends.

[Donerail]

His given name is John Bel, the family name is just Edwards.