2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Frenchrepublican]

The NRCC is on twitter right now writing press releases against Wexton in VA-10.




How are we this stupid? How?

I feel with her district it's simply that a lot of big donor party insider types live there. The party kept spending tons of cash in VA-10 last year despite it being an obvious triage.

This is very true. I would also add that Comstock's connections to party officials likely played a role in the high amount of money spent here. Comstock has worked in various capacities in Republican party politics, and it wouldn't surprise me if some of her colleagues in high places were able to sway the NRCC to spend money on her race. An incumbent who didn't have a long history as a party insider likely would have been left for dead.

The fact she was a woman was certainly also a reason why they tried to save her. Men were not given the benefit of the doubt and they didn't hesitate to triage Rothfus or Blum

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1206989150253174784?s=20

For impeachment : 45%
Against : 50%

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1206989150253174784?s=20

For impeachment : 45%
Against : 50%

Plus Kind won by 20% in 2018 so its not like he's in any danger. If Trump is that much underwater, an impeachment vote won't hurt Kind too much.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1206989150253174784?s=20

For impeachment : 45%
Against : 50%

Thats just the 2016 numbers. Decent news for dems, actually.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1206989150253174784?s=20

For impeachment : 45%
Against : 50%

Thats just the 2016 numbers. Decent news for dems, actually.

Might be why so many vulnerable dems are onboard with the impeachment. Internal polls must look pretty decent.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1206989150253174784?s=20

For impeachment : 45%
Against : 50%

Thats just the 2016 numbers. Decent news for dems, actually.

Might be why so many vulnerable dems are onboard with the impeachment. Internal polls must look pretty decent.

I mean, Brad Parscale was tweeting one from OK-05 that even had it like 45/50 so MTE

[Gass3268]

Another day of Republicans releasing polls that look bad for them. Today the Trump camp released a poll that only showed them up by 3 points in 30 seats that Trump won in 2016.

https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1207017842337624066?s=20

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1206989150253174784?s=20

For impeachment : 45%
Against : 50%

Considering Trump won this seat by 5 to get his razor-thin margin in WI, him being at 42-55 seems like a bad thing and the most important part of this poll, not the impeachment numbers.

[Pollster]

Another day of Republicans releasing polls that look bad for them. Today the Trump camp released a poll that only showed them up by 3 points in 30 seats that Trump won in 2016.

https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1207017842337624066?s=20

Only 38% say less likely to reelect because of impeachment in a series of districts where...38% of voters are already voting definitely Republican?

Impeachment is not the issue Republicans think it is. If I were the pollster, I'd be advising them to unify around a popular healthcare message, pronto.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1206989150253174784?s=20

For impeachment : 45%
Against : 50%

But ElectionsGuy and Atlas told me Kind was vulnerable/this was a sleeper for the GOP/trends/rural WI will swing GOP!

The thing is that MuLaw has Trump approval rate at 47/50 so if he is doing so badly in this district it means that he is probably doing far better in WOW counties than in 2016. It would be funny to see WOW counties swinging hard toward him while sparsely populated counties in West WI swing against him

[MT Treasurer]

Never read too much into polls of single congressional districts, especially with small sample sizes and if they’re only *reported* on Twitter.

[lfromnj]

Never read too much into polls of single congressional districts, especially with small sample sizes and if they’re only *reported* on Twitter.

This is MUlaw but did they even weight the 3rd district or is it just a regular sub sample?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1206989150253174784?s=20

For impeachment : 45%
Against : 50%

But ElectionsGuy and Atlas told me Kind was vulnerable/this was a sleeper for the GOP/trends/rural WI will swing GOP!

The thing is that MuLaw has Trump approval rate at 47/50 so if he is doing so badly in this district it means that he is probably doing far better in WOW counties than in 2016. It would be funny to see WOW counties swinging hard toward him while sparsely populated counties in West WI swing against him

Or more likely, the northern chunk of the state found mostly in CDs 6, 7, and 8. The 2018 gov race and the 2019 court race showed that the GOP could lose ground in WOW compared to pre-2016, and lose ground in the Western towns but still win. They just couldn't lose too much ground, and the Fox valley/upstate/Twin cities exurbs need to keep their GOP majorities, and ideally build upon them.

