This was an amazing night for Republicans.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

the only reason I haven't hit the button for TrendsAreReal is so I can still report his posts

So basically you’re just giving the mods a bunch of BS busy work to sift through. Nice.

He's complained about posts being deleted, so no.

I complained about literally one post being deleted out of two and that one was when it got deleted for “trolling” when I wasn’t even trolling. I wish Steve Cooley had won that race in 2010 so we wouldn’t have to deal with the nauseating Kamala Harris fandom. If you see that as your greatest accomplishment in your (checks notes) 13 years on here... congrats?

Nah my greatest achievement was being interviewed and quoted by the Wall Street Journal.

[DrScholl]

I guess some people have to turn kibbles and bits into meatloaf to satisfy their hunger.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

the only reason I haven't hit the button for TrendsAreReal is so I can still report his posts

So basically you’re just giving the mods a bunch of BS busy work to sift through. Nice.

He's complained about posts being deleted, so no.

I complained about literally one post being deleted out of two and that one was when it got deleted for “trolling” when I wasn’t even trolling. I wish Steve Cooley had won that race in 2010 so we wouldn’t have to deal with the nauseating Kamala Harris fandom. If you see that as your greatest accomplishment in your (checks notes) 13 years on here... congrats?

Nah my greatest achievement was being interviewed and quoted by the Wall Street Journal.

Was it in the Mental Health section?

[538Electoral]

Are you really cheering over Louisiana, Mississippi, and ing Kentucky?

Yes. All 3 were thought to be toss-up or safe Democratic not long ago. I really think we will take all 3 now. I see it as 3 races we have that Democrats don't.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

the only reason I haven't hit the button for TrendsAreReal is so I can still report his posts

So basically you’re just giving the mods a bunch of BS busy work to sift through. Nice.

He's complained about posts being deleted, so no.

I complained about literally one post being deleted out of two and that one was when it got deleted for “trolling” when I wasn’t even trolling. I wish Steve Cooley had won that race in 2010 so we wouldn’t have to deal with the nauseating Kamala Harris fandom. If you see that as your greatest accomplishment in your (checks notes) 13 years on here... congrats?

Nah my greatest achievement was being interviewed and quoted by the Wall Street Journal.

Was it in the Mental Health section?

No.

[Adam Griffin]

Are you really cheering over Louisiana, Mississippi, and ing Kentucky?

Yes. All 3 were thought to be toss-up or safe Democratic not long ago. I really think we will take all 3 now. I see it as 3 races we have that Democrats don't.

...in what world were any of these considered "Safe Democratic" not long ago?


At any rate, drawing huge conclusions here is pretty dumb at this point. JBE's underperformance in the primary (compared to the 2015 runoff) was no greater than the GOP's underperformance in the primary compared to the 2016 presidential (16 points). We all know where the trends are pointing, but come on. 

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Are you really cheering over Louisiana, Mississippi, and ing Kentucky?

Yes. All 3 were thought to be toss-up or safe Democratic not long ago. I really think we will take all 3 now. I see it as 3 races we have that Democrats don't.

...in what world were any of these considered "Safe Democratic" not long ago?


At any rate, drawing huge conclusions here is pretty dumb at this point. JBE's underperformance in the primary (compared to the 2015 runoff) was no greater than the GOP's underperformance in the primary compared to the 2016 presidential (16 points). We all know where the trends are pointing, but come on. 

There were a lot of people calling LA likely/Safe D

[Adam Griffin]

Are you really cheering over Louisiana, Mississippi, and ing Kentucky?

Yes. All 3 were thought to be toss-up or safe Democratic not long ago. I really think we will take all 3 now. I see it as 3 races we have that Democrats don't.

...in what world were any of these considered "Safe Democratic" not long ago?


At any rate, drawing huge conclusions here is pretty dumb at this point. JBE's underperformance in the primary (compared to the 2015 runoff) was no greater than the GOP's underperformance in the primary compared to the 2016 presidential (16 points). We all know where the trends are pointing, but come on.  

There were a lot of people calling LA likely/Safe D

By "a lot of people" I assume you mean "Atlas posters and others randos on the internet"? Nobody with a lick of sense (and credentials) would be caught dead saying that about MS/KY given historical patterns, and the most that was likely ever claimed as far as actual ratings for LA would be Lean D.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rispone was a terrible candidate and will always be; as a result, Kennedy was the only alternative to beating JBE. Every Gov of LA have been reelected; pragmatic Foster, Bobby Jindall. Only Blanco was defeated.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This sure aged well.

[LAB-LIB]

This sure aged well.

What are you talking about? Tate Reeves won and Republican swept every race in Mississippi and flipped KY-AG and KY-SOS! It was an amazing election cycle for Republicans!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This sure aged well.

What are you talking about? Tate Reeves won and Republican swept every race in Mississippi and flipped KY-AG and KY-SOS! It was an amazing election cycle for Republicans!

The OP focused on LA-GOV.

[Skill and Chance]

This sure aged well.

What are you talking about? Tate Reeves won and Republican swept every race in Mississippi and flipped KY-AG and KY-SOS! It was an amazing election cycle for Republicans!

The OP focused on LA-GOV.

This is pretty old, but it's a good reminder that Southern runoffs mildly favor Dems nowadays.  Note that in addition to LA and GA (runoffs for everything), MS now has runoffs for all statewide offices except the federal Senate seats.   

[LAB-LIB]

This sure aged well.

What are you talking about? Tate Reeves won and Republican swept every race in Mississippi and flipped KY-AG and KY-SOS! It was an amazing election cycle for Republicans!

The OP focused on LA-GOV.

The conversation eventually shifted to other races.

[Pericles]

These threads are going to be quite funny when Edwards ends up winning the run off like 52 to 48 while winning 55 to 57% in Jefferson Parish and 54% in St Charles Parish

Pretty close, well done jimmie!

[jamestroll]

These threads are going to be quite funny when Edwards ends up winning the run off like 52 to 48 while winning 55 to 57% in Jefferson Parish and 54% in St Charles Parish

Pretty close, well done jimmie!

If I study anything granularly, I can get quite a precise prediction. See Virginia, even if I underestimated the Dems in Fairfax a bit. I predicted Loudoun 55 to 44 and PWC 57 to 42.