Louisiana Runoff: What's the rating now?

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... on the surface, 51.8%R/47.4%D in the primary suggests Lean R, but Dem turnout was anomalously low and you can probably add the ~1% the independent named Landrieu got to the Dem tally.  The state legislative races and the lesser known statewide offices were all about 2:1 R/D, which suggests that either that LA is now one of the most Republican states in the country, even downballot in an odd year, or that this was viewed as something of an R primary and it's impressive Edwards got as much of the vote as he did.  Historically, Dems tend to gain several % from the "primary" to an R vs. D runoff.  

I think it's a toss up going in and Edwards ends up winning 51/49 or so.

However, R's are now able to override vetos in the state senate and are just 2 seats short of the veto override going into the state house runoffs.  One seat is almost a sure R pickup as the 2 R's combined for 63% in the first round.  There is an R vs. I rural seat that is probably a toss up and an R vs. D runoff in an R-held Trump +8 seat in the Baton Rouge suburbs that JBE needs to carry to win statewide, so the Dem could plausibly win there and deny the supermajority even if R's flip the other 2 seats.

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... on the surface, 51.8%R/47.4%D in the primary suggests Lean R, but Dem turnout was anomalously low and you can probably add the ~1% the independent named Landrieu got to the Dem tally.  The state legislative races and the lesser known statewide offices were all about 2:1 R/D, which suggests that either that LA is now one of the most Republican states in the country, even downballot in an odd year, or that this was viewed as something of an R primary and it's impressive Edwards got as much of the vote as he did.  Historically, Dems tend to gain several % from the "primary" to an R vs. D runoff.  

I think it's a toss up going in and Edwards ends up winning 51/49 or so.

However, R's are now able to override vetos in the state senate and are just 2 seats short of the veto override going into the state house runoffs.  One seat is almost a sure R pickup as the 2 R's combined for 63% in the first round.  There is an R vs. I rural seat that is probably a toss up and an R vs. D runoff in an R-held Trump +8 seat in the Baton Rouge suburbs that JBE needs to carry to win statewide, so the Dem could plausibly win there and deny the supermajority even if R's flip the other 2 seats.

The downballot races caught my eye as well. Even by Louisiana standards the Democratic vote share in the LG/AG races was abysmal.

How do you think the runoff goes? 

[Skill and Chance]

Staying at Tilt Edwards.

The prospect of an R supermajority in the legislature comes down to 2 rural seats where incumbent independents are in runoffs against R's and 3 inner suburb seats (1 in NOLA and 2 in Baton Rouge) that Trump won by 10ish or less where incumbent R's are in runoffs against D's. 

One of the rural seats is almost a certain flip as R's combined for >60% in the 1st round.   The other rural seat is being treated as a toss up, but I think it will also flip as Edwards should lose it pretty substantially. 

However, the most vulnerable suburban R seat in Baton Rouge only R+4 and includes a college campus.  I expect it to flip.  If JBE wins, he's probably winning by double digits there.  The R incumbent in an R+8 seat in New Orleans is probably a toss up.  She is well known for being the most moderate R in the legislature, but of course that kind of reputation didn't help Lance, Curbelo, Comstock, etc. in 2018.

[Skill and Chance]

On an another note,
Are LA republicans going to pick enough sites for a supermajority in the state house?

There are 8 seats which are going to a runoff

HD21 : this is a rural majority black district. The runoff features 1 independent candidate versus 1 democratic candidate, in the jungle primary democrats won 55% of the vote (there were 2 democrats versus 2 independents). Likely D.

