Here's what we know so far:
-Most of the polling had JBE just shy of a runoff, in the mid to high 40s, with Rispone edging Abraham by a couple points.
-Every runoff poll (which we should believe, given their accuracy in the first round) has JBE beating Rispone fairly comfortably (>5, outside the MoE).
-The GOP went from 57% combined to 44% for Vitter last time around (part of that was Vitter being Vitter, but still, you only need 2 points here)
-Historically, Black turnout usually increases for the runoff, an effect that is likely to be pronounced in this race b/c the main contest in the primary was between two GOP candidates.
-There are at least some Abraham voters who backed him because he's been their local congressman for a bit, an effect that doesn't exist for generic R business man (particularly after a nasty primary).
In conclusion, Likely R b/c Trends.
In this case I agree, but Bevin is a different matter entirely.
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