2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Roll Roons]

IE came out with new Senate ratings today, all in favor of Democrats:
https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate/2020-senate-ratings-april-3-2020

Colorado is Tilt D from pure Tossup
Maine is pure Tossup from Tilt R
New Hampshire is Solid D from Likely

[Libertas Vel Mors]

IE came out with new ratings today, all in favor of Democrats:
https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate/2020-senate-ratings-april-3-2020

Colorado is Tilt D from pure Tossup
Maine is pure Tossup from Tilt R
New Hampshire is Solid D from Likely

> tilt D Colorado


lol

[Gracile]

Tilt D is a bit generous to Gardner, though it's nice that the pundits seem much more willing to say that incumbents are underdogs when facing tenuous reelection chances (far better than they were the last cycle, at least).

[Roll Roons]

Tilt D is a bit generous to Gardner, though it's nice that the pundits seem much more willing to say that incumbents are underdogs when facing tenuous reelection chances (far better than they were the last cycle, at least).

Forecasters always seem to be cautious, especially when there's an incumbent and we're months away from the general election.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

NY-24 D Primary internal shows Dana Balter up big:
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1247550570099085313?s=20

[Lisa's voting Biden]

TX-22 runoff poll shows Nehls up 33:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1247775591417303041?s=20

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult has GCB at Dems +8, 46-38%

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000171-56ae-d92d-a5ff-deaeba860000

[Person Man]

Morning Consult has GCB at Dems +8, 46-38%

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000171-56ae-d92d-a5ff-deaeba860000

That's pretty stable, then?

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult has GCB at Dems +8, 46-38%

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000171-56ae-d92d-a5ff-deaeba860000

That's pretty stable, then?

Yeah, most polls that have done the GCB recently have had the Dem lead at about 6-9. It's been really steady lately.

[wbrocks67]

YouGov also has it at +9, which has been consistent as well

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/ogvntw3mu9/econTabReport.pdf

[Pollster]

Interesting piece on AR-02, which was just added to the red-to-blue list.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1247929924498923524

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1248240443730595840
It seems that VA10th won't be a battleground district anymore

[Continential]

Interesting piece on AR-02, which was just added to the red-to-blue list.

It was on the list in 2018, and they triaged it and dismissed it in like the fall and the Democrats had like 45% in there in 2018.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1248240443730595840
It seems that VA10th won't be a battleground district anymore

Damn, nothing in Chicagoland, though they probably expect Oberweis to self-fund. Is it safe to assume that the Philly spending covers NJ-03, PA-01 and PA-07?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Interesting piece on AR-02, which was just added to the red-to-blue list.

It was on the list in 2018, and they triaged it and dismissed it in like the fall and the Democrats had like 45% in there in 2018.

52-46 to be exact.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1248240443730595840
It seems that VA10th won't be a battleground district anymore

Damn, nothing in Chicagoland, though they probably expect Oberweis to self-fund. Is it safe to assume that the Philly spending covers NJ-03, PA-01 and PA-07?

Yeah, but if I were them I would ignore PA-7

[DaWN]

It seems that VA10th won't be a battleground district anymore

Was it ever going to be...?

[lfromnj]

The GOP are really trying for TX 7th,although they aren't really trying as much for TX 32.

[Frenchrepublican]

The GOP are really trying for TX 7th,although they aren't really trying as much for TX 32.

Yeah, they are very optimistic about Hunt, he seems to be a very credible candidate but obviously the bad trends in this district will be a problem.

[ajc0918]

Looks like the NRCC is not playing offense in FL-26 and FL-27.

Donna Shalala is just too powerful.

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1248240443730595840
It seems that VA10th won't be a battleground district anymore

Damn, nothing in Chicagoland, though they probably expect Oberweis to self-fund. Is it safe to assume that the Philly spending covers NJ-03, PA-01 and PA-07?

It's probably more a case of them not wanting to spend money in the most expensive markets (Chicago, New York, LA) until much later in the cycle. The Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC made a similar list of spending earlier this week that excluded those markets for that reason:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/06/pelosi-aligned-super-pac-fall-ads-167016

Here's their list for comparison:

Total Spending Breakdown by Market:
Minneapolis: $6,756,785
Philadelphia: $6,130,195
Atlanta: $4,485,505
Detroit: $4,456,640
Las Vegas: $3,493,525
Miami: $3,290,080
Cedar Rapids, Iowa: $2,241,105
Houston: $2,205,190
Boston: $1,965,310
San Antonio, Texas: $1,622,480
Des Moines, Iowa — $1,410,695
Portland, Maine: $1,313,085
Wilkes-Barre, Pa.: $1,401,735
Dallas: $1,128,300
Norfolk, Va.: $1,116,650
Phoenix: $1,106,115
Richmond, Va.: $1,095,275
Pittsburgh: $1,014,970
Harrisburg, Pa.: $975,620
Lansing, Mich.: $913,735
Omaha, Neb.: $895,940
Quad Cities, Iowa: $845,760
Bangor, Maine: $751,650
Rochester, Minn.: $486,915
El Paso, Texas: $202,546
Fargo, N.D.: $200,580
Mankato, Minn.: $122,515
Presque Isle, Maine: $89,760
Ottumwa, Iowa: $40,920

[wbrocks67]

Rs clearly worried about Scott Perry in PA-10. You love to see it

[Pollster]

Interesting piece on AR-02, which was just added to the red-to-blue list.

It was on the list in 2018, and they triaged it and dismissed it in like the fall and the Democrats had like 45% in there in 2018.

The piece addresses this, and explains why the trends are favorable. Learned quite a bit, myself, actually.

[Brittain33]

It seems that VA10th won't be a battleground district anymore

Not to worry, these are just reservations. There are still opportunities for them to cancel and divert $8-9 million to VA-10 in fall.