2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Pericles]

Yeah Atlas hasn't quite grasped out that Donald Trump is an unpopular President.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

WHAT!?! Trump is more unpopular in all the competitive Texas seats than he is in IA-2? This can’t be.

[Xing]

Clearly IL-06 is competitive and IL-14 is a Pure Toss-Up.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

WHAT!?! Trump is more unpopular in all the competitive Texas seats than he is in IA-2? This can’t be.

Yawn. Nice strawman. My point has nothing to do with that - of course, say, TX-24 will have a higher disapprove then IL-17, even if Trump won TX-24 by more. However, TX-24/=OK-5, and I quite doubt some of the numbers in this poll.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://arktimes.com/arkansas-blog/2019/11/12/filing-closes-today-democrats-searching-for-congressional-candidates

Likely R, but someone credible is running.

[lfromnj]

The NRCC never learns, I can't believe they spent money for the labor to do this .



From townhall https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2019/11/01/get-packing-gop-sent-moving-boxes-to-democrats-in-competitive-races-after-impe-n2555745/

Anyway VA 10th is probably the 3rd most pro impeach district VA ahead of the 4th and maybe even the 3rd district. Obviously the 8th and 11th are more pro impeach.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The DCCC released a poll one week ago that asked about Trump's job approval in a number of battleground districts:

https://2vmhfw1isbe32j3tgn3epw3x-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/One-Year-Out.pdf

In 2018, record Republican retirements were an early sign that Democrats were going to take back the House. 2020 is no different. Retirements of senior Republicans like Rep. Susan Brooks, the NRCC’s Recruitment Chair, and Rep. Walden, the Ranking Member on the Energy and Commerce Committee, “raise questions about GOP optimism in 2020.”

Not true! Retirements only matter if the seats are flippable!

Yeah Atlas hasn't quite grasped out that Donald Trump is an unpopular President.

How much of Atlas hasn't grasped it? 2%? 1%?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

The NRCC never learns, I can't believe they spent money for the labor to do this .



From townhall https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2019/11/01/get-packing-gop-sent-moving-boxes-to-democrats-in-competitive-races-after-impe-n2555745/

Anyway VA 10th is probably the 3rd most pro impeach district VA ahead of the 4th and maybe even the 3rd district. Obviously the 8th and 11th are more pro impeach.

>VA-10

>competitive

YeahOk

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

WHAT!?! Trump is more unpopular in all the competitive Texas seats than he is in IA-2? This can’t be.

Didn't you learn your lesson already from KY?

Yes clearly the lesson to be learned from KY is that the urban-rural trends are going to recede, and this race was in no way an special case

[Gustaf]

RRH has new Senate ratings: Cory Gardner now an underdog

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/11/09/rrh-elections-november-2019-senate-rankings/

RRH also thinks Rhode Island is the safest Senate seat in the country. Trigger warning for Atlas

The ratings for competitive races seemed fine to me but the ranking for safe states struck me as off.

[Gracile]

Former Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX-32) is still very much in for TX-17, and has officially filed:

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1194645393314856962

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Joyce Ann Elliott, Democrat senator from Arkansas Senate District 31 and former majority leader, has filed to run against French Hill in AR-02.

She was the 2010 nominee for this district and lost by 20% to Tim Griffin.
https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1194650003379085312?s=20

[MT Treasurer]

WHAT!?! Trump is more unpopular in all the competitive Texas seats than he is in IA-2? This can’t be.

Didn't you learn your lesson already from KY?

The KY election didn’t disprove the urban/suburban shifts. Far from it when you look at how strongly suburban (or exurban, if you will) counties like Boone, Kenton, Campbell, Oldham, Madison, etc. trended away from Bevin. It wasn’t just Jefferson and Fayette.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

RRH has new Senate ratings: Cory Gardner now an underdog

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/11/09/rrh-elections-november-2019-senate-rankings/

RRH also thinks Rhode Island is the safest Senate seat in the country. Trigger warning for Atlas

The ratings for competitive races seemed fine to me but the ranking for safe states struck me as off.

