Louisiana Runoff: What's the rating now?

[Oryxslayer]

Pure toss-up

If you believe that JBE will be able to win a significant numbers of Abraham’s voters then JBE is favoured (I’m doubtful about that), if you believe that JBE’s numbers in the primary are close to his ceiling, then he is the underdog.

Realistically JBE isn't going to be winning that many voters, it's going to be a question of turnout. This is a French style runoff, you should know that voters deciding to sit on their ass in round two is a common occurrence. Abraham pulled in some voters from his congressional district who would only be voting in off year elections because it's their rep, for instance. Similarly, If someone pulls consistently ahead in polls, then don't count out their voter just throwing in the towel.

[Oryxslayer]

Staying at Tilt Edwards.

The prospect of an R supermajority in the legislature comes down to 2 rural seats where incumbent independents are in runoffs against R's and 3 inner suburb seats (1 in NOLA and 2 in Baton Rouge) that Trump won by 10ish or less where incumbent R's are in runoffs against D's. 

One of the rural seats is almost a certain flip as R's combined for >60% in the 1st round.   The other rural seat is being treated as a toss up, but I think it will also flip as Edwards should lose it pretty substantially. 

However, the most vulnerable suburban R seat in Baton Rouge only R+4 and includes a college campus.  I expect it to flip.  If JBE wins, he's probably winning by double digits there.  The R incumbent in an R+8 seat in New Orleans is probably a toss up.  She is well known for being the most moderate R in the legislature, but of course that kind of reputation didn't help Lance, Curbelo, Comstock, etc. in 2018.

The second rural seat that I assume you are talking about is a independent vs Republican race, ands it's one the independent picked up in a special. It is not a hard R area and has a lot of minorities - it's that area north of BR that is rural not suburban. Edwards I suspect actually carries LA-62 because it's built out of both Feliciana parishes that voted for JBE by over 50% in round 1. The Indie hot all the Dems last time during the runoff, in addition to some R's. So yes, it rightly a tossup and it should stay that way.