This was an amazing night for Republicans.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

You do know republicans got 57.3% in the jungle primary in 2015, right?

2015 is meaningless without the context of Vitter's diaper scandal.

Abraham and Rispone are also separate candidates with relatively equally-sized bases, assuming that Rispone can consolidate all of Abraham's base in four weeks is a big ask.

Not really in this era

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Just to be clear..

During impeachment talk and other Democrats  not even earning a third of the vote in Louisiana we have a Democratic governor who is favored in the run off and will win historically uber GOP and largely white parishes.

Perspective can place an entirely different spin!

I mean, if we’re actually dealing in results instead of #trendsarereal memes then JBE has already proved he can do that in 2019.  He won a majority in JeffParish and came super close in St. Tammany, hit his benchmark in EBR, and consistently overran Clinton by over >10 pts in a primary.

Those suburban results align perfectly with the #trendsarereal meme

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Edwards hasn't lost yet.

But yeah, this is incredibly depressing on every level and I'm pretty close to exiting politics all together.

Honestly, I know it probably doesn’t seem like it to you, but IceSpear, Xingerui and I don’t do the whole “Safe R” Kentucky thing for no reason. I personally do it as a way to make some comic relief about an ugly aspect of our politics nowadays that most deep red states are so polarized that they wouldn’t even vote for Jesus Christ in the flesh if he were a Democrat. My coping mechanism is to thus preempt the inevitable disappointment from a loss in what could look like a promising race in such places by preparing myself for the worst.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Edwards hasn't lost yet.

But yeah, this is incredibly depressing on every level and I'm pretty close to exiting politics all together.

Honestly, I know it probably doesn’t seem like it to you, but IceSpear, Xingerui and I don’t do the whole “Safe R” Kentucky thing for no reason. I personally do it as a way to make some comic relief about an ugly aspect of our politics nowadays that most deep red states are so polarized that they wouldn’t even vote for Jesus Christ in the flesh if he were a Democrat. My coping mechanism is to thus preempt the inevitable disappointment from a loss in what could look like a promising race in such places by preparing myself for the worst.

And most others find it incredibly obnoxious and grating, including many who agree with the predictions. This is why I have IceSpear on ignore and you'll probably end up in it pretty soon, it wouldn't matter if I agreed with every single opinion you had, the manner in which they are expressed is insufferable regardless.

I'll try in the future to match your levels of obnoxiousness instead

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

the only reason I haven't hit the button for TrendsAreReal is so I can still report his posts

So basically you’re just giving the mods a bunch of BS busy work to sift through. Nice.

He's complained about posts being deleted, so no.

I complained about literally one post being deleted out of two and that one was when it got deleted for “trolling” when I wasn’t even trolling. I wish Steve Cooley had won that race in 2010 so we wouldn’t have to deal with the nauseating Kamala Harris fandom. If you see that as your greatest accomplishment in your (checks notes) 13 years on here... congrats?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

the only reason I haven't hit the button for TrendsAreReal is so I can still report his posts

So basically you’re just giving the mods a bunch of BS busy work to sift through. Nice.

He's complained about posts being deleted, so no.

I complained about literally one post being deleted out of two and that one was when it got deleted for “trolling” when I wasn’t even trolling. I wish Steve Cooley had won that race in 2010 so we wouldn’t have to deal with the nauseating Kamala Harris fandom. If you see that as your greatest accomplishment in your (checks notes) 13 years on here... congrats?

Nah my greatest achievement was being interviewed and quoted by the Wall Street Journal.

Was it in the Mental Health section?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Are you really cheering over Louisiana, Mississippi, and ing Kentucky?

Yes. All 3 were thought to be toss-up or safe Democratic not long ago. I really think we will take all 3 now. I see it as 3 races we have that Democrats don't.

...in what world were any of these considered "Safe Democratic" not long ago?


At any rate, drawing huge conclusions here is pretty dumb at this point. JBE's underperformance in the primary (compared to the 2015 runoff) was no greater than the GOP's underperformance in the primary compared to the 2016 presidential (16 points). We all know where the trends are pointing, but come on. 

There were a lot of people calling LA likely/Safe D