HD50 : this is a very conservative rural district in the Bayou area, democrats held it before this year (the democratic incumbent is termed out), the runoff features 1 independent candidate versus 1 republican candidate as democrats didn't field any candidate, in the jungle primary republicans won a combined 63% share of the vote (the two independents won 37%). Certainly Safe R

HD62 : this a rural, conservative leaning, independent-held district located north of Baton Rouge, the independent incumbent won only 38% of the vote in the jungle primary, at the same time another independent candidate won 10% while two republican candidates won a combined 52% voting share. It's probably the most important district and also the most competitive one. Toss-up

HD68 : this is a suburban, R leaning, district near Baton Rouge, the jungle primary featured 2 democrats versus three republicans, the two democrats won 35% of the vote while the republicans won together 65% of the vote, JBE could win this district and could in theory provide some coatails to the democratic candidate but she remains a big underdog nevertheless. Likely R

HD70 : like HD68, this is a upscale suburban, R leaning district which is located in East Baton Rouge Parish, the lone democratic candidate won 38% of the vote in the jungle primary while the three republicans won 59% when combined together, JBE will probably win this district and could help the democratic candidate but she still remains the underdog considering she won less than 40% of the vote three weeks ago. Lean R

HD71 : this is a very republican district in Livingston Parish, in the jungle primary you had 1 democrat versus 4 republicans, the democrat ended up in 2nd position but she only won 15% (the 4 republicans won together 85% of the vote), obviously the democratic candidate is a big underdog. Safe R

HD94 :this is a fairly wealthy (by Louisiana standards) district which includes parts of NOLA and a few parts of Metairie, JBE won it by a large margin but at the legislative level the lone democratic candidate won only a small 34% share of the vote, at the same time the moderate republican incumbent had to face a challenge from the right but she dispatched it easily, the two republicans won togheter a combined 65% share of the vote. Even if this well off district is trending D, I doubt it will flip (Trump won it quite easily) and the democrat who is running looks very progressive. Likely R

HD105 : this district includes some NOLA exurbs and the west bank of the Mississippi River, the republican incumbent had to face a challenge from the right whom he dispatched, the lone democratic candidate won 39% of the vote while the two republicans won the remaining 61%, the democratic candidate is clearly the underdog even if a upset can't be ruled out. Likely R

I would be careful making too many assumptions from vote share in the 1st round.  Statewide, the 1st round was something of an R primary turnout wise (the generic legislative vote statewide was 65R/34D vs. 58 Trump/38 Clinton in 2016).  Many of these districts were treated as a primary for one side or the other (e.g. HD-94 was strong Trump R vs. anti-Trump moderate R vs. Dem) or had independents advance to the runoff (e.g. supporters of the D who did not advance in HD-21 or supporters of the R who did not advance in HD-62 could more plausibly shift to the independent than to a runoff opponent of the opposite party).

[Skill and Chance]

Staying at Tilt Edwards.

The prospect of an R supermajority in the legislature comes down to 2 rural seats where incumbent independents are in runoffs against R's and 3 inner suburb seats (1 in NOLA and 2 in Baton Rouge) that Trump won by 10ish or less where incumbent R's are in runoffs against D's. 

One of the rural seats is almost a certain flip as R's combined for >60% in the 1st round.   The other rural seat is being treated as a toss up, but I think it will also flip as Edwards should lose it pretty substantially. 

However, the most vulnerable suburban R seat in Baton Rouge only R+4 and includes a college campus.  I expect it to flip.  If JBE wins, he's probably winning by double digits there.  The R incumbent in an R+8 seat in New Orleans is probably a toss up.  She is well known for being the most moderate R in the legislature, but of course that kind of reputation didn't help Lance, Curbelo, Comstock, etc. in 2018.

The second rural seat that I assume you are talking about is a independent vs Republican race, ands it's one the independent picked up in a special. It is not a hard R area and has a lot of minorities - it's that area north of BR that is rural not suburban. Edwards I suspect actually carries LA-62 because it's built out of both Feliciana parishes that voted for JBE by over 50% in round 1. The Indie hot all the Dems last time during the runoff, in addition to some R's. So yes, it rightly a tossup and it should stay that way.

Yes, I think I messed up by saying both indies are incumbents.  Only the one in HD-62 is. 