Though I actually agree with their classification of Rhode Island.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1195345051808870401
What?
A state senator survived in a clinton plus 2 district from this area so Wasserman moves it left?
A nearby delegate survives by 10 points in a clinton plus 5 district?
I'm not gonna complain about it being lean d. I call it tossup and tilt d. The problem is thinking Democrats did good in 2019 in Virginia

[Gracile]

Cook Political has made two rating changes:

https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

NJ-02: Lean D -> Tossup

VA-07: Tossup -> Lean D

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is there something we don't know about VA-07?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1195345051808870401
What?
A state senator survived in a clinton plus 2 district from this area so Wasserman moves it left?
A nearby delegate survives by 10 points in a clinton plus 5 district?
I'm not gonna complain about it being lean d. I call it tossup and tilt d. The problem is thinking Democrats did good in 2019 in Virginia

I can understand the argument for why it’s Lean D, but yeah, the 2019 results have nothing to do with that.

[MT Treasurer]

You could make a case for Lean D, but then he should probably rate VA-02 Lean D too.

[lfromnj]

Gonna do my analysis of competetive senate districts and house seats in VA 7th.
HD 72
Clinton +6, D incumbent + 6.5
HD 73 Clinton +7, D open seat, D+5
HD 68 Clinton +10, D+9 2019 incumbent
HD 27- Trump +4, R incubment +1 2019.
HD 66(this one im not sure if most of it is in VA 7th but part of it probably is.)
Clinton +4, R incumbent +10 albiet with a heavy african american population and heavy spending by the incumbent who was the Speaker.
SD-12
Clinton +2, R incumbent + 1.5
SD -10 CLinton +12, R incumbent and flip to D+10


Anyway I wouldn't take off year elections to analyze a presidential/congressional election too much but none of the Data I showed here shows that Spanberger is in an improved position, infact it looks worse for her as her District isn't a narrow Clinton or Trump district but Trump +7, overall this rating CHANGE was kinda absurd.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Nick Freitas is a pretty weak candidate though, so I can understand the rating change if that is who the Republicans are settling on, but I also think it's silly to have VA-2 as a tossup right now.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Nick Freitas is a pretty weak candidate though, so I can understand the rating change if that is who the Republicans are settling on, but I also think it's silly to have VA-2 as a tossup right now.

Out of curiosity, why is Freitas a weak candidate?

[Oryxslayer]

Nick Freitas is a pretty weak candidate though, so I can understand the rating change if that is who the Republicans are settling on, but I also think it's silly to have VA-2 as a tossup right now.

Out of curiosity, why is Freitas a weak candidate?

He was a really strong candidate until 2019. This year, he tried to have a family member primary a moderate GOPer in the state senate, which failed. He in general threw himself behind the slew of more conservative primaries, only one of which succeeded and ended up giving the democrat the seat. He than went around to all the out of state donors brandishing his credentials but in the process forgot to submit the paperwork to properly run for reelection. His seat ironically became a battleground. After losing a lawsuit to try and get on the ballot, he had to call in tons of donor favors to run a serious write-in campaign. Freitas ended up winning that write-in campaign, but only after groups like the NRA had to bail him out with millions in ads on how to write Freitas. His star has certainly diminished over the past eleven months.

Finally, there is the fact Freitas Repp's the rural north of the seat and not the suburbs where the votes are, but that is not his fault.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Stefanik really fell off the deep end...

https://twitter.com/elisestefanik/status/1195507322317086725?s=21

Her challenger raised $400K since the stunt

https://twitter.com/tedracobb/status/1195789626700632065?s=21

I don’t think she’ll lose BUT the district is only R+4 so 🤷🏻‍♂️

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Stefanik really fell off the deep end...

https://twitter.com/elisestefanik/status/1195507322317086725?s=21

Her challenger raised $400K since the stunt

https://twitter.com/tedracobb/status/1195789626700632065?s=21

I don’t think she’ll lose BUT the district is only R+4 so 🤷🏻‍♂️

She won by almost 14% in a DEM wave year. This is a Trump +14 district. She will not lose.