[MT Treasurer]

Never read too much into polls of single congressional districts, especially with small sample sizes and if they’re only *reported* on Twitter.

lol. If this was a poll showing Trump unpopular in GA or something you'd cream your pants over it.

Believe it or not, but I wouldn’t. There’s so much evidence out there which points to Trump being in a world of trouble in GA that there’d be no need to cling to random tweets.

[wbrocks67]

Brad Parscale strikes again. So Trump won all of those districts and the "Generic Dem" is only down by 3? Without the incumbents even being named? That's not a good poll for Rs.

[wbrocks67]

YouGov has Dems +8 in GCB

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ua3ar45wbg/econTabReport.pdf

[Gracile]

Brad Parscale strikes again. So Trump won all of those districts and the "Generic Dem" is only down by 3? Without the incumbents even being named? That's not a good poll for Rs.

While these numbers certainly aren’t the best for Trump, I feel like polls that lump all the Trump-Democratic districts together are not very instructive. There’s a world of difference between somewhere like GA-06 and MN-07 in terms of support for impeachment, so to mush these districts together really misses the bigger picture.

[Frenchrepublican]

Never read too much into polls of single congressional districts, especially with small sample sizes and if they’re only *reported* on Twitter.

lol. If this was a poll showing Trump unpopular in GA or something you'd cream your pants over it.

Believe it or not, but I wouldn’t. There’s so much evidence out there which points to Trump being in a world of trouble in GA that there’d be no need to cling to random tweets.

Trump is still more likely to win GA than Wisconsin, I know trends are real but still, when you look at 2018 results it's clear where Trump is the more popular. (unpopular opinion on Atlas)

[OneJ]

Never read too much into polls of single congressional districts, especially with small sample sizes and if they’re only *reported* on Twitter.

lol. If this was a poll showing Trump unpopular in GA or something you'd cream your pants over it.

Believe it or not, but I wouldn’t. There’s so much evidence out there which points to Trump being in a world of trouble in GA that there’d be no need to cling to random tweets.

Trump is still more likely to win GA than Wisconsin, I know trends are real but still, when you look at 2018 results it's clear where Trump is the more popular. (unpopular opinion on Atlas)

Georgia swung towards Abrams more than Wisconsin did in favor of Evers. That alone makes me hesitant to say that Georgia is less likely to flip than Wisconsin at the moment.

[Frenchrepublican]

Never read too much into polls of single congressional districts, especially with small sample sizes and if they’re only *reported* on Twitter.

lol. If this was a poll showing Trump unpopular in GA or something you'd cream your pants over it.

Believe it or not, but I wouldn’t. There’s so much evidence out there which points to Trump being in a world of trouble in GA that there’d be no need to cling to random tweets.

Trump is still more likely to win GA than Wisconsin, I know trends are real but still, when you look at 2018 results it's clear where Trump is the more popular. (unpopular opinion on Atlas)

Georgia swung towards Abrams more than Wisconsin did in favor of Evers. That alone makes me hesitant to say that Georgia is less likely to flip than Wisconsin at the moment.

No doubt that trends are far worse for republicans in GA than in WI (where they are quite good), but the thing is that Walker lost while Kemp won, as of now GA is still less competitive than WI

[Xing]

I do think WI is more likely to flip than GA, but that doesn't mean GA is anywhere near safe for Trump.

[Gass3268]

The Generic Ballot is basically unchanged since the midterms.

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1207421214798561282?s=20

[wbrocks67]

But I was told this would destroy the Dems careers...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Generic Ballot is basically unchanged since the midterms.

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1207421214798561282?s=20

Dems in disarray, impeachment backfire, Hunter Biden, Hillary Clinton, read the transcript, etc. etc.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

RCP's 2020 GCB aggregate has it D +7.2 which is up 1.4 from last week and levels almost exactly with where the Dems were for 2018 (+7.3)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2020_generic_congressional_vote-6722.html

Obviously, it's useless this far out but the narrative that impeachment is destroying the Democrats is hot garbage.