Louisiana Runoff: What's the rating now? (user search)
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  Louisiana Runoff: What's the rating now? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Rate the runoff between Edwards (D) and Rispone (R) on November 16th
#1
Likely Edwards
#2
Lean Edwards
#3
Toss-Up/Tilt Edwards
#4
Toss-Up/Tilt Rispone
#5
Lean Rispone
#6
Likely Rispone
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results


Author Topic: Louisiana Runoff: What's the rating now?  (Read 5375 times)
I Can Now Die Happy
NYC Millennial Minority
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,949
United States
Political Matrix
E: 4.39, S: -4.70

P P
« on: October 13, 2019, 09:07:36 PM »

To quote Emperor Palpatine, "Now you will experience the FULL POWER of the Dark Side."

except you can replace 'dark side' with something more benevolent sounding

Basically Rispone and the GOP will absolutely savage JBE's reputation and flex Republican strength in anticipation for the Battles to Come next year.
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I Can Now Die Happy
NYC Millennial Minority
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,949
United States
Political Matrix
E: 4.39, S: -4.70

P P
« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2019, 05:54:31 PM »

For those saying Likely/Safe R, what do you make of this?

With the exception of 2014, the gains that Dems made from jungle primary to runoff suggests an Edwards win. Not saying he will win - these things could change, but it is a decent sign.

There's a huge difference between gaining from the mid-30s to the low 40s, and gaining from the high 40s to over 50%. You're going to soon deal with inflexible, partisan Republican voters. It is a very easy thing in the deep south for a Democrat to get to 40% statewide due to a large segment of blacks and a small chunk of left-of-center whites coalescing. The thing is, right-of-center whites make up close to 60% in these kinds of states.

JBE attaining 46.6% is laudable for a Democrat in the Deep South. Imagine if Marc Molinaro got 46% against Cuomo, or imagine Trump breaking 40% in New York State, or getting close to 40% in California.

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