[Skill and Chance]

On an another note,
Are LA republicans going to pick enough sites for a supermajority in the state house?

There are 8 seats which are going to a runoff

HD21 : this is a rural majority black district. The runoff features 1 independent candidate versus 1 democratic candidate, in the jungle primary democrats won 55% of the vote (there were 2 democrats versus 2 independents). Likely D.

HD50 : this is a very conservative rural district in the Bayou area, democrats held it before this year (the democratic incumbent is termed out), the runoff features 1 independent candidate versus 1 republican candidate as democrats didn't field any candidate, in the jungle primary republicans won a combined 63% share of the vote (the two independents won 37%). Certainly Safe R

HD62 : this a rural, conservative leaning, independent-held district located north of Baton Rouge, the independent incumbent won only 38% of the vote in the jungle primary, at the same time another independent candidate won 10% while two republican candidates won a combined 52% voting share. It's probably the most important district and also the most competitive one. Toss-up

HD68 : this is a suburban, R leaning, district near Baton Rouge, the jungle primary featured 2 democrats versus three republicans, the two democrats won 35% of the vote while the republicans won together 65% of the vote, JBE could win this district and could in theory provide some coatails to the democratic candidate but she remains a big underdog nevertheless. Likely R

HD70 : like HD68, this is a upscale suburban, R leaning district which is located in East Baton Rouge Parish, the lone democratic candidate won 38% of the vote in the jungle primary while the three republicans won 59% when combined together, JBE will probably win this district and could help the democratic candidate but she still remains the underdog considering she won less than 40% of the vote three weeks ago. Lean R

HD71 : this is a very republican district in Livingston Parish, in the jungle primary you had 1 democrat versus 4 republicans, the democrat ended up in 2nd position but she only won 15% (the 4 republicans won together 85% of the vote), obviously the democratic candidate is a big underdog. Safe R

HD94 :this is a fairly wealthy (by Louisiana standards) district which includes parts of NOLA and a few parts of Metairie, JBE won it by a large margin but at the legislative level the lone democratic candidate won only a small 34% share of the vote, at the same time the moderate republican incumbent had to face a challenge from the right but she dispatched it easily, the two republicans won togheter a combined 65% share of the vote. Even if this well off district is trending D, I doubt it will flip (Trump won it quite easily) and the democrat who is running looks very progressive. Likely R

HD105 : this district includes some NOLA exurbs and the west bank of the Mississippi River, the republican incumbent had to face a challenge from the right whom he dispatched, the lone democratic candidate won 39% of the vote while the two republicans won the remaining 61%, the democratic candidate is clearly the underdog even if a upset can't be ruled out. Likely R

I would be careful making too many assumptions from vote share in the 1st round.  Statewide, the 1st round was something of an R primary turnout wise (the generic legislative vote statewide was 65R/34D vs. 58 Trump/38 Clinton in 2016).  Many of these districts were treated as a primary for one side or the other (e.g. HD-94 was strong Trump R vs. anti-Trump moderate R vs. Dem) or had independents advance to the runoff (e.g. supporters of the D who did not advance in HD-21 or supporters of the R who did not advance in HD-62 could more plausibly shift to the independent than to a runoff opponent of the opposite party).

It's very unlikely that people who voted for the Trumpist candidate (in HD94) will vote for the dem candidate. Yeah, HD62 is tossup and it's of course possible that the independent incumbent grabs some R voters, I never said the contrary

I agree with you HD-62 and I actually think there is also serious potential for HD-21 to go to the Indie.   With regard to HD-94, my argument for making it a toss up is  1. R turnout was likely disproportionate in the 1st round and 2. it's likely that the moderate R attracted a substantial number of Dems and newly left-leaning indies who primarily wanted to block the Trumpist candidate.  I do not think she can count on those votes now that a Dem is in the runoff and JBE is probably heading for 60% in this district if he wins reelection.